Severe Thunderstorm Warning 43, NWS Cheyenne, WY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
148 PM MDT MON JUN 12 2006

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...H5 RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AND THEN BEGIN TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAKING WAY FOR A PACIFIC TROUGH. UNDER THE RIDGE
TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR INTO AT LEAST THE 90S IN MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND EVEN TO THE CENTURY MARK IN THE NEB PANHANDLE.
SURFACE FEATURES WILL BE INCONSEQUENTIAL UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHEN
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR IN MONTANA AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS WILL TURN THE SURFACE FLOW DOWNSLOPE AND
DRY THE AIR MASS WHILE PUSHING THE TEMPERATURES EVEN HIGHER.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE PLAINS WILL SUFFER FROM THE LACK OF
MOISTURE...BUT THE MOUNTAIN ZONES WILL HAVE A CHANCE AT DRY
THUNDERSTORMS IN A QUASI-MONSOONAL PATTERN AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. IN
THE MEANTIME...THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROBABLY FIRE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PILES UP
UNDER A SURFACE UPSLOPE REGIME. DESPITE RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT...LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER STEEP WITH PLENTIFUL SURFACE
HEATING.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.  A SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH
WITH SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHERN CANADA PUSHES INTO WESTERN WYOMING
THURSDAY AND EXITS THE STATE FRIDAY. THIS WILL COOL AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S AND 80S. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. LEE TROUGHING WILL HELP GENERATE LOCALLY BREEZY WINDS. THE
UPPER FLOW BECOMES ZONAL SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MOST
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. HOWEVER
BREEZY WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER WYOMING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...BY WEDNESDAY THE MOISTURE WILL HAVE TIME TO FLUSH
OUT OF THE DISTRICT...ESPECIALLY AS DOWNSLOPE WINDS KICK IN
RESPONDING TO SFC CYCLOGENESIS OVER SOUTHERN MONTANA. AIR MASS WILL
BE VERY WARM STILL...THUS RH/S WILL BE LOW. AFOREMENTIONED
CYCLOGENESIS WILL PROMOTE STRONG WINDS AND COULD POSE A CRITICAL
FIRE DANGER. FURTHERMORE...MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED INTO
THE DISTRICT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...ALLOWING THE POSSIBILITY OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS IN A
MONSOON-LIKE PATTERN. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...SOWKO
LONG TERM....DAUGHERTY/DCC
FIRE WEATHER.SOWKO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1043 AM MDT MON JUN 12 2006

NEZ001>003-WYZ059-060-063-064-131645-
SIOUX-DAWES-BOX BUTTE-CONVERSE-NIOBRARA-SNOWY RANGE-
NORTH LARAMIE RANGE-
1043 AM MDT MON JUN 12 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND MOST OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALTHOUGH NO
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE...THE STRONGER STORMS HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AS WELL AS WIND GUSTS TO 50
MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

WYZ061-062-065-131645-
SOUTHWEST CARBON-NORTH CARBON-LARAMIE VALLEY-
1043 AM MDT MON JUN 12 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS
OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL COMBINE WITH EXPECTED LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY WINDS WEDNESDAY TO APPROACH RED FLAG
CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

NEZ019>021-054-055-WYZ066>070-131645-
SCOTTS BLUFF-BANNER-MORRILL-KIMBALL-CHEYENNE-LARAMIE RANGE-PLATTE-
GOSHEN-CHEYENNE FOOTHILLS-PINE BLUFFS-
1043 AM MDT MON JUN 12 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING.  A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE...WITH NICKEL SIZED HAIL...VERY HEAVY RAIN...AND WIND GUSTS
TO 60 MPH. THE SEVERE ACTIVITY WILL BE RATHER ISOLATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SEVERE DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE OF
NEBRASKA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE SEVERE ACTIVITY SPOTTER
ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

SOWKO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
205 PM MDT MON JUN 12 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 PM     HAIL             6 N HENRY               42.09N 104.05W
06/11/2006  M0.75 INCH       SIOUX              NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

0610 PM     HAIL             3 SW YODER              41.89N 104.34W
06/11/2006  M0.75 INCH       GOSHEN             WY   TRAINED SPOTTER

0620 PM     HAIL             3 NW HENRY              42.03N 104.09W
06/11/2006  M0.75 INCH       GOSHEN             WY   PUBLIC

0625 PM     HAIL             CHEYENNE                41.15N 104.79W
06/11/2006  M0.75 INCH       LARAMIE            WY   TRAINED SPOTTER

0630 PM     HAIL             2 S CHEYENNE            41.12N 104.79W
06/11/2006  M0.75 INCH       LARAMIE            WY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

GOERING