Flash Flood Warning 12, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
815 PM CDT WED MAY 31 2006

.UPDATE...OTHER THAN A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS OFFSHORE AND EXTENDING
INLAND NEAR ROCKPORT AND REFUGIO...RADAR PRETTY QUIET ATTM. PESKY
TROUGH OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THAT MODELS HAVE HAD SUCH A TIME
TIME FIGURING OUT...IS ONCE AGAIN PROGGED TO MOVE FURTHER WEST
OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS HAVE BEEN OVERDOING THE WESTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IT HAS DEFINITELY MOVED MUCH CLOSER TO
THE COAST AND EXPECT MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVELY TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. APPEARS ANY HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT
SHOULD BE LOCALIZED AND DECIDED TO LET THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
EXPIRE. ALSO LOWERED POPS THE RANGE FROM LIKELY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST AND OFFSHORE TO 20 PERCENT FAR WRN ZONES...ONLY MENTIONING
HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBILITY ALONG THE COAST AND OFFSHORE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. TENDED FOR MORE ACTIVITY DURING LATE NIGHT PERIOD WHEN
CONVECTION SHOULD REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST. ALSO MADE MINOR
TWEAKS TO WINDS AND CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...WITH THE SFC TROUGH RIGHT ALONG THE COAST...WINDS NOT AS STRONG
TONIGHT AS PREVIOUS FEW NIGHT. EXPECT FLOW TO GENERALLY REMAIN IN
10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...CHALLENGE IN TAFS IS THE TIMING OF THE PRECIP. MODELS
(MAINLY GFS) PROG STRONG COASTAL CONVERGENCE 06Z THRU 18Z NR KCRP.
HAVE PUT IN CATEGORICAL PRECIP KCRP THRU 19Z...AT KALI 15Z THRU
19Z...AND KVCT 13Z THRU 22Z. AT KLRD...ONLY HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS
AFT 20Z. HAVE THUNDER IN TAFS AFTER 13Z...AS FEEL THAT DAYTIME
HEATING WILL BE NEEDED FOR SCATTERED/NUMEROUS THUNDER (ISOLD THUNDER
PSBL BFR THAT). EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO FORM THIS EVENING...THEN MVFR
CIGS WITH THUNDER MOST LOCATIONS. AS TROF MOVES TOWARD COAST...WINDS
SHOULD BECOME NE OR N...WITH WINDS BCMG ELY IN THE AFTN ALL BUT KLRD
WHICH SHOULD RMN NE WITH LOW EAST OF AREA.

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

MJG...UPDATE
GW...AVIATION

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
544 AM CDT WED MAY 31 2006

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-011100-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT OCONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60 NM-
LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
544 AM CDT WED MAY 31 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS TODAY...MAINLY NORTHEAST OF
INTERSTATE 37. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE
TROPICAL NATURE OF THE AIRMASS AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF SOME OF THE
STORMS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR ARANSAS...CALHOUN...GOLIAD...REFUGIO AND VICTORIA COUNTIES.

IN ADDITION...SOME OF THESE STORMS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
THURSDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS REGION AND COASTAL BEND.
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

76/87

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
108 AM CDT THU JUN 01 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 AM     FLASH FLOOD      CORPUS CHRISTI          27.71N 97.29W
06/01/2006                   NUECES             TX   NWS EMPLOYEE

            UNDERPASSES AND ACCESS ROADS FLOODED AND IMPASSABLE NEAR
            HIGHWAY 44 AND S.P.I.D.

&&

RUNYEN