Severe Thunderstorm Warning 177, NWS Dodge City, KS

000 
WWUS53 KDDC 230206
SVSDDC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
907 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006

KSC033-230230-
/O.CON.KDDC.SV.W.0177.000000T0000Z-060623T0230Z/
COMANCHE KS-
907 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM CDT
FOR COMANCHE COUNTY...

AT 905 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A LINE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 16 MILES EAST OF COLDWATER TO 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
BUTTERMILK...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
WILMORE TO 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BUTTERMILK...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25
MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  RURAL RESIDENCES OF COMANCHE COUNTY...
  BUTTERMILK...

THE LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY
RURAL AREAS OF THE INDICATED COUNTY.

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

LAT...LON 3737 9912 3718 9954 3701 9952 3701 9900
      3734 9901

$$

GRZYWACZ

000 
WWUS53 KDDC 230227
SVSDDC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
927 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006

KSC033-230237-
/O.EXP.KDDC.SV.W.0177.000000T0000Z-060623T0230Z/
COMANCHE KS-
927 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR COMANCHE COUNTY EXPIRES AT 930
PM CDT...

THE WARNED STORM HAS WEAKENED AND NO LONGER POSES A THREAT TO LIFE OR
PROPERTY.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED 5 MILES EAST OF PROTECTION AT 855 PM 
CDT.

LAT...LON 3737 9912 3718 9954 3701 9952 3701 9900
      3734 9901

$$

GRZYWACZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
334 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...
MAIN QUESTION THIS CYCLE WILL AGAIN BE CONVECTION.

CONVECTION ALREADY BLOWING UP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OUT INTO
NORTHWEST KANSAS AND THAT WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT.
NONE OF THE 12Z OR 15Z MODELS HAD FORECAST ANY OF THE HUGE
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER NOW IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA, NORTHEAST COLORADO
AND FAR NORTHWEST KANSAS WHICH IS GREATLY DISTRESSING. EVEN THE
USUALLY GOOD FSL RUC13 AND RUC20 MISSED IT ENTIRELY. THE MUCH
VAUNTED 12Z WRF IN PARTICULAR WAS HORRIBLE IN BOTH INITIALIZATION
AND SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS THROUGH ABOUT 12 HOURS. THE 18Z WRF DID
INITIALIZE THE CONVECTION BUT IMMEDIATELY LOST IT IN ITS FORECASTS.
PER DISCUSSION WITH GLD WILL HOLD ON TILL THE LAST MINUTE IN HOPES
WE CAN DEDUCE ANY TRENDS FROM IT THAT WILL HELP WITH THE FORECAST.

GIVEN THE ABOVE FOR TONIGHT WILL PLAY WHAT THE MODELS DID FORECAST,
NAMELY ANOTHER MCS OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF COLORADO MOVING EAST AND
SOUTHEAST INTO KANSAS AND THE PANHANDLES ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT
WHICH EXTENDS FROM AROUND COS TO BETWEEN EHA AND LBL AND SOUTH
ACROSS THE EAST TX PANHANDLE. MUCAPES IN THAT AREA WILL BE IN THE
NEIGHBORHOOD OF 2500 J/KG WITH SUFFICIENT LOWER LEVEL SHEAR ALONG
THE BOUNDARY THAT STORMS MAY EVEN BE ABLE TO SPIN UP SOME ISOLATED
TORNADOES. AGREE COMPLETELY WITH SPC WATCH 545 FOR MUCH OF SOUTHWEST
KANSAS AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A LATER WATCH INTO THE
PANHANDLES. HAVE ALSO GONE CATEGORICAL FOR PRECIP FROM DDC WEST
WHERE THE BIGGEST THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS EXISTS. THE
BEST THREAT FOR TORNADOES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR THE SURFACE FRONT IN MY
FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES.

AFTER TONIGHT THE SYNOPTIC SCALE SETUP SUPPORTS A FEW MORE NIGHTS OF
LARGE SCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS FIRING OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN AND
MOVING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS REGION. HAVE LEFT
SOME SMALLER POPS IN PLACE AGAIN FOR TOMORROW NIGHT AS ANOTHER
SYSTEM DEVELOPS SOMEWHERE AND MOVES THROUGH THE CWA. GIVEN THE
MODELS PERFORMANCE AND THEIR HUGE UNCERTAINTIES, HAVE KEPT POPS LOW
WITH THIS FEATURE.

FOR TEMPERATURES HAVE KEPT THINGS A BIT COOLER BOTH NIGHTS AND ALSO
ON SATURDAY AS THE MOS SEEMS TO GET CARRIED AWAY WITH WARMING IN
SPITE OF THE RAIN COOLED AIR REINFORCING THE POLAR FRONT TO OUR
SOUTH EACH NIGHT.

DAYS 3-7...
LATE IN THE PERIOD CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE WITH THE WEST COAST/ERN PACIFIC LOW AND LOCATION OF OUR
UPPER RIDGE AXIS AROUND THE CNTL CONUS. AM THEREFORE LEANING TOWARDS
PERSISTENCE ON DAYS 6 AND 7. UNTIL THEN ANY WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE NW
FLOW LATE THIS WEEKEND STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME PCPN
SOMEWHERE IN WRN KS. AT THIS TIME AM UNABLE TO NARROW DOWN TIMING OR
LOCATION DOWN DUE TO HOW MODELS HANDLE THESE WEAKER WAVES EMBEDDED
IN THE FLOW. THE CURRENT GRIDS SEEM TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE WITH
THIS SO WILL RETAIN SMALL POPS ACROSS ALL OF OUR CWA SAT NIGHT AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. AFTER THIS MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A COOL AND DRYER
PATTERN THROUGH MID WEEK. CURRENT GRIDS FOR HIGHS STILL LOOK ON
TRACK SINCE SEE LITTLE REASON TO GO MUCH WARMER BASED ON PROGGED EC
OR GFS 85H TEMPS. DID LOWER OUR OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES AS THE
MEX GUIDANCE ACTUALLY NOT LOOKING TOO BAD THIS MORNING WITH LOWS IN
THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  62  85  62  85 /  90  10  10 20
GCK  61  86  61  85 /  90  10  20 30
EHA  61  84  61  87 / 100  10  20 10
LBL  62  86  62  87 / 100  10  20 10
HYS  62  85  62  84 /  30   0  10 20
P28  63  85  63  86 /  30  10  10 10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SVR TSTM WATCH 545 TIL 11PM CDT.

&&

FN08/18
JOHNSON/BURGERT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1157 AM CDT THU JUN 22 2006

KSZ030-031-043>046-063>066-077>081-087>090-231000-
BARBER-CLARK-COMANCHE-EDWARDS-ELLIS-FINNEY-FORD-GRAY-HODGEMAN-KIOWA-
LANE-MEADE-NESS-PAWNEE-PRATT-RUSH-SCOTT-STAFFORD-TREGO-
1157 AM CDT THU JUN 22 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KANSAS...SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
AS SMALL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS IN THE PREVAILING NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW PATTERN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

KSZ061-062-074>076-084>086-231000-
GRANT-HAMILTON-HASKELL-KEARNY-MORTON-SEWARD-STANTON-STEVENS-
1157 AM CDT (1057 AM MDT) THU JUN 22 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ACROSS
COLORADO ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE WITH THE
MAIN DANGER BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. TORRENTIAL RAINS
WITH THE STORMS MAY CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN
URBAN AREAS WHERE RUNOFF IS LIMITED. AS THE STORM PROGRESS INTO
FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS TONIGHT THEY WILL ENCOUNTER WINDS TURNING WITH
HEIGHT. AS A RESULT THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES AT THAT TIME FROM FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO THE
PANHANDLES.  THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE GENERALLY SOUTH AND WEST
OF A LINE FROM LAKIN TO SUBLETTE AND LIBERAL. THE STORMS SHOULD BE
PRETTY MUCH OVER FOR KANSAS BY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
AS SMALL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS IN THE PREVAILING NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW PATTERN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BEGINNING EARLY THIS EVENING MAINLY
WEST OF A LIBERAL TO SATANTA TO DEERFIELD LINE.

JOHNSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED MEASURED GUST...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
809 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0750 PM     TSTM WND GST     10 N ELKHART            37.15N 101.89W
06/22/2006  M58 MPH          MORTON             KS   MESONET

&&

JOHNSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
810 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0802 PM     TSTM WND GST     6 W WILBURTON           37.08N 101.86W
06/22/2006  E60.00 MPH       MORTON             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

26

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
815 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0810 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 S ELKHART             36.99N 101.89W
06/22/2006  E80 MPH          MORTON             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

LEE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
820 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     TORNADO          14 N LIBERAL            37.25N 100.94W
06/22/2006                   SEWARD             KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            A BRIEF TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN AND DISSIPATED QUICKLY. NO
            DAMAGE WAS OBSERVED.

0755 PM     TSTM WND GST     ELKHART                 37.00N 101.89W
06/22/2006  M59 MPH          MORTON             KS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            MEASURED BY TELEVISION STATION CHASE CREW.

0755 PM     HAIL             5 S RUSH CENTER         38.39N 99.31W
06/22/2006  E0.88 INCH       RUSH               KS   PUBLIC

            WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH BLEW DOWN TREE LIMBS TWO INCHES IN
            DIAMETER. MORE THAN TWO INCHES OF RAIN FELL.

0625 PM     HAIL             6 S RUSH CENTER         38.38N 99.31W
06/22/2006  E0.75 INCH       RUSH               KS   PUBLIC

            2.4 INCHES OF RAIN.

&&

01

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
828 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0810 PM     TSTM WND GST     11 WSW HUGOTON          37.12N 101.53W
06/22/2006  E60 MPH          STEVENS            KS   PUBLIC

&&

JOHNSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
834 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 PM     HAIL             8 W ST. JOHN            38.00N 98.91W
06/22/2006  E1.00 INCH       STAFFORD           KS   PUBLIC

&&

26