Severe Thunderstorm Warning 140, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
212 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS WITH HANDLING OF
UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS.  NAM
CONTINUES TO SHOW A CUTOFF CIRCULATION OVER SW KS BY 00Z SUN WHILE
THE GFS KEEPS IT AN OPEN WAVE AND THEN CUTS IT OFF OVER EASTERN TX.
THE WRF KEEPS UPPER LOW OVER N CTRL KS AND THEN BRINGS TROUGH
EASTWARD INTO MO/AR AREA.  WILL GO CLOSER TO THE GFS/NAM SOLUTIONS
WITH A SLOWER MOVEMENT SINCE THIS KEEPS BETTER CONTINUITY WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTS.  LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT EXPECT A
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE AS STRONG VORT MOVES OUT
OF EASTERN NM AND COLD FRONT STARTS TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD.  UPPER
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLING QUICKLY ALLOWING FOR RAPID
DESTABILIZATION OVER AREA. WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS AT OR ABOVE 60 IN
MOST LOCATIONS AND TRAINING ECHOES ALONG FRONT EXPECTED...SHOULD SEE
WIDESPREAD 1-2+ INCH RAINFALL TOTALS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA BY SAT
MORNING.

WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SKIES BEING MOSTLY CLOUDY TOMORROW WITH SYSTEM
OVER REGION.  EXPECT TO SEE CONTINUED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
MUCH OF THE CWA WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE EASTERN ZONES STILL
AHEAD OF MAIN TROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY...BUT IT LOOKS
LIKE SYSTEM WILL BE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW WESTERN ZONES TO WARM
UP INTO THE MID 80S WHILE FURTHER EAST MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY STAY
IN THE LOWER 80S AND POSSIBLY UPPER 70S DEPENDING ON PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE.  SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST IN
PRECIPITATION BY SAT NIGHT AND MOST AREAS BEING DRY BY SUN MORNING.
DID KEEP IN SOME VERY LOW POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST FOR EARLY SUN...BUT
SYSTEM SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST THAT MOST AREAS SEE
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY AFTERNOON.  TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 WITH BUILDING RIDGE OVER
THE ROCKIES.

DAYS 3-7...

THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST TODAY WAS TO ADD POPS IN
THE WED-THURS TIME FRAME WITH NOW MOST OF THE NUMERICAL MODEL
SOLUTIONS SUGGESTING THAT THE TAIL END OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
DROP SOUTH INTO OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS APPEARS TO BE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A FAST MOVING IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
UNITED STATES. THERE COULD BE A COUPLE OF DAYS OF HIGH TERRAIN
CONVECTION IN THE POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE REGIME MOVING OUT OVER
WESTERN KANSAS WED AND THURS EVENING. I ALSO LOWERED TEMPS SOME
ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND WILL BASE IT MORE ON THE ECMWF 850MB PROGS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  62  83  62  89 /  90  30  30  10
GCK  60  84  60  90 /  90  20  20  10
EHA  58  85  60  90 /  90  20  20  10
LBL  60  85  61  91 /  90  30  30  10
HYS  62  84  62  90 /  90  30  20  10
P28  67  82  64  89 /  90  50  40  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

FN28/27
GRZYWACZ/LACY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
457 AM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-171000-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
457 AM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006 /357 AM MDT FRI JUN 16 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KANSAS...SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT SOUTHWEST KANSAS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP
OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AND FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS...MAINLY
WEST OF HUGOTON TO LAKIN BY 1 PM CDT...NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT OF
THE COLD FRONT AND THE LEE TROUGH. THE STORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP
ALONG THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REST OF WESTERN KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON. SUFFICIENT WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW STORMS
TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS OR LARGER AND WIND GUSTS OF
60 MPH OR GREATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REST OF SOUTHWEST
KANSAS...INCLUDING GARDEN CITY...DODGE CITY...WAKEENEY...AND HAYS
BEGINNING MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...THEN PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS INCLUDING PRATT AND MEDICINE LODGE BEGINNING EARLY THIS EVENING.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO EXPECTED OVER A LARGE PORTION OF SOUTHWEST
KANSAS WITH TOTAL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING ONE INCH FOR MANY LOCATIONS.
SOME ISOLATED AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER TO
THE OKLAHOMA STATE LINE MAY RECEIVE TWO TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN BY
SATURDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS...INCLUDING THE PRATT AND MEDICINE LODGE AREAS
THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEEDED OVER ALL OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

UMSCHEID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
625 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 E DODGE CITY          37.76N 99.96W
06/16/2006  E60 MPH          FORD               KS   NWS EMPLOYEE

            AT THE AIRPORT

&&

06

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