Severe Thunderstorm Warning 112, NWS Duluth, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
256 PM CDT FRI JUL 28 2006

DISCUSSION...THE HEAT HAS MOVED INTO THE NORTHLAND. HOT TEMPS AND
HIGH HUMIDITIES WERE FOUND THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST SFC OBS SHOW BRAINERD WAS 98 DEGREES
/102 HEAT INDEX/...AITKIN WAS 97 /117 HEAT INDEX/...AND SIREN WAS
95 /104 HEAT INDEX/.

FORECAST FOCUS ON THE SHORT TERM CONVECTION ANTICIPATED ALONG THE
OF SFC BOUNDARY. AT 3 PM...THE FRONT WAS POSITIONED IN NE
MINNESOTA ALONG A LINE FROM ELY...SW NEAR HIBBING...AND PARK
RAPIDS. THIS FRONT WILL BE FOCUS FOR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO EVENING. IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.
MUCAPES RANGE FROM 2000-3000 J/KG WITH DEEP SHEER APPROACHING 40
KTS. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREAT...WITH HAIL AND AN
ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE.

A SECONDARY ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS/MCS WILL POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/SAT
AS FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. CURRENT WV
IMAGERY SHOWS THIS WAVE IN SW MANITOBA IN THE STRONG UPR LVL NW
FLOW. MCS DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT IN NW/WC MN...THEN
RACING EAST ACROSS CEN/NRN MN ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. WHERE THE
FRONT WILL STALL EXACTLY IS THE BIG QUESTION. ADJUSTED POPS
SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH...BUT MODELS ARE FLIP- FLOPPING IN THE
PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT/QPF. ATTM...BROUGHT UP POPS TO 30-40 FOR
MOST AREAS AND 50 IN NRN WI. THESE STORMS WILL BE SOMEWHAT
ELEVATED...SO DAMAGING WINDS WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME REACHING THE
SFC...ALTHOUGH NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. LARGE HAIL IS THE PRIMARY
THREAT HERE.

NO CHANGES TO FCST PAST SATURDAY. BUILDING OF UPR RIDGE AND
SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS SET US UP FOR SOME EXTREME HEAT SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
PLENTY OF 90S AND ISOLATED 100S READINGS POSSIBLE. .

NEXT DECENT CHANCE FOR STORMS IS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. NO
SIGNIFICANT RAIN FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD CURRENTLY
EXPECTED.

&&

.POINT FORECAST TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  64  82  65  86 /  40  30  30  10
INL  59  82  62  90 /  20  20  20  20
BRD  66  91  68  95 /  40  30  20  10
HYR  67  87  67  95 /  50  40  30  10
ASX  66  82  66  88 /  40  30  30  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CROW WING-PINE-
     SOUTHERN AITKIN-SOUTHERN CASS.

WI...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BURNETT-PRICE-
     SAWYER-WASHBURN.

LS...NONE.

BRANDT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1250 PM CDT FRI JUL 28 2006

LSZ121-140>148-162-MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-
006>009-291800-
BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI-GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS MN-
GRAND MARAIS TO TACONITE HARBOR MN-
TACONITE HARBOR TO SILVER BAY HARBOR MN-
SILVER BAY HARBOR TO TWO HARBORS MN-TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH MN-
DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI-PORT WING TO SAND ISLAND WI-
SAND ISLAND TO BAYFIELD WI-OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR WI-
OPEN WATERS OF LAKE SUPERIOR WEST OF A LINE FROM SAXON HARBOR WI
TO GRAND PORTAGE MN-KOOCHICHING-NORTHERN ST. LOUIS-
NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN ITASCA-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-
SOUTHERN LAKE/LAKESHORE-SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-NORTHERN CASS-
SOUTHERN ITASCA-SOUTHERN CASS-CROW WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-
SOUTHERN AITKIN-CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-PINE-DOUGLAS-BAYFIELD-
ASHLAND-IRON-BURNETT-WASHBURN-SAWYER-PRICE-
1250 PM CDT FRI JUL 28 2006

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISKE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM PINE
RIVER...TO AITKIN...WILLOW RIVER...HAYWARD...TO PHILLIPS. TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S ACROSS THE AREA WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. ISOLATED LOCATIONS WILL
APPROACH 100 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SOME OF THESE
STORMS BECOMING SEVERE. DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY
THREATS.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLE MCS WILL MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN FORECAST AREA GENERALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THESE STORMS WILL
THEN TRACK EAST OVER THE NORTHLAND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THERE
IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SOME OF THESE STORMS BECOMING SEVERE. DAMAGING
WIND AND HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SOME OF THESE
STORMS BECOMING SEVERE. DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY
THREATS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND AGAIN
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

BRANDT

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