Severe Thunderstorm Warning 296, NWS Cleveland, OH

000 
WWUS51 KCLE 301724
SVSCLE

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
124 PM EDT SUN JUL 30 2006

OHC151-301745-
/O.CON.KCLE.SV.W.0296.000000T0000Z-060730T1745Z/
STARK OH-
124 PM EDT SUN JUL 30 2006


...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 145 PM EDT FOR STARK
COUNTY...


AT 123 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR EAST SPARTA...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  ALLIANCE...
  WAYNESBURG...

LAT...LON 4088 8164 4065 8163 4065 8125 4073 8124
      4073 8109 4096 8108

$$

000 
WWUS51 KCLE 301745
SVSCLE

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
144 PM EDT SUN JUL 30 2006

OHC151-301754-
/O.EXP.KCLE.SV.W.0296.000000T0000Z-060730T1745Z/
STARK OH-
144 PM EDT SUN JUL 30 2006


...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR STARK COUNTY WILL BE ALLOWED 
TO EXPIRE AT 145 PM EDT...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS 
EVENING.

LAT...LON 4088 8164 4065 8163 4065 8125 4073 8124
      4073 8109 4096 8108

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO
1048 AM EDT SUN JUL 30 2006

.SHORT TERM UPDATE (THIS AFTERNOON)...
WATCHING COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING MOVING SE
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS SHOWING THIS AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING MORE IN A SSE DIRECTION.

INCREASED POPS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS FOR THE AFTERNOON. HELD HIGH CHC
POPS IF THIS AREA CONTINUES MORE TOWARDS THE SOUTH AND ONLY CLIPS
THE WESTERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL REQUIRE
MONITORING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

AS FOR REMAINDER OF FORECAST AREA MAINTAINED CHC POPS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. T-STORM OCCURRING AT THIS TIME ACROSS SRN ASHLAND CTY.
EXPECTING THIS TYPE OF ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH
MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z-12Z)...
FOG SHOULD IMPROVE BY MID MORNING AT ALL SITES. TSTORM COMPLEX OVR W
GRTLKS SHOULD DISSIPATE BFR GETTING NR FCST AREA ALTHOUGH UNSURE IF
NEW ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP FROM OUTLFOW BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL NOT FCST ANY THUNDER IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS
MVFR FOG WILL REDEVELOP AGAIN TNGT WITH SOME IFR VSBY AROUND SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
MUCH OF THE SAME AS YESTERDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...AS EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AN
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FROM NORTH DAKOTA TO NEW ENGLAND. SERIES OF
WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE STRONG 500MB FLOW HAVE ALLOWED MORE
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP UPSTREAM WITH EVEN A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
OVER LAKE ERIE AND DRIFTING INTO NW PA/SW NY THIS MORNING. STRONG
UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO OVERWHELM THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY
WHERE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT HAS BEEN FELT FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. AS
THIS RIDGE AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM AIR MOVES EAST...PRIMARY FOCUS
WILL BE ON THE CHANCE OF PRECIP TODAY AS WELL AS ON TEMPS MONDAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

THE 00Z NGM AND THE WRF INITIALIZED WELL AND ARE BOTH OUTPERFORMING
THE GFS THROUGH 6HRS. GFS LOOKS TO BE SUFFERING FROM A BIT OF
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK UPSTREAM NEAR MINNESOTA AND THIS COULD BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ABUNDANT QPF SHOWN BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.  GFS
LOOKS TOO AGGRESSIVE IN ITS ADVERTISEMENT OF AN INTENSE SHORTWAVE
DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON...HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME
LOCATING ANY SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES ON THE WATER VAPOR LOOP THIS
MORNING LET ALONE ANYTHING THAT RESEMBLES THE GFS FORECAST.  WRF AND
NGM SHOW WIDELY SCATTERED PRECIP DEVELOPING LATE IN THE DAY MAINLY
EAST OF A CLEVELAND TO CANTON LINE AND HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN CHANCE
POPS IN THIS AREA BUT BACK OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCES ELSEWHERE AND TO
REMOVE MENTION OF PRECIP AT TOLEDO AND FINDLAY FOR TODAY. WRF
SHOWING A MODERATE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY BUT SIMILAR AMOUNTS OF CAPE AND SHEAR WERE PRESENT ON SATURDAY
AND NOTHING DEVELOPED.  BEST MID LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS ALSO
CONFINED TO AREAS NORTHEAST OF CLEVELAND AND CONTINUE TO THINK THIS
WILL BE THE FAVORED AREA FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
FOR TONIGHT...AM EXPECTING A REPEAT OF EARLY THIS MORNING WHERE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED AND MOVED THROUGH NW PA/SW NY.
MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING AND EVEN HELD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCES IN THIS AREA UNTIL
MONDAY AFTERNOON.  ONCE THE RIDGE BUILDS IN...ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
WILL BE PRECIP FREE.

OTHER CONCERN IS WITH TEMPS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE
STRONG UPPER RIDGE MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
WARM TEMPERATURES THAT HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL BE ADVECTED EASTWARD STARTING ON MONDAY AND POTENTIALLY
LAST ALL THE WAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MAV GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE THE
OUTLIER MONDAY AND TUESDAY...RUNNING ABOUT 4-5 DEGREES WARMER THAN
THE MET AND FWC. GIVEN MAV PERFORMANCE DURING LAST HEAT WAVE...AM
INCLINED TO TRIM A FEW DEGREES OFF OF ITS FORECASTED TEMPS AND GO
WITH A BLEND OF THE MET/FWC MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WOULD YIELD
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S MONDAY...MID TO UPPER 90S ON TUESDAY.
THINK THAT ABUNDANT SOIL MOISTURE WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM REACHING THE
TRIPLE DIGITS THIS WEEK BUT AM CONCERNED THAT SOME LOCATIONS MAY
REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A FEW HOURS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  AT
THIS POINT HAVE OPTED AGAINST ANY HEADLINES SINCE THERE IS STILL
SOME DOUBT ABOUT EXACTLY WHICH COUNTIES WILL EXCEED CRITERIA BOTH
DAYS...ALSO SOME CONCERN THAT HEAT INDICES MAY BE HOT ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A WARNING.  WILL ALLOW COMING SHIFTS TO REVIEW NEW GUIDANCE
AND DETERMINE IF ANY HEADLINES ARE WARRANTED.

&&

.LONG TERM(WED-SAT)...
COLD FRONT IS THE FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST.  COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE FORECAST FOR THU MORNING...SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND MORE IN
LINE WITH THE TIMING OF THE DGEX.  PRIOR TO FROPA....HEAT WAVE WILL
BE IN ITS FINAL DAY.  TEMPS AGAIN AROUND OR ABOVE 90.  LOW CHC POPS
FOR POSSIBLE PREFRONTAL TROUGH BEING PICKED UP BY DGEX AND 12ZGFS.
INCREASED POPS FOR FROPA.  BEHIND THE FRONT TEMPS RETURN CLOSE TO
NORMS TO FINISH OUT THE WEEK...BUT A WARMUP BEGINS LATE IN THE
WEEKEND FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER BIG CENTRAL
U.S. RIDGE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.OH...NONE.
.PA...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM UPDATE...ABE
SHORT TERM...LEINS
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...KOSARIK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1017 AM EDT SUN JUL 30 2006

LEZ142>149-162>169-OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-
PAZ001>003-311430-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH-RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH-VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH-WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OH-
GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH-CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
MAUMEE BAY OH TO RENO BEACH OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-GENEVA-ON-
THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-LUCAS-WOOD-OTTAWA-
SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-
HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-MEDINA-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-WYANDOT-
CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-ASHLAND-WAYNE-STARK-MAHONING-MARION-MORROW-
HOLMES-KNOX-ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-
CRAWFORD PA-
1017 AM EDT SUN JUL 30 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...
NORTH CENTRAL OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO...NORTHWEST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD BE
SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY LARGE HAIL. BRIEF PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

HEAT INDICES COULD APPROACH 100 OVER NORTHWEST OHIO THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

HOT AND HUMID AIR WILL AFFECT NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE 90S WITH HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 100 AND 104. HEAT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.

A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY COULD CAUSE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION COULD BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

KIELTYKA