Wind Advisory 22, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

000 
WWUS74 KCRP 292137
NPWCRP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
337 PM CST FRI DEC 29 2006


TXZ242>244-292245-
/O.CAN.KCRP.WI.Y.0022.000000T0000Z-061230T0000Z/
KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...KINGSVILLE...CORPUS CHRISTI...
ROBSTOWN...PORT ARANSAS...PORTLAND...INGLESIDE...ARANSAS PASS...
SINTON...MATHIS
337 PM CST FRI DEC 29 2006

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CORPUS CHRISTI HAS CANCELLED THE
WIND ADVISORY. ALTHOUGH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL STILL OCCUR FOR
PART OF THE AFTERNOON...SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 MPH OR WIND GUSTS
NEAR 40 MPH ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED...AS THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES
CLOSER TO THE AREA. THUS...THE WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED. 

$$

GW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
534 AM CST FRI DEC 29 2006

.UPDATE...WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL BEND COUNTIES OF KLEBERG...NUECES AND SAN PATRICIO FROM
10 AM TO 6 PM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 418 AM CST FRI DEC 29 2006)

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW
ALONG THE NM/AZ BORDER WILL MOVE INTO WEST TX TONIGHT AND SLOWLY
INTO THE TX PANHANDLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL
GRADUALLY DEEPEN TODAY WITH WINDY CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
COASTAL BEND TODAY...BUT IT APPEARS CONDTIONS WILL BE JUST SHY OF
WIND ADVISORY CONDITION. STRONG CAP EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY
ERODE STARTING LATE THIS MORNING AND ESPECIALLY INTO THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A PACIFIC
COLD FRONT. APPEARS A SQUALL LINE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WRN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA EARLY THIS EVENING AND WILL TRACK EASTWARD INTO A
CONTINUALLY MORE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. CAPES PROGGED TO BE BETWEEN
1500-2000 J/KG WITH LIS OF -6 TO -8...WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS OF 9-10K
FEET AND A 115KT JET PUNCHING INTO THE AREA FAVORS SEVERE WX THREAT.
SOME DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR
TONIGHT. NAM IS SHOWING BOTH DEEP AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WHILE THE
GFS IS LACKING IN DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. AS RESULT HELICITY VALUES
MUCH HIGHER WITH THE NAM WITH VALUES APPROACHING 500 OVER THE
VICTORIA CROSSROADS AREA WHILE GFS LOWER AT AROUND 200. SPC HAS
MOST OF OUR AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WX WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT...BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO
CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ESPECIALLY AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SQUALL LINE. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO AND WILL
INCLUDE IN THE ZONES WHERE APPLICABLE. APPEARS COLD FRONT WILL BE
MOVING OFFSHORE AROUND MIDNIGHT...BUT WILL STILL CONTINUE WITH
CHANCE OF POPS BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT AS GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL BE TAKING PLACE. SATURDAY WILL BE MUCH CALMER WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG THE COASTAL BEND IN THE MORNING WITH
DOWNGLIDING TAKING PLACE THE REST OF THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TODAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S
AND APPROACHING 80 DEGREES. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER TONIGHT BUT STILL
ABOVE NORMAL BEHIND THE WEAK PACIFIC FRONT. TEMPS WILL BE AT TO JUST
A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO FOR SATURDAY.

AVIATION...ANOTHER BREEZY DAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN COASTAL BEND
WTIH WIND GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 KNOTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL
MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME VFR BY THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SQUALL DEVELOPING AND
MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING WITH VERY STRONG WINDS AND
HAIL POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ENDING FROM WEST TO
EAST. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE FROM KCRP TO KVCT
SATURDAY MORNING...BUT CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED AREAWIDE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

MARINE...STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT/LOW-LEVEL JET AND WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPS WILL LEAD TO HIGH-END SCA CONDITIONS AND GALE FORCE
GUSTS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS. COOLER SEA-SURFACE TEMPS OVER
THE BAYS/NEARSHORE WATERS WILL RESULT IN LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS.
THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE COASTAL WATERS.
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
THROUGH SATURDAY.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...THE UPPER LOW
WILL BE LIFTING OUT OF NORTHWEST TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE REGION. BENIGN WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AND NEW YEARS DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY BUILDING INTO THE REGION. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LOW
IN THE ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL MOVE INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST TUESDAY. GFS CONTINUES TO BE A BIT FARTHER TO
THE SOUTH WITH THE UPPER LOW BY WEDNESDAY THAN THE ECMWF.
WITH EITHER SOLUTION...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT STRENGTHENS. A COASTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
FORM BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH NORTHEAST-EAST WINDS INCREASING
TO SCA OVER THE GULF WATERS. WILL CONTINUE TO BROADBRUSH CHANCE
POPS FOR THE AREA WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH LATEST TRENDS
WITH UPPER LOWS DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN STREAM...MODELS
(ECMWF/CAN) MAY BE TOO QUICK TO MOVE LOW OUT AND GFS MAY BE A
BETTER MODEL FOR THURSDAY SO KEPT LOW END CHANCE POPS.

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 6 PM SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: KLEBERG...NUECES...AND SAN PATRICIO.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM FRIDAY TO 11 PM FRIDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS...AND BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
     OCONNOR.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20
     NM...AND COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60 NM...AND
     WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

MW/98...SHORT-TERM
TT/89...LONG-TERM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
527 AM CST FRI DEC 29 2006

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-301130-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT OCONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60 NM-
LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
527 AM CST FRI DEC 29 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
40 MPH WILL OCCUR OVER THE INLAND SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
BEND.

A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A SQUALL LINE DEVELOPING EARLY THIS EVENING OVER THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL
AS THE THREAT OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ONGOING OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS WILL EXPAND INTO THE BAYS LATER THIS MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM
NORTHERN MEXICO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

MW/TMT