Severe Thunderstorm Warning 93, NWS Cheyenne, WY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
146 PM MDT WED JUL 26 2006

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WEAK BOUNDARY SCOOTS
THROUGH EASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. EXPECTING PULSE TYPE
STORMS WITH A LACK OF SHEAR PREVENTING MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION.
FREEZING LEVELS ARE VERY HIGH...SO IT WILL BE HARD TO GET SEVERE
HAIL OUT OF ANY STORMS. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AFTER MIDNIGHT...PERHAPS PROVIDING AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO LATE TONIGHT EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. AS
THIS SYSTEM EXITS TOMORROW MORNING...WE WILL MAKE THE CHANGE BACK
TO AN OPPRESSIVELY HOT AND DRY PATTERN.

.LONG TERM...FRI THROUGH WED. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA FRI WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO HINT AT SOME MID LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE UPPER HIGH...AND SAT THE
MONSOONAL MOISTURE STREAM IS FORECAST TO REACH THE FORECAST AREA.
THE MONSOONAL PLUME WILL STAY IN THE AREA SUN. MON THE UPPER HIGH
WILL SHIFT FAR ENOUGH EASTWARD TO ALLOW SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO
DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST AREA. UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY
TUE BUT WILL BEGIN TO VEER TO MORE WESTERLY IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE
ENERGY PASSING TO OUR NORTH. FLAT QUASI ZONAL FLOW IS PROGGED FOR
WED. SURFACE CONDITIONS WILL BE HOT AND DRY FRI WITH MOISTURE
SUPPRESSED WELL TO OUR SOUTH. SAT AND SUN WILL STAY HOT BUT WITH A
SMALL CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS AS
DIURNALLY BASED INSTABILITY INTERACTS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL DRAG A WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MON. MON
WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HOT BUT WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF MAINLY LATE DAY
STORMS. WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES A FEW MORE
DEGREES TUE WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF STORMS. WED WILL BE DRY WITH
APPROXIMATELY NORMAL TEMPS AS THE BETTER MOISTURE IS SHUNTED TO OUR
SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...POMEROY
LONG TERM....JR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
515 AM MDT WED JUL 26 2006

NEZ001>003-019>021-054-055-WYZ059-060-067>070-271130-
SIOUX-DAWES-BOX BUTTE-SCOTTS BLUFF-BANNER-MORRILL-KIMBALL-
CHEYENNE-CONVERSE-NIOBRARA-PLATTE-GOSHEN-CHEYENNE FOOTHILLS-
PINE BLUFFS-
515 AM MDT WED JUL 26 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WESTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
MUCH OF THE REGION.  A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG
ENOUGH...ESPECIALLY IN THE PANHANDLE...TO PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

UNSEASONABLY HOT WEATHER WILL OCCUR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGHS
AROUND 95 TO 100 IN WYOMING AND 100 TO 105 IN THE PANHANDLE.  SOME
LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

WYZ061>066-271130-
SOUTHWEST CARBON-NORTH CARBON-SNOWY RANGE-NORTH LARAMIE RANGE-
LARAMIE VALLEY-LARAMIE RANGE-
515 AM MDT WED JUL 26 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.  ONE OR TWO STORMS COULD
PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

UNSEASONABLY HOT WEATHER WILL OCCUR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  SOME LATE DAY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.