Wind Advisory 26, NWS Dodge City, KS

Barber County, KS, Clark County, KS, Comanche County, KS, Edwards County, KS, Ellis County, KS, Finney County, KS, Ford County, KS, Grant County, KS, Gray County, KS, Haskell County, KS, Hodgeman County, KS, Kiowa County, KS, Lane County, KS, Meade County, KS, Ness County, KS, Pawnee County, KS, Pratt County, KS, Rush County, KS, Scott County, KS, Seward County, KS, Stafford County, KS, Stevens County, KS, Trego County, KS

000 
WWUS73 KDDC 282208
NPWDDC

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
508 PM CDT SUN MAY 28 2006

...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...

.BY 500 PM CDT WIND SPEEDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS HAD DROPPED
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE WIND ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR THE REGION
EARLIER HAS NOW BEEN CANCELLED. BRISK AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

KSZ030-031-043>046-063>066-075>081-085>090-282315-
/O.CAN.KDDC.WI.Y.0026.000000T0000Z-060529T0000Z/
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-PAWNEE-STAFFORD-
GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-PRATT-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-
CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WAKEENEY...CEDAR BLUFF RESERVOIR...
HAYS...ELLIS...SCOTT CITY...DIGHTON...NESS CITY...LA CROSSE...
RUSH CENTER...GARDEN CITY...KALVESTA...JETMORE...HANSTON...
LARNED...BURDETT...ST. JOHN...STAFFORD...HUDSON...ULYSSES...
SUBLETTE...SATANTA...CIMARRON...MONTEZUMA...DODGE CITY...
BUCKLIN...KINSLEY...LEWIS...GREENSBURG...HAVILAND...PRATT...
HUGOTON...MOSCOW...LIBERAL...KISMET...MEADE...FOWLER...ASHLAND...
MINNEOLA...COLDWATER...PROTECTION...MEDICINE LODGE...KIOWA...
SUN CITY
508 PM CDT SUN MAY 28 2006

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY. 

$$

JOHNSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
237 AM CDT SUN MAY 28 2006

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE PLACEMENT OF
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOMORROW AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.  LOOKING AT
RAOBS AND SATELLITE...NAM DID NOT INITIALIZE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN
U.S. VERY WELL AT ALL. GFS SEEMED TO HAVE A MUCH BETTER HANDLE ON IT
AS WELL AS LOWER LEVEL TEMPS.  TODAY EXPECT ANOTHER HOT DAY ACROSS
THE CWA WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100.  DRYLINE
FORECAST TO SETUP IN ABOUT THE SAME PLACE AS YESTERDAY BETWEEN KGCK
AND KDDC. NOT ANY UPPER LEVEL FORCING TO SPEAK OF THIS AFTERNOON SO
DAYTIME HEATING AND SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG DRYLINE WILL BE
ONLY MEANS TO GET ANY STORMS TO DEVELOP.  DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
ACTIVITY...BUT AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOULD MOVE ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP NNE WHICH
SHOULD KEEP FAR EASTERN ZONES FREE FROM ANY PRECIP. WITH LACK OF
UPPER LEVEL FORCING...SHOULD SEE ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS DIE OFF
WITH SUNSET.  TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL START TO ENTER INTO FAR
WESTERN CWA.  DO NOT EXPECT ANY STORMS ALONG THE FRONT UNTIL MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT THERE IS SOME COOLER AIR BEHIND IT.  THERE SHOULD BE
A FAIRLY DECENT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT BY MORNING OVER AREA WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER FAR SOUTHEAST KEEPING DEW POINTS HIGH AND
TEMPERATURES AROUND 70.  FURTHER WEST BEHIND THE FRONT LOWS SHOULD
FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S.

FRONT WILL STALL OUT FROM JUST SOUTH OF KHYS DOWN TOWARD
MEADE/LIBERAL. AGAIN IT LOOKS LIKE BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING DURING
THE AFTERNOON WILL BE NORTH OF AREA SO FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE MAIN
SOURCE OF LIFT.  THEREFORE...DECREASED POPS OVER WESTERN CWA FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND KEPT THEM IN THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.  EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES
COOLER OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES AND ONLY ABOUT 5 DEGREES
COOLER OVER THE SOUTHEAST.  MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS CWA AS LOW LEVEL JET PICKS UP AND
IMPINGES ON FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL ONLY MOVE SLIGHTLY SOUTHEAST
DURING THE NIGHT.  IN ADDITION...FAIRLY STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL COMBINE WITH A LITTLE COOLING AT 500MB TO INCREASE INSTABILITY
FURTHER WEST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT STORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WEST AND NORTH.  BEST THETA-E ADVECTION WILL
REMAIN OVER EASTERN ZONES SO KEPT HIGHEST POPS THERE...BUT DID
INCREASE TO 30-40 PERCENT OVER THE WEST THROUGH THE NIGHT.

DAYS 3-7...
NO EARTH SHATTERING CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE GOING EXTENDED
FORECAST. BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS/PRECIP WILL BE TUESDAY THRU WED
NIGHT WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION. THINGS SHOULD
BEGIN TO DRY OUT TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK WITH UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE PLAINS. AS PREVIOUS SHIFT NOTED, TEMPS MAY NOT GET
OUT OF THE 70S ON TUESDAY DEPENDING UPON THE CLOUD COVER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED WED-FRI WITH A COOLER MORE MOIST AIRMASS
IN PLACE AS SHOWN BY THE 00Z ECMWF. HIGHS WILL LIKELY REACH THE 90
DEGREE MARK AGAIN BY SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  97  65  92  63 /  10  10  30  50
GCK 100  60  90  60 /   0   0  20  40
EHA  98  58  90  62 /   0   0  20  30
LBL 101  61  92  61 /   0   0  20  30
HYS 100  67  91  62 /  10  10  30  50
P28  97  71  98  69 /   0   0  50  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

FN28/27

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
434 AM CDT SUN MAY 28 2006

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-290945-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
434 AM CDT SUN MAY 28 2006 /334 AM MDT SUN MAY 28 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KANSAS...SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO
NEAR 100 WILL CREATE A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER. ANY OUTDOOR BURNING
TODAY IS NOT ADVISED.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF
A LINE FROM WAKEENEY TO MEADE. THESE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SEVERE. THEY COULD PRODUCE SOME HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF DIMES...WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND DEADLY LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS GREATER
THAN 60 MPH MONDAY MAINLY EAST OF A LARNED TO COLDWATER LINE. WEST
OF THIS LINE STORMS COULD STILL PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS ALSO A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

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