Flash Flood Warning 27, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
335 AM EDT TUE JUN 27 2006

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

KCCX RADAR SHOWING BATCH OF HVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH WK S/WV LIFTING
INTO NY STATE...LEAVING ONLY WDLY SCT SHWRS OVR SOUTHERN PA AND
NORTHERN VA. HOWEVER...DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWAT VALUES NORTH ALONG THE APPALACHIANS...KEEPING
CENTRAL VULNERABLE TO ADDITIONAL FLOODING. LL JET ASSOCIATED WITH
SUB-TROPICAL LOW WILL PROVIDE THE LL CONVERGENCE FOR AN INCREASE IN
SHWRS/TSTMS LATER TDY AND TONIGHT. AS HAS OCCURRED OVER THE LAST
24HRS...EXPECT EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TO BE CONFINED TO LOCALIZED AREAS
UNDER TRAINING CELLS.

MIDWESTERN TROUGH WILL FINALLY PUSH FRONTAL BOUNDARY THRU CENTRAL PA
BY WED AM. WILL EXTEND FFA THRU 12Z WED...AFTER WHICH DRIER WESTERLY
FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION. HOWEVER...UNSETTLED PATTERN LIKELY
TO CONTINUE FOR WED/THUR AS UPPER TROUGH REMAINS JUST TO OUR WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

DEEP TROUGH OVR GRT LKS LIFTS OUT LATE THIS WEEK PUSHING DEEP
MOISTURE OFF THE EAST COAST. BEST CHC FOR A DRY DAY MAY BE FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...LATEST MREF DATA SHOWS ANOTHER TROUGH DVLPG OVR GRT LKS BY
THE WEEKEND. THUS WILL KEEP THE CHC OF SHWRS THRU THE EXTENDED FCST.

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR AT LEAST ONE MORE DAY...WIDESPREAD POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL
BE PREVALENT ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA. THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS MAY NOT BE TOO BAD HOWEVER...AS THE LATEST ROUND OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAS LIFTED INTO NEW YORK STATE. MVFR AND LOCALLY IFR
CIGS ARE HOLDING FAST...BUT VSBYS FOR THE TIME BEING ARE 6 NM PLUS
OVER MOST OF THE AREA. DO EXPECT SOME CIGS TO VENTURE INTO VFR
TERRITORY AS WELL...FOR A SHORT WHILE...BUT ALSO EXPECT AREAS OF FOG
TO FORM...SOME OF IT RATHER THICK...BRINGING VSBY AND CIGS BACK
DOWN. ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AND POCKETS OF DRIZZLE ARE ALSO
EXPECTED BUT THEY IN THEMSELVES SHOULD NOT CAUSE REDUCTIONS BELOW
MVFR.

THAT IS THE GOOD NEWS...AS DURING THE LATER MORNING HOURS...MORE
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE
STATE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROF NOW OVER
TENNESSEE LIFTS TOWARD THE REGION. THIS WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD IFR
TO MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD OVER MUCH
OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THE EAST AGAIN CAUSED FLASH FLOODING
PROBLEMS MON INTO EARLY THIS MORNING.  REGION IS CURRENTLY IN A
PRECIP MINIMUM AT 08Z WHICH IS GIVING THE SATURATED GROUND A LITTLE
TIME TO RECOVER...BUT ADDITIONAL RAINS ARE ON THE WAY FOR THE REGION
WITH ANOTHER 1-3 INCHES LIKELY IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS.  EXPECT ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS WILL BE
NEEDED OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

SEVERAL RIVER POINTS ARE IN/FORECASTED TO BE IN MINOR FLOOD TUE INTO
WED...MAINLY TRIBUTARIES OF THE SUSQ RIVER IN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
WHERE RAINFALL HAS BEEN HEAVIEST.  MANY OTHER CREEKS WILL REACH
CAUTION STAGE OR NEAR BANKFULL BEFORE THIS EVENT WINDS DOWN LATER
THIS WEEK.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-
033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066 UNTIL 8 AM
WEDNESDAY.
&&

SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...GARTNER
HYDROLOGY...RXR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
444 AM EDT TUE JUN 27 2006

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-056>059-063>066-280845-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-
NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-
JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-
SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-
NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-
CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
444 AM EDT TUE JUN 27 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST
COAST...COMBINED WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT IN THE VICINITY OF
PENNSYLVANIA...WILL RESULT IN NUMEROUS HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF OVER 3
INCHES IS LIKELY IN A FEW LOCATIONS...CAUSING ADDITIONAL
FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.