Severe Thunderstorm Warning 67, NWS Cheyenne, WY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
200 PM MDT FRI JUN 23 2006

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. INSTABILITY AROUND THE BLACK
HILLS AND NORTHEASTERN WYOMING IS SPREADING INTO THE NORTHERN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS ARE IN THE 50S IN
THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE WITH A CONVERGENCE
ZONE ALONG THE PINE RIDGE. I EXPECT TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
NEAR THE PINE RIDGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. A WEAK WAVE IS
TRACKING EAST OVER DOUGLAS AT 19Z. THIS TOO WILL HELP INITIATE
SOME LOCAL CONVECTION. WEST AND NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE SURFACE
WINDS EXTEND TO EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE. CONVECTION WILL
END OVERNIGHT. SATURDAY WILL SEE A SLIGHTLY BACK DOOR FRONT DRIFT
INTO THE CWA FROM THE BLACK HILLS. THIS WILL GENERATE SOME UPSLOPE
SURFACE FLOW THAT WILL LIKELY REACH THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LARAMIE
RANGES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE LARAMIE
RANGE AND LARAMIE VALLEY THEN SHIFT OUT ONTO THE PLAINS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IS MUCH LOWER...SO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. SLIGHTLY COOLER ON SUNDAY WITH A
BACK DOOR HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE WILL SHUNT CONVECTION
INTO COLORADO.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DUE TO RIDGE ALONG WEST COAST WILL
MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN AS NORTH PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVES TOWARDS PACIFIC
NORTHWEST BY MID WEEK. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME DIURNAL CYCLE LOOKS LIKE
BEST BET AT THIS POINT WITH UPSLOPE FLOW EACH DAY WITH AFTERNOON
STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS MOVING OUT OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS BY
EVENING. THE WILD CARD IS ANY SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE
THAT COULD ENHANCE THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...BUT NO CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING. LITTLE CONVECTION EXPECTED MONDAY DUE TO LACK OF
INSTABILITY. OTHERWISE WEAK INSTABILITY IN PLACE FOR AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...COPLEY
LONG TERM....EISE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
950 PM MDT FRI JUN 23 2006

NEZ001>003-019>021-054-055-WYZ060-068-070-241545-
SIOUX-DAWES-BOX BUTTE-SCOTTS BLUFF-BANNER-MORRILL-KIMBALL-
CHEYENNE-NIOBRARA-GOSHEN-PINE BLUFFS-
950 PM MDT FRI JUN 23 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WESTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF
A LUSK TO ALLIANCE LINE LATER TONIGHT.  THE ACTIVITY WILL
PRODUCE LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS AND A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAINFALL.

SEVERE DROUGHT AND MODERATE WILDFIRE DANGER CONTINUES FOR THE
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCUR EACH DAY.

SEVERE DROUGHT CONTINUES FOR THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.

MODERATE WILDFIRE DANGER CONTINUES...EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHERN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

WYZ061>066-241545-
SOUTHWEST CARBON-NORTH CARBON-SNOWY RANGE-NORTH LARAMIE RANGE-
LARAMIE VALLEY-LARAMIE RANGE-
950 PM MDT FRI JUN 23 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MODERATE WILDFIRE DANGER EXISTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCUR EACH DAY.

MODERATE WILDFIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

WYZ059-067-069-241545-
CONVERSE-PLATTE-CHEYENNE FOOTHILLS-
950 PM MDT FRI JUN 23 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MODERATE WILDFIRE DANGER EXISTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED EACH DAY.

MODERATE WILDFIRE DANGER EXISTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

WEILAND

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
724 PM MDT FRI JUN 23 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0714 PM     HAIL             15 S HARRISON           42.47N 103.88W
06/23/2006  M1.25 INCH       SIOUX              NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MWEILAND

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
950 PM MDT FRI JUN 23 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0347 PM     HAIL             26 S HARRISON           42.31N 103.88W
06/23/2006  E0.50 INCH       SIOUX              NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

0547 PM     HAIL             10 S REDBIRD            43.10N 104.27W
06/23/2006  M1.25 INCH       NIOBRARA           WY   TRAINED SPOTTER

0547 PM     HAIL             20 N LUSK               43.05N 104.45W
06/23/2006  M1.75 INCH       NIOBRARA           WY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0547 PM     HAIL             10 S REDBIRD            43.10N 104.27W
06/23/2006  M1.25 INCH       NIOBRARA           WY   TRAINED SPOTTER

0610 PM     HAIL             15 NE LUSK              42.91N 104.24W
06/23/2006  M0.75 INCH       NIOBRARA           WY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0655 PM     TSTM WND GST     NE HARRISON             42.69N 103.88W
06/23/2006  E60 MPH          SIOUX              NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST PUSHED A FIRETRUCK INTO A CAR.

&&

DDEAL