High Wind Watch 12, NWS Cheyenne, WY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
354 AM MST TUE NOV 7 2006

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WED NIGHT. WINDY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. FAST ANTICYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT TODAY WILL BACK TO ZONAL FLOW TONIGHT. UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN
STRONG AS IT GRADUALLY BACKS TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WED AND WED NIGHT
IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING TROUGH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER NORTHEAST UTAH WILL COMBINE WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
LEESIDE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT PLAINS TO INCREASE THE ALREADY TAUT
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION TODAY EXPECTED TO
BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S AND 70S OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS...
SEVERAL AREAS WILL APPROACH OR EXCEED THEIR RECORD HIGHS FOR NOV 7.
WITH PROGGED 700MB WINDS AT OR ABOVE 55 KNOTS TONIGHT...WILL ISSUE A
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 00Z TONIGHT UNTIL 19Z WED FROM THE MOUNTAINS
WESTWARD. THE WATCH WILL INCLUDE FAVORED AREAS IMMEDIATELY EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE SUCH AS CYS AND PLATTE COUNTY. THE WINDS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT QUITE MILD...DIPPING ONLY INTO THE 40S IN MOST
AREAS OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS. MODELS HINT AT SLOWLY DECREASING
SURFACE WINDS AFTER MIDDAY WED. THE DOWNSLOPE WILL AGAIN PRODUCE
TEMPS MUCH ABOVE NORMAL WED...PERHAPS THREATENING RECORD HIGH TEMPS
IN THE RWL AND LAR AREAS. COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER OVER
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WED AFTERNOON. AS THE COOL
AIR MOVES SOUTHWARD LATE WED AND WED NIGHT THE WINDS WILL DECREASE.
TEMPS WED NIGHT WILL COOL INTO THE 30S...MILDER THAN THOSE EXPECTED
TONIGHT BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...HAVE GONE MORE WITH THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION ON THE
PACIFIC TROF THAT MOVES THRU THE REGION THU/THU NIGHT.  NAM IS TOO
STRONG WITH AN INITIAL UPPER FEATURE OVER THE CANADIAN BORDER AREA
WED...DRIVING ITS COLD FRONT MUCH FURTHER S THAN GFS/ECMWF WED
NIGHT/THU.  MODELS ARE GETTING LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THIS TROF
COMPARED TO WHAT THEY WERE SHOWING THIS PAST SAT/SUN...WITH LESS
PCPN IN SE WY/NEB PANHANDLE. PCPN SHOULD BE ABOUT DONE BY MIDDAY
FRI...WITH A BREAK AND WARMUP ON SAT.  NEXT BROAD PACIFIC TROF
SLIDES INTO THE REGION SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...BRINGING A CHANCE OF
MAINLY LIGHT SNOW.  MAIN PATTERN THEN CONTINUES UNCHANGED INTO MON
WITH A GENERAL W FLOW AND A SERIES OF FEATURES MOVING THROUGH...
ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW AS MAIN
UPPER JET REMAINS S OF THE AREA.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 5 PM TUESDAY TO NOON WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ061-
     WYZ062-WYZ063-WYZ064-WYZ065-WYZ066-WYZ067-WYZ069.
NE...NONE.

&&

JR/JAD

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