Severe Thunderstorm Warning 282, NWS Cleveland, OH

000 
WWUS51 KCLE 201815
SVSCLE

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
216 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2006

OHC083-201845-
/O.CON.KCLE.SV.W.0282.000000T0000Z-060720T1845Z/
KNOX OH-
216 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2006


...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 245 PM EDT FOR KNOX
COUNTY...


AT 208 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR DANVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

LAT...LON 4035 8232 4037 8264 4048 8264 4052 8262
      4054 8264 4055 8231 4056 8229 4056 8221
      4034 8220 4034 8231

$$

000 
WWUS51 KCLE 201844
SVSCLE

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
245 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2006

OHC083-201855-
/O.CAN.KCLE.SV.W.0282.000000T0000Z-060720T1845Z/
KNOX OH-
245 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2006


...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR KNOX COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

RADAR INDICATED THAT HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS WERE
STILL POSSIBLE FROM THE THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 4035 8232 4037 8264 4048 8264 4052 8262
      4054 8264 4055 8231 4056 8229 4056 8221
      4034 8220 4034 8231

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO
130 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2006

.AVIATION(18Z-18Z)...
A LINE OF STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED JUST WEST OF MFD AND CLE ALONG THE
OUTFLOW FROM THE DYING MCS OVR INDIANA. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING INTO
A FAIRLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE SO EXPECT THEM TO AT LEAST MAINTAIN
THEIR INTENSITY OR EVEN STRENGTHEN AS THEY  MOVE EAST.
HOWEVER...SINCE THE BOUNDARY IS MOVING FAIRLY FAST...THEY SHOULD BE
OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 22Z IF NOT EARLIER. AFTER THAT...THE NAM
AND GFS SUGGEST THAT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR THIS EVENING
BUT WITH THE ATMOSPHERE SO WORKED OVER UPSTREAM. WL BRING TAFS DOWN
TO MVFR OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...THEN BACK TO VFR ON FRI MRNG.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THIS AFTERNOON)...
MAINLY COSMETIC CHANGES. WILL SPLIT FAR WESTERN GROUP INTO
TWO...WILL KEEP OCCASIONAL IN FAR WEST AND THEN LIKELY FOR REST OF
THAT GROUP.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY)UPDATE...
PCPN OVER INDIANA MAY GET INTO NORTHWEST OHIO QUICKER THAN
FORECAST...THUS UPDATED. ALSO PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL BE OVER THE AREA
FROM THE DECAYING MCS...THUS ADDED BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. ALSO
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWN. THIS EXTRA CLOUDS MAY HAVE DECREASE THE
SEVERE THREAT. THE SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE AFTER 20Z AT THE EARLIEST.
&&

.SHORT TERM(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
WATCHING MCS OVER IL. THE MAIN BULK SHOULD JUST MISS THE FORECAST
AREA BUT SOME MAY GET CLOSE AND THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. THE
THICKNESS SEEMS TO INDICATE THAT IT SHOULD TRY TO DIVE SOUTH.
OTHERWISE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE TOO MUCH CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AND TRYING
TO START THE PRECIPITATION TOO SOON. ALSO ALL THE CLOUD COVER FROM
THE MCS MAY HELP KEEP THE INSTABILITY UNDER CONTROL...BECAUSE OF
QUESTIONS WILL NOT MENTION SEVERE IN THE ZONES JUST THE HWO. THE
WRF/NAM TRIES TO MOVE THINGS QUICKER THAN THE GFS THIS MAKES SENSE
WITH THE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PROBLEMS ON THE GFS IT IS TOO SLOW.
ATTM WILL HAVE SOME PCPN LINGER INTO FRIDAY AM IN THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA....OTHERWISE WILL LET THE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILD IN. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES OK. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE AMOUNT
OF CLOUD COVER TODAY AS THAT COULD AFFECT THE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM(SATURDAY-WEDNESDAY)...
NO REAL CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED.
STILL LOOKS LIKE A DECENT COOLDOWN FOR THE WKND. HAVE DISREGARDED
THE NAM SOLN SHOWING PCPN ON SATURDAY...AS THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
AND OTHER MED RANGE MODELS DO NOT SUPPORT THIS. HAVE CONTINUED THE
DRY FCST FOR THE WKND...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME CLOUDS ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW AMPLIFICATION OF THE
PATTERN ACROSS THE COUNTRY...WITH A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND
THE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS IN THE 70S FOR THE WKND. THE FRONT SHOULD BECOME STATIONARY
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP ANY PCPN OUT OF THE REGION UNTIL MONDAY
NIGHT WHEN THE FLOW BECOMES FLATTER AND THE SFC FRONT MOVES BACK
NORTH. THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT FRONT MAY BECOME STATIONARY OVER OHIO
TUE AND WED WHICH MAY SERVE AS FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. WL THEREFORE
INTRODUCE 30 POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO
ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.OH...NONE.
.PA...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN/KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...KIELTYKA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
347 AM EDT THU JUL 20 2006

LEZ142>149-162>169-OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-
PAZ001>003-211115-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH-RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH-VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH-WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OH-
GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH-CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
MAUMEE BAY OH TO RENO BEACH OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-GENEVA-ON-
THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-LUCAS-WOOD-OTTAWA-
SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-
HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-MEDINA-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-WYANDOT-
CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-ASHLAND-WAYNE-STARK-MAHONING-MARION-MORROW-
HOLMES-KNOX-ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-
CRAWFORD PA-
347 AM EDT THU JUL 20 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...
NORTH CENTRAL OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO...NORTHWEST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. A
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BE THE TRIGGER OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

OUDEMAN