Severe Thunderstorm Warning 318, NWS Cleveland, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO
350 PM EDT SAT SEP 9 2006

.SHORT TERM(TNT-TUE)...
SHRA/TS DEVELOPED ALONG A PREFRONTAL BOUNDARY/WIND SHIFT THIS
AFTERNOON.  THE COLD FRONT ITSELF WAS STILL LOCATED ABOUT MID LAKE.
THIS FIRST BOUNDARY WAS A WIND SHIFT FROM THE SW TO THE NW...WITH
THE COLD FRONT LATER SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE NE.  THUNDER ACTIVITY
WILL BE WITH THE FIRST LINE...WITH SOME PLAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE FROM
THE FRONT ITSELF.  ACTIVITY SHOULD SHUT DOWN QUICK BY/SHORTLY AFTER
DARK AS MID LEVEL SPEED MAX EXITS THE AREA.  AFTER THAT A FEW
SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT WILL STILL BE SAGGING SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA.  BEHIND THE FRONT...LOW STRATUS WILL BLANKET THE
AREA.  WENT WITH THE WARMER OF THE GUID.  POP GUID HARD TO DEAL
WITH...AS GFS AND FWC WERE 10 OR LOWER FOR ALL MAIN SITES FOR
TONIGHT.

BOTH GFS/WRF MOVE THE FRONT TO THE OH RIVER OVERNIGHT...BUT BASED ON
CURRENT SLOW SOUTHWARD SAG AND THAT FURTHER WEST OVER WEST IL/IOWA
THE FRONT HAS STALLED AND WILL BE GETTING READY TO PUSH NORTH AGAIN
WITH THE SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS...THINK THE FRONT
IN OUR AREA WILL PROBABLY SIT AROUND MID OHIO OR JUST SOUTH OF THAT
BY MORNING.  HAVE HELD POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA FOR SUN JUST
BELOW SLT CHC...BUT IF THIS SCENARIO TURNS OUT THEN SLT CHC OR LOW
CHC MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED TO SUN.  MORNING STRATUS MAY BE SLOW TO
ERODE...AND TEMPS SUN WILL BE TRIMMED BACK A FEW DEGREES FROM
TODAYS HIGHS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO MON AND BY THIS
POINT EITHER THE UPPER TROUGH HAS CLOSED OFF...GFS THINKING...OR
NOT...WRF THINKING. EITHER SITUATION SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF
PRECIP...TIMING WILL JUST BE AN ISSUE.  HAVE HELD WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS MON NIGHT AND TUE FOR NOW.  DURING
THIS TIME FRAME HIGHS WILL BE HOVERING IN THE LOWER 70S WITH
OVERNIGHT MINS ON THE WARM SIDE OF GUID UNDER ENOUGH CLOUD COVER.

&&

.EXTENDED (WED-SAT)...
CUT OFF LOW MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TAKES UP THE FIRST
HALF OF THE EXTENDED.  THIS WILL MEAN CHC FOR PRECIP AND MAINLY
CLOUDY SKIES.  FOR FRI AND INTO THE WEEKEND UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE
HIGH BUILD IN.  MEANWHILE A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OR CLOSES LOW DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S.  FOR THE MOST PART GFS ENSEMBLES HAVE
RIDGING ACROSS THE EAST...IT IS AFTER DAY 7 THAT THE FURTHER
EVOLUTION OF THE WESTERN TROUGH/LOW IS CLOUDY.  FEW CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION(18Z-18Z)...
FIRST WIND SHIFT CAUSING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN EXTREME
NORTHERN OHIO THE WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST IS OVER LAKE ERIE. THE
BEST MOISTURE IS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN OCCUR MAINLY OVER NORTHEAST OHIO AND NW PA. IFR
CEILING IN MICHIGAN WILL COME DOWN. SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CIGS
WILL OCCUR AFTER 12Z.
&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.OH...NONE.
.PA...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...KIELTYKA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...RESENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
602 AM EDT SAT SEP 9 2006

LEZ142>149-162>169-OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-
PAZ001>003-101015-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH-RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH-VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH-WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OH-
GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH-CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
MAUMEE BAY OH TO RENO BEACH OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-GENEVA-ON-
THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-LUCAS-WOOD-OTTAWA-
SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-
HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-MEDINA-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-WYANDOT-
CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-ASHLAND-WAYNE-STARK-MAHONING-MARION-MORROW-
HOLMES-KNOX-ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-
CRAWFORD PA-
602 AM EDT SAT SEP 9 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...
NORTH CENTRAL OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO...NORTHWEST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION.
WHILE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...A FEW STORMS
COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
236 PM EDT SAT SEP 09 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 PM     HAIL             ANDOVER                 41.61N 80.57W
09/09/2006  E0.75 INCH       ASHTABULA          OH   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

OUDEMAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
256 PM EDT SAT SEP 09 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0237 PM     HAIL             LINESVILLE              41.66N 80.42W
09/09/2006  E1.00 INCH       CRAWFORD           PA   PUBLIC

0245 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MEADVILLE               41.65N 80.15W
09/09/2006                   CRAWFORD           PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN.

0250 PM     HAIL             MEADVILLE               41.65N 80.15W
09/09/2006  E0.75 INCH       CRAWFORD           PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

OUDEMAN