Severe Thunderstorm Warning 5, NWS Duluth, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
417 AM CDT SUN MAY 28 2006

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS OUR NWRN
WI ZONES THIS MORNING...WHICH DEVELOPED AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PROPAGATING NEWD THROUGH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. STRONG
INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS
RESULTED IN SEVERE HAIL ACROSS MUCH OF WISCONSIN SINCE YESTERDAY
EVENING. HOWEVER ACROSS OUR CWA...THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH AND MOVE EAST OF OUR CWA AROUND SUNRISE.

STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY
AHEAD OF A FAIRLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT OVER
THE DAKOTAS. BECAUSE OF THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW AND RESULTING
WAA...WARM AIR ALOFT SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
TODAY...ESPECIALLY WITHOUT ANY ORGANIZED FORCING MECHANISM NEAR
OUR CWA. HOWEVER LIKE YESTERDAY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS AND WRN MN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING ALONG A COLD FRONT PROGRESSING EWRD ACROSS THIS AREA.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD TRACK EWRD TONIGHT. REACHING OUR WRN ZONES
AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH SOME FURTHER PROGRESSION EWRD
MONDAY MORNING.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN REDEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND
INTENSIFY ACROSS OUR FCST AREA LATE MONDAY MORNING OR EARLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
REACH THE TWIN PORTS AREA BY MID-AFTERNOON...THEN CONTINUE TO
MOVE EWRD ACROSS THE REST OF OUR CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT...HOWEVER THEY SHOULD CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE ERN
TWO THIRDS OVER OUR FCST AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ETA40 MUCAPE
VALUES ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE TO THE 4000-6000 J/KG RANGE BY
MIDDAY ON MONDAY...ALTHOUGH THIS IS PROBABLY SOMEWHAT OVERDONE DUE
TO UNREALISTICALLY HIGH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES. IN ANY EVENT
STRONG INSTABILITY IS ANTICIPATED MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER THE VERTICAL DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED BE AS
FAVORABLE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...MAINLY DUE TO WEAK DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR. BUT EVEN SO...HELICITY VALUES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
CONSIDERING THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY TO RESULT IN SOME SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM TODAY ACROSS OUR WRN AND SRN ZONES
TODAY. HOWEVER COOLER CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED FOR AREAS NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR...ALTHOUGH READINGS SHOULD NOT BE AS COOL AS
YESTERDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY
DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.

BERDES

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