Severe Thunderstorm Warning 61, NWS Cheyenne, WY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
200 PM MDT FRI JUN 23 2006

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. INSTABILITY AROUND THE BLACK
HILLS AND NORTHEASTERN WYOMING IS SPREADING INTO THE NORTHERN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS ARE IN THE 50S IN
THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE WITH A CONVERGENCE
ZONE ALONG THE PINE RIDGE. I EXPECT TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
NEAR THE PINE RIDGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. A WEAK WAVE IS
TRACKING EAST OVER DOUGLAS AT 19Z. THIS TOO WILL HELP INITIATE
SOME LOCAL CONVECTION. WEST AND NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE SURFACE
WINDS EXTEND TO EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE. CONVECTION WILL
END OVERNIGHT. SATURDAY WILL SEE A SLIGHTLY BACK DOOR FRONT DRIFT
INTO THE CWA FROM THE BLACK HILLS. THIS WILL GENERATE SOME UPSLOPE
SURFACE FLOW THAT WILL LIKELY REACH THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LARAMIE
RANGES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE LARAMIE
RANGE AND LARAMIE VALLEY THEN SHIFT OUT ONTO THE PLAINS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IS MUCH LOWER...SO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. SLIGHTLY COOLER ON SUNDAY WITH A
BACK DOOR HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE WILL SHUNT CONVECTION
INTO COLORADO.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DUE TO RIDGE ALONG WEST COAST WILL
MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN AS NORTH PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVES TOWARDS PACIFIC
NORTHWEST BY MID WEEK. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME DIURNAL CYCLE LOOKS LIKE
BEST BET AT THIS POINT WITH UPSLOPE FLOW EACH DAY WITH AFTERNOON
STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS MOVING OUT OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS BY
EVENING. THE WILD CARD IS ANY SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE
THAT COULD ENHANCE THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...BUT NO CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING. LITTLE CONVECTION EXPECTED MONDAY DUE TO LACK OF
INSTABILITY. OTHERWISE WEAK INSTABILITY IN PLACE FOR AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...COPLEY
LONG TERM....EISE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
931 AM MDT FRI JUN 23 2006

NEZ001>003-019>021-054-055-WYZ060-068-070-241545-
SIOUX-DAWES-BOX BUTTE-SCOTTS BLUFF-BANNER-MORRILL-KIMBALL-
CHEYENNE-NIOBRARA-GOSHEN-PINE BLUFFS-
931 AM MDT FRI JUN 23 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WESTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE...PRODUCING PENNY
SIZE HAIL OR LARGER... OR WINDS OF AT LEAST 58 MPH. THUNDERSTORM
MOVEMENT WILL BE SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH. THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

SEVERE DROUGHT AND MODERATE WILDFIRE DANGER CONTINUES FOR THE
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCUR EACH DAY.

SEVERE DROUGHT CONTINUES FOR THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.

MODERATE WILDFIRE DANGER CONTINUES...EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHERN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

WYZ061>066-241545-
SOUTHWEST CARBON-NORTH CARBON-SNOWY RANGE-NORTH LARAMIE RANGE-
LARAMIE VALLEY-LARAMIE RANGE-
931 AM MDT FRI JUN 23 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED NON-SEVERE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE.

MODERATE WILDFIRE DANGER EXISTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCUR EACH DAY.

MODERATE WILDFIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

WYZ059-067-069-241545-
CONVERSE-PLATTE-CHEYENNE FOOTHILLS-
931 AM MDT FRI JUN 23 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED. THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO
55 MPH AND SMALL HAIL.

MODERATE WILDFIRE DANGER EXISTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED EACH DAY.

MODERATE WILDFIRE DANGER EXISTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

COPLEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
347 PM MDT FRI JUN 23 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0329 PM     HAIL             26 S HARRISON           42.31N 103.88W
06/23/2006  E0.50 INCH       SIOUX              NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DDEAL