Severe Thunderstorm Warning 32, NWS Cleveland, OH

000 
WWUS51 KCLE 142149
SVSCLE

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
548 PM EDT FRI APR 14 2006

OHC117-142200-
/O.CON.KCLE.SV.W.0032.000000T0000Z-060414T2200Z/
MORROW OH-
548 PM EDT FRI APR 14 2006


...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 600 PM EDT FOR
MORROW COUNTY...


AT 547 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE
HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR CHESTERVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CHESTERVILLE.

LAT...LON 4050 8295 4063 8295 4064 8265 4063 8263
      4056 8262 4055 8265 4049 8263 4044 8264
      4045 8301 4048 8301

$$
BM

000 
WWUS51 KCLE 142203
SVSCLE

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
602 PM EDT FRI APR 14 2006

OHC117-142212-
/O.EXP.KCLE.SV.W.0032.000000T0000Z-060414T2200Z/
MORROW OH-
602 PM EDT FRI APR 14 2006


...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR MORROW COUNTY EXPIRED AT 600 
PM EDT...

RADAR INDICATED THAT HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS WERE 
STILL POSSIBLE FROM THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE 
COUNTY.

LAT...LON 4050 8295 4063 8295 4064 8265 4063 8263
      4056 8262 4055 8265 4049 8263 4044 8264
      4045 8301 4048 8301

$$
BM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO
325 PM EDT FRI APR 14 2006

.SHORT TERM(TONIGHT-MONDAY)...
SPC ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THE BEST INSTABILITY AND WEAKEST CIN IS
OVER WRN AND SW OH WHERE THE LOW CLDS DID NOT LIMIT SFC HEATING
TODAY. LATEST RADAR PICTURES SUGGEST THAT STORMS ARE DEVELOPING JUST
SW OF FWA ALONG A BOUNDARY LEFTOVER FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. BUT
THESE STORMS SHOULD MAKE A SLIGHT TURN TO THE RIGHT AND MOVE INTO
THE DAYTON AREA LATER THIS AFTN WHERE LIFTED INDEX VALUES ARE AROUND
-10C ATTM. IT IS SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR WHAT WILL HAPPEN ACROSS NRN OH
THIS EVENING. IT IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION
JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL ROB THE MOISTURE FURTHER N AND LIMIT ANY
CONVECTION. IT IS ALSO VERY POSSIBLE THAT ANY CONVECTION MAY HOLD
OFF ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVR WI MOVES THRU
THE AREA. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG A
LEFTOVER BOUNDARY N OF FWA AS WELL. WITH THIS CONVECTION...COMBINED
WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE STRONG CONVECTION S OF FWA...HAS PROMPTED
SPC TO ISSUE A SVR THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THE SW PART OF THE CWFA
UNTIL 02Z. MDLS SUGGEST THAT AHD OF THE FRONT THAT MOISTURE MAY POOL
ALLOWING FOR AN ADDL INCREASE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THIS EVENING. THE NCEP WRF SUGGESTS THIS WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WL
BE. WL THEREFORE GO LKLY POPS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST
LOWERING TO LOW CHC ACROSS NW PA. AS THE FRONT SWEEPS THRU
OVERNIGHT...THE PCPN SHOULD END FROM NW TO SE.

AFTER FROPA TONIGHT...THE MODELS ARE VERY INSISTENT IN RAPIDLY
DRYING OUT THE ENTIRE REGION SATURDAY MORNING AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
STALLS OVER THE OH RIVER. AREAS UPSTREAM IN NRN MI/WI ARE SUNNY
TODAY...AND SEE NO REASON WHY THIS WILL NOT HAPPEN HERE ON SATURDAY.
IT SHOULD BE A VERY PLEASANT DAY ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID-UPR 60S. WITH THE STRONG HIGH BUILDING INTO THE REGION...THE
NRLY FLOW WILL KEEP AREAS NEAR THE LAKE COOLER. THE MODELS START TO
DIVERGE SAT NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY WITH THE UPR LOW MOVING OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST. AS THE UPR LOW MOVES INTO THE PLAINS...THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE BACK N AS A WARM FRONT. THE
GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN MOVING PCPN INTO THE SWRN AREAS SUN MRNG
WHILE THE ETA IS MORE CONSERVATIVE...LEAVING PCPN OUT OF THE AREA
UNTIL SUN AFTN. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE PCPN WILL HAVE TO WAIT
UNTIL THE UPR RIDGE AXIS MOVES THRU THE REGION WHICH IS BY SUNDAY
AFTN. WL THEREFORE CUT BACK POPS LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN
MORNING...AND REMOVE POPS COMPLETELY ON SUNDAY FOR NW PA. STILL
THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN LOW
MOVES JUST S OF THE AREA. LOOKS LIKE THE BOUNDARY WILL STAY S AND
WEST OF THE AREA...SO ALTHOUGH STRONGER STORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION LATE SUN AFTN INTO SUN NIGHT ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE WARM
FRONT AND LOW TRACK...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE WORST WX WILL
STAY OVR THE OHIO VALLEY. AFTER THE FROPA SUN NIGHT...EXPECT SKIES
TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL...BUT TEMPS WILL LIKELY
FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY AS CLD CVR WL KEEP TEMPS DOWN
DESPITE WARMER 850MB TEMPS. ON MONDAY...TEMPS WILL DROP BELOW NORMAL
GIVEN THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT AND LOWERING THICKNESS VALUES DURING THE
DAY.

.LONG TERM(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...

GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING WK RIDGING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WITHIN A GENERAL BLOCKY FLOW ACROSS THE COUNTRY. SFC
HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER QUEBEC AND ERN ONTARIO TUE. WITH THE BLOCK IN
PLACE AND STRONG HIGH PRES IN CONTROL...IT WILL BE HARD TO SEE ANY
PCPN UNTIL AT LEAST THU WHEN THE STRONG UPR LOW OVR THE PLAINS MOVES
INTO THE WRN LAKES AND THE WARM FRONT MOVES THRU THE AREA. WL KEEP
CHC OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS THU...THEN AGAIN ON FRIDAY WITH COLD FROPA.
WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE HIGH TUE AND WED...EXPECT COOL NE FLOW TO
KEEP TEMPS NEAR NORMAL VALUES. TEMPS WILL RISE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THU AND FRIDAY AHD OF THE CD FNT.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z-18Z)...
WARM SECTOR CONCERNS FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.  DECK OF SC HAS
FORMED OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON.  THE CLOUDS ARE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND WILL LIKELY PERSIST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  WESTERN AREAS A LITTLE DRIER ALOFT AND
SC DECK APPEARS TO BE HOLDING OFF IN THESE AREAS.  TEMPS CONTINUE TO
WARM AND INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO GENERATE OVER NW OH.  LIS -8 OVER
NRN INDIANA AT THIS TIME.  SOME INSTABILITY CONVECTION POSSIBLY
MAINLY OVER NW OH THIS AFTERNOON.  I THINK MOST OF THE CONVECTION
WILL REMAIN WEST OF TOL AND FDY BUT AN ISOLATED STORM IN THIS AREA
POSSIBLE.  THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT.
THE MODELS INDICATED THE FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
04-12Z TONIGHT.  NAM MODEL SHOWS LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
WHEN THE FRONT MOVES.  INSTABILITY STILL EXISTS OVER MOST OF THE
WESTERN FORECAST AREA.  I WILL MENTION CHC PCPN FOR THOSE AREAS IN
THAT TIME FRAME.  I WILL KEEP PCPN OUT OF FAR EASTERN SITES.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #184 UNTIL 10PM EDT
HANCOCK..SENECA...WYANDOT...CRAWFORD...KNOX...MARION...MORROW.
PA...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...MRD
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...GARNET

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
602 AM EDT FRI APR 14 2006

LEZ142>149-162>169-OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-
PAZ001>003-151015-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH-RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH-VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH-WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OH-
GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH-CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
MAUMEE BAY OH TO RENO BEACH OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-GENEVA-ON-
THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-LUCAS-WOOD-OTTAWA-
SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-
HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-MEDINA-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-WYANDOT-
CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-ASHLAND-WAYNE-STARK-MAHONING-MARION-MORROW-
HOLMES-KNOX-ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-
CRAWFORD PA-
602 AM EDT FRI APR 14 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...
NORTH CENTRAL OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO...NORTHWEST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...NONE ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE HOWEVER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.