Freeze Warning 2, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1047 AM EDT FRI OCT 6 2006

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/...

MID CLOUD DECK THINNING A BIT AS EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL PENN...WITH THICKER/LAYERED CLOUDS AND STEADIER
LIGHT RAIN EARLIER OVER THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...SLIDING NEAR AND
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE ATTM.

TRIMMED POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND CHANGED PRECIP DESCRIPTION
TO SHOWERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 852 AM EDT FRI OCT 6 2006/

SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...

UPDATING ZONES TO FRESHEN UP WORDING AFTER EXPIRATION OF THE FROST
ADVISORY ACROSS THE NRN TIER ZONES.

A FAIRLY STRONG JET ENTRANCE REGION ACROSS SE PENN THIS MORNING
WILL BE VERY STUBBORN TO EXIT SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE TODAY
AS A SHARP TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO RIVER VALLEY CONTINUES TO
DROP SLOWLY SSE TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND CLOSES OFF
INTO AN UPPER LOW.

MODIFIED/INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PENN
THROUGH TONIGHT...AS 300-305K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND SUBSEQUENT HIGH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY CONTINUES OVER THIS AREA.

WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THE TEMPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO FOR ANY MODIFICATIONS WITH A
LATE MORNING UPDATE...CONSIDERING THE MORE PERSISTENT CLOUDS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH.

PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 323 AM EDT FRI OCT 6 2006/

SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
SHARP UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF TO OUR WEST THIS MORNING OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. PERSISTENT EASTERLY B.L. FLOW INTERACTING WITH 0.75 TO
1.00 PWATS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
PA...WHILE ENTIRE AREA IS OVERRUN BY MODERATE WSW FLOW ALOFT AS
UPPER TROF DROPS SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.

CLEARING WILL IMPACT THE NORTH FIRST TODAY...WITH JUST HIGH BKN-
OVC CIGS THERE NOW. FURTHER SOUTH...THE TRANSITION WILL BE MORE
GRADUAL WITH A LONGER PERIOD OF CLOUD COVER AND SOME LIGHT MORNING
PRECIPITATION. THIS IS CONTRASTED WITH A DRIPPY AND DREARY DAY FOR
THE SOUTH AND ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL BE LUCKY TO SEE ANY
SUNSHINE AT ALL. PRETTY MUCH KEPT PREVIOUS FORECAST IDEAS INTACT
FOR TODAY WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND SLIGHT CHC FOR
THE CENTRAL AND W CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FOR MORNING SHOWERS THERE.

LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOMALOUSLY LOW PWATS ADVECT INTO NORTH CENTRAL PA TONIGHT AS THE
UPPER LOW CIRCULATION SETTLES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. PWATS TO DROP BELOW 0.25 WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS SPELLS FROST POTENTIAL AND WILL HOIST ANOTHER
FROST WATCH FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN THIRD OF PA (NORTH OF I-80)
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SAT. MORNING.

THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STUBBORNLY THIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS BUT WILL NOT COMPLETELY DO SO AS PERSISTENT EASTERLY
FLOW CONTINUES. EXPECT M/C SKIES TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTH WTIH
PERSISTENT ELY FLOW AND PWATS ONLY DECREASING TO 0.75 BY 12Z SAT.

THE UPPER RIDGE FLOPS OVER ACROSS THE FINGERLAKES REGION SOUTHWARD
INTO MY NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES ON SATURDAY. DEFORMATION ZONE CONTS
TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES
SPELLING IMPROVEMENT FOR THE SOUTH. IN THE MEANTIME...U.L.
CONFLUENCE INCREASES OVER THE GLAKS REGION SUNDAY HELPING TO
DEPRESS THE UL RIDGE SOUTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY.
A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GLAKS AND INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE...ADVECTING COOL AIR SOUTH
ACROSS THE STATE AND KEEPING US MAINLY PRECIPITATION FREE FOR THE
COMING WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE FRONT MAY BUCKLE TO OUR SOUTH AND CAUSE
SOME SHOWERS AROUND MIDWEEK.

AVIATION...
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND LIFT TO THE NORTH OF A SLOW MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CAROLINAS AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW
ENGLAND WILL PUT A SQUEEZE PLAY ON THE FLYING WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL
PA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OVER THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF CENTRAL PA...BFD/IPT...THE WEATHER
WILL BE DOMINATED BY VFR CONDITIONS...EVEN CLEAR SKIES ALONG THE
NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES. THE CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO NEAR
FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND AREAS OF FROST BY SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING.

OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF.../MDT/ ABUNDANT LOW CLOUDS WITH
SCATTERED TO OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL PREVAIL WITH SCT IFR
CIGS AND VIS OVERNIGHT. IMPROVEMENT IS FORECAST DURING THE DAY WITH
LINGERING VFR CIGS AND SCT SHOWERS. VSBYS SHOULD STAY IN THE VFR
RANGE MOST OF THE TIME...BUT AN OCCASIONAL DIP INTO MVFR CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT.  SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ALONG THE
DIVIDING LINE...JST/AOO/UNV. THE CHANCES FOR FASTER IMPROVEMENT IN
FLYING CONDITIONS ACROSS THIS REGION ARE A BIT HIGHER HERE THAN
ACROSS THE SOUTH.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FOR PAZ004>006-010>012-037-041-042 FROM
MIDNIGHT SATURDAY TO 8 AM SATURDAY.
&&

SHORT TERM...LAMBERT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
333 AM EDT FRI OCT 6 2006

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-056>059-063>066-070745-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-
NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-
JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-
SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-
NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-
CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
333 AM EDT FRI OCT 6 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.