Severe Thunderstorm Warning 103, NWS Cheyenne, WY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
301 PM MDT SAT AUG 12 2006

.SHORT TERM...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER
MAINLY THE WEST AND NORTH PARTS OF THE CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE ACTIVITY WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE EVENING.  THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE UNDER THE 500 MB TO 300 MB LAYER MOISTURE PLUME AND
AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTH
CENTRAL WYOMING.  EVEN THOUGH MANY PLACES WILL GET A SHOWER OR STORM
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...ANY SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE CONFINED TO
THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA.  TRAINING AND FAIRLY SLOW MOVEMENT
OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WELL OVER
100 PERCENT OF NORMAL WILL ALSO STILL RAISE THE CONCERN ABOUT HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER THE EAST PART OF THE CWA THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
THE MOISTURE PLUME GETS SHUNTED AWAY FROM THE CWA BY LATE EVENING AS
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AND THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD END
AND SKIES CLEAR.  FORECAST RAOBS FOR LATE TONIGHT AND FIRST THING
SUNDAY MORNING IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AND MAY ADD TO THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.  THE
UPSTREAM TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE CWA BY 06Z MONDAY WITH THE
GFS SLIGHTLY FASTER AND PREFERRED BY NCEP.  THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE PLUME WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH...BUT BOTH
THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO PLACE THE SOUTHERN BORDER ON THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF CLOUDS AND QPF AREAS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  THE SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH FORECAST RAOBS AGAIN HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY
OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OVER THE EAST PART OF THE
CWA.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN IN RECENT DAYS AND WILL EVEN
TRIM A FEW DEGREES OFF LOWS AND HIGHS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...MON THROUGH SATURDAY. A FLAT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
REGION MON WILL MOVE EAST WHICH WILL ALLOW SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA TUE. UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST TO
WEST SOUTHWEST WED THROUGH FRI BEFORE VEERING TO WESTERLY SAT.
CLOSER TO THE GROUND...MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A POOL OF MOISTURE
MON OVER CO. WITH SURFACE UPSLOPE WINDS...MON WILL HAVE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. TUE WILL BE WARMER WITH A CHANCE OF LATE DAY
CONVECTION PRIMARILY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WARM TO HOT FOR WED AND THU
WITH MORE MOISTURE WARRANTING GREATER COVERAGE OF STORM POPS BOTH
DAYS. FRI WILL HAVE APPROXIMATELY NORMAL TEMPS WITH LATE DAY POPS
WARRANTED OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MOISTURE WILL DECREASE LATE FRI INTO SAT WITH POPS SAT ONLY OVER THE
HIGHEST MOUNTAINS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

WEILAND/JR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1003 AM MDT SAT AUG 12 2006

WYZ059>070-131200-
CONVERSE-NIOBRARA-SOUTHWEST CARBON-NORTH CARBON-SNOWY RANGE-
NORTH LARAMIE RANGE-LARAMIE VALLEY-LARAMIE RANGE-PLATTE-GOSHEN-
CHEYENNE FOOTHILLS-PINE BLUFFS-
1003 AM MDT SAT AUG 12 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING IN THE EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON AND MOST LOCATIONS CAN EXPECT AT LEAST A PERIOD OF
THUNDERSTORMS.  THE STORMS WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THE WIDESPREAD
AREA OF SHOWERS THAT WAS ALONG AND WEST OF A LUSK TO LARAMIE LINE AT
MID MORNING.  THAT AREA WILL SLOWLY SPREAD EAST.  THE INTENSITY
OF THE STORMS WILL BE LIMITED BY THE CLOUD COVER...KEEPING THE
TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME...AND A DRIER...WESTERLY SURFACE WIND.
THE STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...A PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAINFALL...WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AND LIGHTNING.  THE INDIVIDUAL
STORMS WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH AS THE ENTIRE AREA
SPREAD SLOWLY EAST.  THE STORMS WILL END IN THE EARLY EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AND WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

SEVERE DROUGHT AND HIGH FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

NEZ001>003-019>021-054-055-131200-
SIOUX-DAWES-BOX BUTTE-SCOTTS BLUFF-BANNER-MORRILL-KIMBALL-
CHEYENNE-
1003 AM MDT SAT AUG 12 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WESTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER THE WESTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND MOST LOCATIONS CAN EXPECT
AT LEAST A PERIOD OF THUNDERSTORMS.  THE STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
SEVERE WEATHER TO THE EAST OF A CHADRON...BRIDGEPORT TO KIMBALL LINE.
THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THAT AREA WILL BE MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH
FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR.  THE STRONGER STORMS IN THAT AREA WILL
PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH...HEAVY RAIN AND
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.  THE INDIVIDUAL STORMS WILL MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH AS THE ENTIRE AREA SPREAD SLOWLY EAST.  THE
STORMS WILL END BY MID EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AND WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

SEVERE DROUGHT AND HIGH FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NECESSARY AFTER 2 PM EAST OF A CHADRON
TO BRIDGEPORT TO KIMBALL LINE.

WEILAND

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
558 PM MDT SAT AUG 12 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0156 PM     HAIL             3 E COLTON              41.15N 102.80W
08/12/2006  E0.75 INCH       CHEYENNE           NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JLH