Severe Thunderstorm Warning 41, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
251 PM CDT WED MAY 10 2006

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...DRYLINE IS CURRENTLY
BISECTING THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS
THE HILL COUNTRY. TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY BETWEEN 100 AND 105 OVER THE W
CWA WITH AROUND 90 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE CWA AND ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
EVENING BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE 12Z CRP SOUNDING INDICATED A VERY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH A VERY STRONG CAPPING INVERSION...WHICH
THE MODELS UNDERESTIMATED. QUESTION IS WILL CAP HAVE WEAKENED
SUFFICIENTLY THIS EVENING TO ALLOW TSRAS TO DVLP EITHER ALONG OR
JUST BEHIND THE FRONT? MOS GUIDANCE IS LOW ON POPS WITH NOTHING OVER
30 PERCENT. AM EXPECTING THAT AS THE BDRY NEARS THE COAST...TSRAS
WILL DVLP JUST AS THE BDRY PUSHES OFFSHORE. THUS WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE 20-30 POPS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST CWA.
GIVEN THE INSTABILITY...ANY STORMS THAT DO DVLP WILL LIKELY BE
SEVERE. STRONG NLY WINDS AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL FILTER ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. THURSDAYS HIGHS WILL BE COOLER IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S (VS THE 90S AND 100S TODAY). LIGHTER WINDS AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING THU NIGHT WITH TEMPS
DIPPING INTO THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NRN CWA TO MID 60S ACROSS THE
S.

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. SOME STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS AND LG
HAIL. MARINERS CAN ALSO EXPECT CLOUD TO SURFACE LIGHTNING AND BRIEF
DOWNPOURS. MARINE MOS GUIDANCE IS FCSTG WIND SPEEDS UP TO AROUND 30
KNOTS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. THE GFS AND ETA ARE LOWER FOR
SFC WINDS HOWEVER ARE SHOWING 30 TO 40 KNOTS JUST OFF THE SFC. AM
EXPECTING THAT STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE
WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND
VEER ONSHORE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THRU S TX THIS EVENING
REACHING THE COAST BEFORE MIDNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AHD
OF THE FRONT WITH ISOL TO SCT TSRAS ALONG THE FRONT LOWERING
CONDITIONS TO IFR AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST. STRONG
NLY WINDS WILL DVLP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH CIGS LIFTING AND
VSBYS IMPROVING TO VFR THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS COAST ON FRIDAY WITH WINDS RETURNING TO THE
SOUTHEAST. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A RATHER PLEASANT DAY WITH RETURN FLOW
BEGINNING TO SET UP BUT HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE
OFFSHORE. BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
PUMP IN QUITE A BIT OF GULF MOISTURE SO HOT HUMID DAY IN STORE FOR
SATURDAY. QUESTIONS START TO ARISE WITH THE SUNDAY FORECAST. UPPER
LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BEGIN TO SINK INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
WITH UPPER RIDGE PUMPING UP OVER WRN U.S. GFS SHOWS A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE ECMWF
AND DGEX HOLD IT BACK ABOUT 12-18 HOURS. WILL GO WITH LATTER
SCENARIO AS GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY TOO FAST BRINGING FRONTS IN
HERE. AS A RESULT...HAVE BUMPED TEMPS UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY. WILL INCLUDE JUST SLIGHT CHANCE OF
POPS WITH THE FROPA AS CONVERGENCE WILL NOT BE TOO STRONG AND
DYNAMICS ARE PRETTY WEAK. WILL HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS FOR
FAR WRN AREAS AS MOISTURE POOLS ACROSS THAT REGION AND MODELS
HINTING AT A COUPLE OF VORT MAXES COMING DOWN IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW.
BY TUESDAY...DRY PLEASANT WEATHER WILL PREVAIL AND WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION. LOOK FOR
RETURN FLOW TO SET UP BY THURSDAY WITH HIGHER TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS IN
STORE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    66  86  60  86  70  /  30  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          62  87  56  86  65  /  20  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            68  90  66  92  72  /  20  10  10  10  10
ALICE             65  88  59  90  67  /  30  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          68  82  66  85  71  /  30  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           64  88  59  92  65  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        67  88  61  87  68  /  30  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...DUVAL...GOLIAD...JIM WELLS...
     KLEBERG...LA SALLE...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...NUECES...
     REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA...AND WEBB.

GM...NONE.

&&

TE/81...SHORT-TERM
MW/98...LONG-TERM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
548 AM CDT WED MAY 10 2006

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-111100-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT OCONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60 NM-
LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
548 AM CDT WED MAY 10 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL
BEND LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...GENERALLY TO
THE EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 FROM THREE RIVERS TO PREMONT. A DRYLINE
WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL BEND THIS AFTERNOON AND A COLD FRONT
WILL BE MOVING SOUTH OUT OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE AND MOVE
TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

THE STORMS WILL ADVANCE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING
BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES AROUND MIDNIGHT. STRONG GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
WITH THE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS
OVER THE GULF WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
FOR THE COASTAL BEND.

TMT/TM

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
606 PM CDT WED MAY 10 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0605 PM     HAIL             1 N ODEM                27.96N 97.59W
05/10/2006  E1.75 INCH       SAN PATRICIO       TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CORDERO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
608 PM CDT WED MAY 10 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0606 PM     HAIL             ODEM                    27.95N 97.59W
05/10/2006  E0.25 INCH       SAN PATRICIO       TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CORDERO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
613 PM CDT WED MAY 10 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     HAIL             SINTON                  28.03N 97.51W
05/10/2006  M1.75 INCH       SAN PATRICIO       TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            CHANNEL 10 KZTV PASSED ON THIS VIEWER REPORT.

&&

CORDERO