Severe Thunderstorm Warning 226, NWS Cleveland, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO
258 PM EDT SUN JUL 02 2006

.SHORT TERM(TONITE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
AS EXPECTED WITH CONVECTION...THE MODELS DIFFER IN PALCEMENT OF THE
SMALLER CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN FEATURES OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  WITH
AMS VERY MOIST WITH PWS 1.5 TO 2 IN AND INSTABILITY CONTG EVEN DURG
THE NITE SEE NO REASON WHY SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY SHUD NOT BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD SO WL TEND TO LEAN TO THE HIER POPS EACH DAY.  BEST PD
FOR VERY LTL ACTIVITY ACCORDING TO MODEL AVGS APPEARS TO BE LATE
TNGT INTO MON AFTN WITH SOME WK RDGG AND GNL NEG VVS. HVY RA LIKELY
THRU TUE WITH THE TSRA. HAD BEEN ON THE FENCE TWD WHETHER TO PUT UP
FLOOD WATCH BUT NOW THINKING THAT THE AREA SHUD BE OKAY THRU ANY
CONVECTION THIS EVE AND WITH ACTIVITY DIMINISHING LATER TNGT TIL MON
AFTN DONT CURRENTLY SEE THE NEED. THREAT FOR SVR TSRA DURG AFTN AND
EVE SHUD ALSO CONT THRU DAYTIME TUE TIL CDFNT FINALLY MOVS THRU AND
HELPS TO STABILIZE AMS BY TUE EVE.  VERY WRM AND MUGGY CONDS WL BE
THE RULE THRU TUE ALTHO TUE TEMPS NOT AS WRM AS MON DUE TO MORE CLDS
AND CDFNT MOVG SE ACRS AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM (WED THRU SUN)...
FOR ONCE THIS SUMMER THE EXTENDED PRO0GS FM THE GFS RMN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT SHOWING THE SFC RDGG BLDG IN WED MORN WITH HI MOVG OVHD
REST OF WK AND THRU THE WEEKEND. ONLY PROB CUD BE S/W TROFS DROPPING
INTO MAIN TROF TRYING TO CREATE ENUF FORCING FOR PSBL SHRA INTO THE
NERN PART OF AREA WHERE BETTER MSTR CAN BE POOLED FM THE LAKES AND
DYNAICS A LTL BETTER. FOR NOW MAY JUST PUT A SLGT CHC FOR SHRA IN
THE NE DEPENDING ON HOW THIS COORDS WITH ERN BORDERING OFFICES.

&&

.AVIATION(18Z-18Z)...
FIRST SHOT OF PCPN MOVING ACROSS THE NRN COUNTIES...AIRMASS TO THE
WEST AND SOUTH BECOMING MORE UNSTABLE AS PER THE RUC AND PLENTY OF
SUN...THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. RIGHT REAR QUAD OF THE JET HELPING.
HOWEVER...THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE AFTER DARK. AS THE CLOUDS
DECREASE SOME FOG MAY FOR IFR TO MVFR BECAUSE OF THE MOIST AIR AND
SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION. THE ACTIVITY ON MONDAY MAY HOLD OFF IN NW
OHIO UNTIL AFT 21Z MONDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.OH...NONE.
.PA...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...KIELTYKA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
537 AM EDT SUN JUL 2 2006

LEZ142>149-162>169-OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-
PAZ001>003-031200-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH-RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH-VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH-WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OH-
GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH-CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
MAUMEE BAY OH TO RENO BEACH OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-GENEVA-ON-
THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-LUCAS-WOOD-OTTAWA-
SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-
HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-MEDINA-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-WYANDOT-
CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-ASHLAND-WAYNE-STARK-MAHONING-MARION-MORROW-
HOLMES-KNOX-ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-
CRAWFORD PA-
537 AM EDT SUN JUL 2 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...
NORTH CENTRAL OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO...NORTHWEST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF MICHIGAN AND STALL OVER NORTHERN
OHIO TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG
THIS FRONT...AND IT IS POSSIBLE SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND
ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS COULD ALSO BECOME
SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

LEINS