Severe Thunderstorm Warning 9, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
242 PM CST TUE MAR 28 2006

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...AN OUTFLOW BDRY
CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD ACROSS MAINLY THE ERN CWA WITH
CONVECTION FIRING ALONG THE BDRY. THESE STORMS ARE BEING AIDED BY
THE UPPER LEVEL JET THATS NOSING INTO THE AREA AND DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT ALONG WITH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND MOIST AIRMASS...WITH
THE MAIN LOW LEVEL FOCUS BEING THE BDRY. THE BDRY IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE PUSHING S INTO THE SRN CWA AROUND 4 PM. WINDS HAVE BEEN
GUSTING TO 30 TO 40+ KNOTS OUT OF THE NE IN THE WAKE OF THE BDRY
WITH A FEW SVR TSRA BRIEFLY DVLPG IN AREAS OF HIGHEST SHEAR.
ISOLATED SVR POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DIMINISH IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HRS. RAIN CHCS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...THEN OVERNIGHT THE MODELS ARE SHOWING WINDS SHIFT TO THE
SE AND PUSHING THE MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE AREA AS ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WITH RAIN CHCS
INCREASING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WED. THE ENVIRONMENT STABILIZES BY
LATE WED AND WED NIGHT WITH RAIN CHCS ENDING FROM S TO NE.

&&

.MARINE...A BDRY WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THUNDERSTORMS DVLPG AHD...ALONG AND BEHIND THE BDRY. A FEW OF THE
STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH NE WINDS BRIEFLY GUSTING
TO 35 TO 45 KNOTS. THE STRONG GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF AND
WILL HANDLE WITH MARINE WEATHER STATEMENTS OR SPECIAL MARINE
WARNINGS IF WARRANTED. WINDS DIMINISH OVER NIGHT AND SWING BACK TO
THE SE WITH A WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILING ON WED AND
WED NIGHT. HOWEVER...ISOL TO SCT THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE
AGAIN ON WED AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...CIGS AND VSBYS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR TO MVFR THROUGH
THE PERIOD...HOWEVER CONDITIONS BRIEFLY DETERIATE TO IFR WITH SCT
TO NUMEROUS TSRAS ALONG A BDRY THAT IS MOVG S ACROSS THE AREA.
TSRAS WILL CONTINUE TO DVLP AHD...ALONG AND BEHIND THE BDRY
THROUGH 00Z. THEN A BRIEF LULL IN RAIN CHCS THIS EVENING BEFORE
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PRODUCES SCT TSRA AFTER MIDNIGHT
THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. THE MAIN CONVECTION THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL AFFECTING THE ALI AND CRP SITES ALONG WITH OTHER
SITES IN THE AREA.

&&

.LONG-TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...THE BROAD SWLY FLOW ALOFT WL
GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A BROAD RDG AXIS ALOFT AS HEIGHTS SLOWLY
RISE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  THIS WL SLOWLY DRY OUT THE AIRMASS ACROSS
SOUTH TX AND WARM THINGS UP.  PCPN CHCS WL BE LIMITED TO A ROGUE
SHRA UNDERNEATH THE DEVELOPINC CAP OR AN ISOLATED STREAMER SHRA OVER
THE WATER OR NERN ZONES.  WL CONTINUE TO GO ABV GUIDANCE BY AT LEAST
A CATEGORY GIVEN THE VERY WARM BOUNDARY LYR CONDITIONS AND
PREVAILING SLY FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    69  81  70  84  68  /  60  50  10  10  10
VICTORIA          63  77  65  80  64  /  40  50  20  20  10
LAREDO            68  86  70  92  69  /  40  20  10  10  10
ALICE             67  84  67  87  67  /  60  50  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          68  78  68  80  67  /  60  40  20  10  10
COTULLA           64  84  65  89  64  /  40  30  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        69  84  67  86  67  /  60  40  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

TE/81...SHORT-TERM
MB/80...LONG-TERM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1100 AM CST TUE MAR 28 2006

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-291200-
ARANSAS-BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT OCONNOR-BEE-CALHOUN-
COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
DUVAL-GOLIAD-JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-LASALLE-LIVE OAK-MCMULLEN-NUECES-
REFUGIO-SAN PATRICIO-VICTORIA-
WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60 NM-WEBB-
1100 AM CST TUE MAR 28 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE VICTORIA
CROSSROADS REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL BEND AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS. THE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL
BEND AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS. DANGEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY ACROSS THE
GULF WATERS...RESULTING IN MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

TE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
154 PM CST TUE MAR 28 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 PM     HAIL             TELFERNER               28.83N 96.83W
03/28/2006  E0.75 INCH       VICTORIA           TX   AMATEUR RADIO

0106 PM     TSTM WND DMG     TELFERNER               28.83N 96.83W
03/28/2006                   VICTORIA           TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            SMALL METAL BARN DESTROYED.

0136 PM     HAIL             1 S BLOOMINGTON         28.62N 96.88W
03/28/2006  E0.75 INCH       VICTORIA           TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            REPORTED ON HIGHWAY 185.

&&

CORDERO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
155 PM CST TUE MAR 28 2006

TXZ232-233-245-246-282100-
ARANSAS-BEE-GOLIAD-REFUGIO-
155 PM CST TUE MAR 28 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE AFFECTING ARANSAS...BEE...GOLIAD AND
REFUGIO COUNTIES...

AT 154 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES NORTH OF
OAKVILLE TO 8 MILES SOUTH OF BERCLAIR TO TIVOLI...MOVING SOUTH AT
35 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

JM

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