Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
325 PM EDT TUE MAY 30 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGE AXIS OVER CENTRAL PA SLOWLY BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN AS
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS BEGIN TO INFILTRATE THE MID LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE.  OF CONCERN FOR TONIGHT WILL BE SHORTWAVE SLIPPING SOUTH
FROM UPSTATE NY.  ALREADY SOME SCATTERED TSTORMS WITH THIS FEATURE
NORTH OF KUCA WITH ISOLD STORMS A BIT CLOSER WHICH WILL GRADUALLY
SLIDE TOWARD OUR NE COUNTIES.  CAP STILL A BIT STRONGER DOWN OUR
WAY...SO ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AS IT APPROACHES...BUT
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ON THE TERRAIN WILL STILL BE ENOUGH TO CREATE
POCKETS OF INSTABILITY WHICH WILL FUEL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
ACTIVITY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF CWA.  OTHER ITEM OF NOTE
OVERNIGHT WILL BE A RETURN OF THE PATCHY FOG AND HAZE AS MUGGY AIR
REMAINS IN PLACE.

WEDNESDAY WILL BEGIN QUIETLY...BUT AS RETURN FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF
RIDGE CONTINUES TO APPROACH...IT WILL BRING SOME WEAK UPPER FORCING
AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES - BOTH AIDING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TSTORMS WED AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE WEST.  TEMPS WILL FALL BACK A BIT FROM TODAY/S
NEAR RECORD HIGHS...BUT MAXES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE PEAKING
IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GUIDANCE CONTINUES EXCELLENT DAY TO DAY CONSISTENCY IN THE EXPECTED
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS OUR REGION. THE STRONG
UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO
TRANSITION INTO AN UPPER TROF OVER NORTHEASTERN NORTH AMERICA BY THE
START OF THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER TROF...REINFORCED WITH SEVERAL SHOTS
OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS THEN FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
NEXT WEEK.

HOT WEATHER AND LIMITED PCPN WILL GIVE WAY TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ABUNDANT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM LATER WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY EAST REPLACING THE THEN PROGRESSIVE SFC
ANTICYCLONE. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD
END FROM WEST TO EAST SOMETIME SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEHIND THE INITIAL TROF WILL SUPPORT
SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM TIME TIME THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. A
NOTICEABLY COOLER PERIOD IS IN STORE NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO BE VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL...A POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL IN A FEW SPOTS...FROM SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
FLYING WEATHER THIS MID AFTERNOON LOOKING PRETTY GOOD.  EARLIER
FOG/HAZE HAS MIXED OUT TO P6SM SO NO CURRENT RESTRICTIONS ON
VISIBILITIES AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE KEEPING CLOUDS TO A MINIMUM.
THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...WITH ISOLATED TSRA
POPPING UP MAINLY IN THE NE HALF LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS TO LOCALLY REDUCE VSBY/CIGS.

AS EVENING PROGRESSES...THE FOG/HAZE WILL RETURN BRINGING A
REDUCTION TO PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CONDITIONS /ISOLATED IFR/ THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT.  SIMILAR TO TODAY...THE FOG/HAZE WILL DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNRISE WED...BUT WILL HOVER AROUND 6SM MUCH OF THE DAY.  CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS WELL...WITH
SCATTERED TSTORMS AFFECTING THE REGION.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH BRIEF
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

LOOKING FURTHER INTO THE FUTURE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THU INTO FRI AS A FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES THROUGH MAKING RECREATIONAL FLYING DIFFICULT BEFORE IMPROVING
WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...GARTNER
AVIATION...RXR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
332 AM EDT TUE MAY 30 2006

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-056>059-063>066-310745-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-
NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-
JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-
SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-
NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-
CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
332 AM EDT TUE MAY 30 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

DANGELO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
501 PM EDT TUE MAY 30 2006

PAZ058-302230-
SCHUYLKILL-
501 PM EDT TUE MAY 30 2006

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN SCHUYLKILL COUNTY
BETWEEN 545 PM AND 630 PM EDT...

AT 457 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF HAZLETON...MOVING SOUTHWEST
AT 10 MPH. THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR MCADOO AROUND 545 PM...
HOMETOWN...SHEPPTON AROUND 600 PM...MAHANOY CITY AND TUSCARORA AROUND
615 PM.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTERSTATES...
I-81 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 129 AND 139.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 209...STATE
ROAD 309.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
ALSO EXPECT A 15 TO 30 MINUTE PERIOD OF VERY HEAVY RAIN...WHICH
COULD TOTAL BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 INCHES.

EXPECT FREQUENT...DANGEROUS...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING FROM THIS
STORM. DO NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING
THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS WHEN A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

FORECASTER: LAMBERT