Frost Advisory 2, NWS Dodge City, KS

000 
WWUS73 KDDC 112044
NPWDDC

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
344 PM CDT WED OCT 11 2006

...FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT...

.A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL USHER IN COLDER AIR TONIGHT. SKIES WILL BE CLOUDY
MUCH OF THE NIGHT BUT SHOULD BE CLEARING TOWARD SUNRISE. THE
COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND COLD AIR WILL HELP BRING OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES DOWN TO BELOW FREEZING. 

KSZ030-031-045-046-120445-
/O.UPG.KDDC.FR.Y.0002.061012T0900Z-061012T1400Z/
/O.NEW.KDDC.FZ.W.0001.061012T0900Z-061012T1400Z/
TREGO-ELLIS-NESS-RUSH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WAKEENEY...CEDAR BLUFF RESERVOIR...
HAYS...ELLIS...NESS CITY...LA CROSSE...RUSH CENTER
344 PM CDT WED OCT 11 2006

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM CDT THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A FREEZE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM CDT THURSDAY. THE
FROST ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S FOR A FEW
HOURS AROUND SUNRISE.

A FREEZE WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP
TO 28 DEGREES OR LOWER FOR AT LEAST ONE HOUR.   THOSE WITH
AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS IN THE WARNED AREA ARE ADVISED TO HARVEST
OR PROTECT TENDER VEGETATION. ALSO, POTTED PLANTS NORMALLY LEFT
OUTDOORS SHOULD BE COVERED OR BROUGHT INSIDE AWAY FROM THE COLD.

$$

GERARD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
320 AM CDT WED OCT 11 2006

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE HIGH TEMPS TODAY, THEN OVERNIGHT LOWS NEXT
FEW NIGHTS.

CANADIAN AND MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TODAY WITH SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME MAY MIX WITH SNOW LATER TONIGHT BUT NO
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. 850MB FORECAST TEMPS HAVE WARMED ALSO A FEW
DEGREES WITH THE COLDEST AIR IN THE NORTHEAST CWA. AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT THINK THE SKIES WILL CLEAR MOSTLY
IN THE NORTH CWA AS SHOWN IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS. FARTHER SOUTH THE
SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW A MID LEVEL MOIST LAYER WITH CLOUDS. SO WITH
THIS IN MIND WILL GO WITH A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE 4 COUNTIES IN
THE NORTH, TREGO, ELLIS, NESS, AND RUSH FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. THEN AS SKIES CLEAR ON THURSDAY NIGHT AGAIN
ANOTHER POSSIBILITY OF FROST AND FREEZE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA.

HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE WARM IN THE SOUTH IN THE 60S AND ONLY IN THE
LOW 50S NORTH WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION AND CLOUDS. THEN TONIGHT
THINK LOWS WILL BE IN UPPER 20S AROUND HAYS BUT DO NOT THINK IT WILL
LAST LONG ENOUGH FOR A HARD FREEZE YET, SO WENT WITH THE FROST
ADVISORY. THEN FOR THURSDAY CURRENT HIGHS IN THE MID 50S LOOK GOOD
AND FOR THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS MAY DIP BELOW FREEZING DEPENDING ON
WINDS, DEWPOINTS, AND ANY LEFT OVER CLOUDS.

DAYS 3-7...

ONLY A MINOR TWEAK OR TWO WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FCST. MODELS ARE
CONTINUING THE TREND OF A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK TO THE WEEKEND SYSTEM
WHICH WOULD NOT BODE WELL FOR PRECIP CHANCES HERE. WE ONLY HAVE SLGT
CHC GOING SO I LEFT ALONE. THE 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS NOT COME
INTO AWIPS AS OF 3 AM SO I DONT HAVE THE BENEFIT OF LOOKING AT ITS
TAKE ON THE SITUATION. IF THE GFS IS RIGHT, THE 8 TO 10 DAY PERIOD
COULD BE INTERESTING. THE MODEL DIGS A POSITIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH
INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AS COLD AIR SPILLS DOWN THE PLAINS AHEAD OF
IT. COULD SEE SOME SNOW LATER ON THE MONTH AROUND HERE...TIME WILL
TELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  59  33  54  30 /  10  30   0   0
GCK  57  32  54  30 /  10  30   0   0
EHA  66  33  55  33 /   0  20   0   0
LBL  65  34  56  33 /   0  20   0   0
HYS  51  28  51  28 /  20  30   0   0
P28  64  37  53  32 /   0  20   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR KSZ030-KSZ031-
KSZ045-KSZ046.

&&

FN06/27