Red Flag Warning 26, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
423 PM CST WED NOV 29 2006

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT)...MAJOR ARCTIC FRONT
CONTINUES TO BLAST SOUTH ACROSS NRN TEXAS ATTM. EXPECT THE FRONT
TO ARRIVE BEFORE MODELS INDICATE AS VERY COLD AND DENSE AIRMASS
SURGES SOUTH DESPITE UPR TROUGH LAGGING BEHIND. 18Z NAM HAS
SIGNIFICANTLY SPED UP THE FRONT AND IS MUCH CLOSER TO MY FORECAST
TIMING WHICH IS AROUND 13 TO 14Z IN THE NORTH AND WEST AND CLOSE TO
15Z ALONG THE COAST. VERY STRONG PRESSURE RISES SHOULD LEAD TO
WINDY CONDITIONS AND WILL ISSUE WIND ADVISORY FOR ENTIRE
AREA...ALTHOUGH COASTAL AREAS AND OFFSHORE ZONES WILL SEE
STRONGEST WINDS. UNFAVORABLE VEERING WINDS TO THE SW OFF THE DECK
MAY BE COUNTERED BY VERY STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND
GOOD LIFT ASSOC W/ THE UPR TROUGH AS MODELS SHOW DECENT Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE REGION. WILL THEREFORE LEAN TOWARD THE MAV
POPS TONIGHT INTO THU SHOWING SLT CHC FAR WEST...CHC CENTRAL
ZONES...AND LIKELY FAR NE. MODELS AGREE THE SFC HIGH WILL SETTLE
ALL THE WAY INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY BY FRI MORNING. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW WINDS TO DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND LIKE LOWS
AOB COLDEST GUIDANCE WITH 20S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WILL BRING THE
FREEZING LINE INTO SECTIONS OF THE COASTAL COS AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...VERY STRONG NW FLOW EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL
HOIST GALE WARNINGS FOR ALL BUT THE BAY GROUPS AND WILL SHOW
STRONG SCAS THERE WITH GUSTS OVER GALE FORCE. WINDS DROP OFF
DRAMATICALLY LATE FRI NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WILL EXTEND FIRE WEATHER WATCH ACROSS ALL BUT VCT
AND CALHOUN COS AS LOWER NAM DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY VERIFY.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...COOL WEATHER WILL BE ON TAP
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD AS SERIES OF CANADIAN COLD FRONTS MOVE
THROUGH EVERY FEW DAYS. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A VERY NICE DAY AS WINDS
WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER THAN THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO
THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO GO A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AND
ESPECIALLY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BE
QUITE LIGHT SATURDAY MORNING...WE WILL HAVE SOME CIRRUS AS
SUBTROPICAL JET IS RIGHT OVER THE AREA...BUT THAT SHOULD NOT AFFECT
LOW TEMPS TOO MUCH SO AM EXPECTING A LIGHT FREEZE OVER THE NRN ZONES.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. NOT
MUCH MOISTURE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO WORK WITH SO HAVE REMOVED THE 20
POPS THAT WERE IN THE FORECAST. SPRAWLING 1048 HIGH (PER GFS) WILL
MOVE INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND GRADUALLY DRIFT SWD WITH 1038 HIGH OVER
CENTRAL TX MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER FREEZE
ACROSS THE NRN ZONES. COOL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THRU MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A BIT WARMER TEMPS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EWD AND SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN...HOWEVER THIS MIGHT BE TEMPERED BY
AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM STARTS TO
GET ACTIVE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO DROP ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND WILL INCLUDE 20 POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM. STILL A WEEK
OUT BUT HOPEFULLY WE WILL BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE A LITTLE BIT OF RAIN
OUT OF THIS ONE. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS WERE NOT SHOWING THIS FRONT SO
CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM RIGHT NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    69  73  33  60  37  /  20  40   0   0   0
VICTORIA          62  68  28  58  32  /  30  60   0   0   0
LAREDO            60  67  35  64  39  /  10  10   0   0  10
ALICE             62  70  30  62  35  /  20  30   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          70  73  36  59  39  /  20  50  10   0   0
COTULLA           57  65  26  62  33  /  20  20   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        68  72  33  61  37  /  20  40   0   0  10
NAVY CORPUS       71  75  40  61  41  /  20  40  10   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THURSDAY TO 6 PM THURSDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...DUVAL...GOLIAD...
     JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...LA SALLE...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...
     NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA...AND WEBB.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 6 PM THURSDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...DUVAL...GOLIAD...JIM
     WELLS...KLEBERG...LA SALLE...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...NUECES...
     REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...AND WEBB.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AND BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT FRIDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20 TO
     60 NM...AND WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20
     NM...AND COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60 NM...AND
     WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

MJG...SHORT-TERM
MW...LONG-TERM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
527 AM CST WED NOV 29 2006

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-301130-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT OCONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60 NM-
LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
527 AM CST WED NOV 29 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WITH AN APPROACHING
STRONG COLD FRONT...MAINLY EAST OF A FREER TO FOWLERTON LINE...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY NEAR THE VICTORIA AREA. NO ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A WIND ADVISORY POSSIBLY
NEEDED FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES.
ALSO...A LIGHT FREEZE IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS...AND OVER LOW LYING AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...GALE WARNING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE GULF WATERS...WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE BAY WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE OFFSHORE
WATERS...THEN AGAIN ON SUNDAY FOR ALL OF THE GULF WATERS AS ANOTHER
STRONG SURFACE HIGH MOVES TOWARD SOUTH TEXAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

TM/GW

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