Severe Thunderstorm Warning 201, NWS Duluth, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...MESOSCALE UPDATE...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
415 PM CDT MON JUL 31 2006

.UPDATE...
SEVERE STORM OVER WRN ITASCA COUNTY CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED..WITH INTENSE REFLECTIVITY CORE WELL ABOVE 40 KFT AND
EXCELLENT 4D REFL/VEL STRUCTURE. THIS STORM WILL TRACK EAST ALONG
THE SFC BOUNDARY EVIDENT IN MESOANALYSIS DATA FROM ROUGHLY
MARCELL... TO BETWEEN COOK AND VIRGINIA... TO NEAR ELY.  SURFACE
AIRMASS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY IS EXTREMELY UNSTABLE
WITH CAP AOA 4000 J/KG..WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AOA 50 KT.  IT APPEARS
THIS STORM WILL HAVE EASY ACCES TO EXTREME INSTABILITY.. AND THUS
HAS POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT WIND/HAIL DAMAGE OVER THE NEXT
2 HOURS ALONG 30 MILE WIDE CORRIDOR INVOF THE SFC BOUNDARY.

STORM FARTHER NORTHEAST.. NEAR ORR.. IS A BIT FARTHER NORTH OF THE
SFC BOUNDARY..AND LIKELY TAPPING SLIGHTLY ELEVATED UPDRAFT PARCELS.
THUS.. HIGH-END WIND/HAIL THREAT WITH THIS STORM MAY BE DIMINISHING.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR CARLTON/SOUTHERN
     ST. LOUIS-CROW WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-NORTHERN CASS-PINE-
     SOUTHERN AITKIN-SOUTHERN CASS.

WI...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR ASHLAND-BAYFIELD-
     BURNETT-DOUGLAS-IRON-PRICE-SAWYER-WASHBURN.

LS...NONE.

 MILLER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
720 AM CDT MON JUL 31 2006

LSZ121-140>148-162-MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-
006>009-011230-
BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI-GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS MN-
GRAND MARAIS TO TACONITE HARBOR MN-
TACONITE HARBOR TO SILVER BAY HARBOR MN-
SILVER BAY HARBOR TO TWO HARBORS MN-TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH MN-
DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI-PORT WING TO SAND ISLAND WI-
SAND ISLAND TO BAYFIELD WI-OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR WI-
OPEN WATERS OF LAKE SUPERIOR WEST OF A LINE FROM SAXON HARBOR WI
TO GRAND PORTAGE MN-KOOCHICHING-NORTHERN ST. LOUIS-
NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN ITASCA-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-
SOUTHERN LAKE/LAKESHORE-SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-NORTHERN CASS-
SOUTHERN ITASCA-SOUTHERN CASS-CROW WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-
SOUTHERN AITKIN-CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-PINE-DOUGLAS-BAYFIELD-
ASHLAND-IRON-BURNETT-WASHBURN-SAWYER-PRICE-
720 AM CDT MON JUL 31 2006

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOPING ALONG A COLD
FRONT MOVING IN FROM WESTERN MINNESOTA TODAY...WHICH WILL PROGRESS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION BY TONIGHT. THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS ALL OF
NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. THE MAIN THREAT
WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THERE IS ALSO A RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS THIS MORNING ALONG THE BEACHES FROM THE TWIN PORTS ALONG
THE SOUTH SHORE...WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
BY AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND
AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

DAP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1136 AM CDT MON JUL 31 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 AM     TSTM WND DMG     SNOW BANK LAKE          47.99N 91.42W
07/31/2006                   LAKE               MN   CO-OP OBSERVER

            A FEW 4 TO 6 INCH DIAMETER TREES DOWN.

&&

LILES