Severe Thunderstorm Warning 167, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
402 PM EDT TUE JUL 25 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING OVER LAKE HURON WITH CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVG
EWD TOWARDS FINGERLAKES THIS EVENING. TRAILING TAIL OF VORT MAX WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED CONVECTION AS IT HEADS ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE NY/PA BORDER...AFFECTING MY NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING.
LITTLE SEVERE THREAT WITH LOW SHEAR AND MARGINAL CAPES...BUT ANY
STRONGER CELL CAN PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL THAT WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED.

OVERALL...TREND REMAINS THE SAME AS PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS WILL DELIVER INCREASINGLY MORE HUMID AND WARMER AIR
MASS OVER PENNSYLVANIA. LIGHT PGRADS AND MOIST B.L. TONIGHT WILL
SPELL GOOD POTENTIAL FOR FOG FORMATION WITH WIDESPREAD 2-4SM BR BY
10Z...CLEARING AFT 15Z WED.

MORE ROBUST CAPES FORESEEN ON WEDNESDAY WITH PWATS AVG. BETWEEN 1.33
AND 1.50 ACROSS MY FORECAST AREA. BROADBRUSHED CHC POPS IN THIS
REGIME WITH LITTLE MECHANISM TO FOCUS ACTIVITY IN ANY ONE
AREA...DECREASING AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ONLY SMALL CHANGES NEEDED TO THE EXTENDED AS BASIC PATTERN REMAINS
THE SAME AS PREVIOUS FORECAST. TROUGH GRADUALLY SLIDES DOWN INTO
PA LATE IN THE WEEK WITH MOISTURE INCREASING AHEAD OF IT. THIS
WILL TRIGGER DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS. HIGHEST POPS
WILL BE THU INTO FRI. DRIER AIR MOVES IN FOR SUN AND EARLY PARTS
OF NEXT WEEK AS REGION GETS A BIT OF A BREAK FROM THE HEAT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS PREVAILING ACROSS ALL RTES THIS AFTN WITH ISOLD MVFR CIGS
AND VSBYS NEAR ANY SHRA AND TSRA NORTH OF KKUJ THIS EVENING. MAIN
SHORTWAVE TROF WILL PASS WELL NORTH OF REGION INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK.
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL PASS NORTHERN TIP OF LAKE ERIE AND INTO THE
FINGERLAKES REGION WITH A TRAILING BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MOIST SWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALOFT IN ITS
WAKE...WITH OVERNIGHT B.L. WINDS DECREASING AFT 06Z AIDING IN
WIDESPREAD VALLEY FOG FORMATION AND MVFR CIGS/VSBYS BETWEEN 08 AND
13 UTC. VFR CONDS SHOULD RETURN TO ALL AFT 15Z WED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/RXR
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...DEVOIR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
425 AM EDT TUE JUL 25 2006

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-056>059-063>066-260830-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-
NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-
JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-
SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-
NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-
CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
425 AM EDT TUE JUL 25 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
336 PM EDT TUE JUL 25 2006

PAZ004-252030-
WARREN-
336 PM EDT TUE JUL 25 2006

...THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WARREN COUNTY...

AT 333 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES EAST OF
JAMESTOWN TO 25 MILES WEST OF WARREN...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR SPRING CREEK AROUND 345 PM...GARLAND
AROUND 415 PM...RUSSELL AND GERMANY AROUND 430 PM.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 6...ROUTE 62.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THESE STORMS...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

FORECASTER: DANGELO