Severe Thunderstorm Warning 133, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
315 PM EDT SUN JUL 9 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ONGOING...ISOLATED SEVERE...CONVECTION ON BACK EDGE CIRCULATION OF
UPR LOW LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING AND THEN DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOULD
BE MAINLY DRY PCPN WISE...BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST STARTING MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF
SHORTWAVE TROF...SO A SHOWER COULD REACH INTO NW PA EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. HAVE HAD A COUPLE REPORTS OF HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE AND WITH
STRONGER DYNAMICS EXPECTED MONDAY WITH THE SHORT WAVE
TROF...INCLUDED LIKELY POPS FOR NW HALF OF CWA ON MONDAY WITH AT
LEAST SOME ISOLATED SEVERE POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH NO AIRMASS CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK AND AN
ACTIVE NRN STREAM FLOW PATTERN TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION...ABOVE
NORMAL CLIMO CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME MOISTURE APPEARS DIMINISH BY THE WEEKEND WITH
THE PASSAGE OF SOME SEMBLANCE OF AN UPR TROF AXIS.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SE HALF OF CWA ALONG WITH GENEROUS AMOUNTS OF
CAPE KICKING OFF SCATTERED PULSE TSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.  THESE WILL
BRING ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
REMAINS VFR.  CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH LOSS OF HEATING.  DECENT MID LEVEL WAVE WITH ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AND CROSS CWA DURING THE
DAY MONDAY BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTORMS ALONG WITH LOCAL
REDUCTIONS OF VSBY/CIGS...BUT IN GENERAL VSBYS WILL BE 6+ WITH CIGS
REMAINING ABOVE 3KFT.  WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...RXR/GARTNER
LONG TERM...GARTNER
AVIATION...RXR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1134 AM EDT SUN JUL 9 2006

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-056>059-063>066-101545-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-
NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-
JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-
SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-
NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-
CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
1134 AM EDT SUN JUL 9 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON. MAINLY ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY...A
FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH THE
MAIN THREAT BEING HAIL. THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH AS SUNSET APPROACHES THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

RXR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
520 PM EDT SUN JUL 9 2006

PAZ056-092145-
PERRY-
520 PM EDT SUN JUL 9 2006

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN PERRY
COUNTY...

AT 518 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES WEST OF ENOLA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10
MPH. THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR MARYSVILLE AND DUNCANNON AROUND
535 PM AND AMITY HALL AROUND 545 PM.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 11/15.

EXPECT SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING FROM THIS STORM. DO NOT
STAY OUTDOORS WHEN YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER.

FORECASTER: DANGELO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
534 PM EDT SUN JUL 9 2006

PAZ066-092200-
LANCASTER-
534 PM EDT SUN JUL 9 2006

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT LANCASTER COUNTY...

AT 531 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER EPHRATA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH. THE
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR REAMSTOWN AROUND 545 PM...DENVER AROUND 550
PM AND ADAMSTOWN AROUND 600 PM.

SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTERSTATES...THE
PENNSYLVANIA TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 274 AND 289.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 222...ROUTE
322.

FORECASTER: DANGELO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
545 PM EDT SUN JUL 9 2006

PAZ051-092215-
MONTOUR-
545 PM EDT SUN JUL 9 2006

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MONTOUR COUNTY...

AT 540 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF DANVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 15 MPH. THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR WASHINGTONVILLE AROUND 550
PM AND EXCHANGE AROUND 605 PM.

EXPECT SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING FROM THIS STORM.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTERSTATES...
I-80 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 219 AND 222.

FORECASTER: DANGELO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
549 PM EDT SUN JUL 09 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 PM     HAIL             2 W HOGESTOWN           40.23N 77.08W
07/09/2006  E1.00 INCH       CUMBERLAND         PA   NWS EMPLOYEE

0541 PM     HAIL             EPHRATA                 40.18N 76.18W
07/09/2006  E0.50 INCH       LANCASTER          PA   EMERGENCY MNGR

0544 PM     HAIL             LEWISBURG               40.96N 76.89W
07/09/2006  E0.25 INCH       UNION              PA   EMERGENCY MNGR

0545 PM     HAIL             WATSONTOWN              41.08N 76.86W
07/09/2006  E0.50 INCH       NORTHUMBERLAND     PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CRUZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
551 PM EDT SUN JUL 9 2006

PAZ057-092215-
DAUPHIN-
551 PM EDT SUN JUL 9 2006

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT DAUPHIN COUNTY...

AT 549 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER THE BOROUGH OF DAUPHIN...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 15 MPH. THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR ELLENDALE FORGE AROUND 600
PM...HALIFAX AROUND 605 PM AND DEHART DAM AROUND 615 PM.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 209 AND ROUTE
322/22.

FORECASTER: DANGELO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
616 PM EDT SUN JUL 09 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0546 PM     HAIL             SNOW SHOE               41.03N 77.95W
07/09/2006  E0.50 INCH       CENTRE             PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

0607 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ADAMSTOWN               40.24N 76.06W
07/09/2006                   LANCASTER          PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SOME TREES DOWN. WIND GUSTS OF 49 MPH

&&

CRUZ