Severe Thunderstorm Warning 33, NWS Cheyenne, WY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
250 PM MDT SUN JUN 11 2006

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SCENARIO IS
NOT AS DYNAMIC OR EARLY AS IT WAS YESTERDAY...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
TSTMS WILL EXIST THROUGH MID EVENING OVER ROUGHLY EASTERN HALF OF
CWA.  JUST GOT NEW WATCH 464 UNTIL 04Z.  LAPS SHOWS BEST AREA
CURRENTLY FROM SNY TO BFF TO SE OF DGW AS CYS DEWPOINT TEMP IS
HOLDING IN UPPER 30S.  SFC WIND WILL BACK ENOUGH THAT BETTER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTING WESTWARD UNTIL MID EVENING.
HAVE KEPT SCATTERED POPS THROUGH 05Z ROUGHLY EASTERN 2/3 OF CWA
AND THEN SHIFTED THEM TO JUST WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TILL 09Z.
AFTER THAT...SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD FORM OVER PARTS OF
THE PANHANDLE.  BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WX MONDAY.
WILL STILL BE QUITE A BIT OF INSTABILITY OVER EASTERN CWA...SO
KEPT A 20 PERCENT POP LAR TO DGW EASTWARD FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING TSTMS.  WARMER H7 TEMPS SHOULD CAP THINGS A BIT.

.LONG TERM...UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER THE CWA ON TUESDAY.  SOME
MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE OVER THE PANHANDLE.  EVEN THOUGH
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE QUITE UNSTABLE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WILL LEAVE OUT THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO
STRONG CAPPING AND SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE.  ON WED...SW FLOW
DEVELOPS ALOFT AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST.  WILL MENTION A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.  A
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THUR AND ANOTHER ON
FRIDAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.  WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY
AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE.  SATURDAY LOOKS DRY AS BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE
WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 5 TO
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

JLH/KMD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1055 AM MDT SUN JUN 11 2006

NEZ001>003-019>021-054-055-WYZ059-060-064-066>070-121115-
SIOUX-DAWES-BOX BUTTE-SCOTTS BLUFF-BANNER-MORRILL-KIMBALL-
CHEYENNE-CONVERSE-NIOBRARA-NORTH LARAMIE RANGE-LARAMIE RANGE-
PLATTE-GOSHEN-CHEYENNE FOOTHILLS-PINE BLUFFS-
1055 AM MDT SUN JUN 11 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WESTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

DAYTIME HEATING WILL CAUSE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.  THE AIR MASS WILL BE MOIST
AND UNSTABLE ENOUGH THAT A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.  THE
MAIN THREATS FROM THE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.
THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE THEY MOVE ON
TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY MID AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING.

WYZ061>063-065-121115-
SOUTHWEST CARBON-NORTH CARBON-SNOWY RANGE-LARAMIE VALLEY-
1055 AM MDT SUN JUN 11 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE...BUT BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

JLH