Severe Thunderstorm Warning 178, NWS Cleveland, OH

000 
WWUS51 KCLE 221914
SVSCLE

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
314 PM EDT THU JUN 22 2006

OHC043-221930-
/O.CON.KCLE.SV.W.0178.000000T0000Z-060622T1930Z/
ERIE OH-
314 PM EDT THU JUN 22 2006


...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 330 PM EDT FOR ERIE
COUNTY...


AT 307 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED 6 MILES WEST OF SANDUSKY...AND MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  SANDUSKY SOUTH...
  HURON...
  FAIRVIEW LANES...

LAT...LON 4144 8275 4146 8267 4149 8270 4149 8268
      4141 8258 4139 8251 4143 8237 4135 8235
      4134 8253 4138 8281 4148 8281

$$

000 
WWUS51 KCLE 221934
SVSCLE

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
334 PM EDT THU JUN 22 2006

OHC043-221944-
/O.EXP.KCLE.SV.W.0178.000000T0000Z-060622T1930Z/
ERIE OH-
334 PM EDT THU JUN 22 2006


...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR ERIE COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT 330
PM EDT...

LAT...LON 4144 8275 4146 8267 4149 8270 4149 8268
      4141 8258 4139 8251 4143 8237 4135 8235
      4134 8253 4138 8281 4148 8281

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO
145 PM EDT THU JUN 22 2006

.AVIATION(18Z-18Z)...
LINE OF TSRA FROM EXTREME NW OH TO SW INDIANA MOVING EAST AT 35-40
KT...EXPECT INTO KCLE BY 5 PM EDT.  EXPECT POP CORN TSRA TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE LINE.  SPC HAS THE FORECAST AREA IN A MODERATE RISK FOR
SEVERE TSRA.  BEST CHANCE OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH BEST RISK FOR DOWNBURST WINDS.  EXPECT LINE TO CONTINUE TO MOVE
E AND NOT HAVE THE TRAINING LIKE LAST NIGHT.

FRONT CURRENTLY FROM TOL NE ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE ERIE WILL PUSH SOUTH
TONIGHT.  EXPECT FNT NR A YNG-MFD BY 12 FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
ETA AND NGM SHOW DRIER AIR PUNCHING ACRS NRN PART OF AREA TDA WHILE
GFS FURTHER N WITH THE DRIER AIR. BASED ON CDFNT ONLY SAGGING SSE
INTO NRN OH LATE TDA/THIS EVE WL SIDE WITH GFS AND KP THREAT FOR
SHRA AND TSRA WITH POPS REFLECTIVE OF HIER GFS THREAT. SVR THREAT
RMNS TDA INTO TNGT BUT SHUD BE FAIRLY QUIET TIL AFTN WHEN AMS
DESTABILIZES WITH DAYTIME HTG.  HVY RA PSBL SO WL XTD FFA THRU 10 PM
TNGT AND ADD IN KNOX...WAYNE...STARK AND MAHONING WHERE HVR RA
OCCURRED/OCCURRING.

CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA CONTS INTO TNGT THEN SHIFT CHC MNLY INTO SRN COS
BY FRI INTO FRI NITE. SVR THREAT SHUD MOV S OF AREA FOR FRI AS CDFNT
SAGS JUST S OF AREA ALLOWING COOLER AIR TO PUSH S HELPING TO
STABILIZE THE AMS SOME.

&&

.LONG TERM (SAT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN SHAPING UP FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.  HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO SETTLE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST INTO
THE FORECAST AREA WITH ASSOCIATED DRY AIR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.  MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHUD MOVE
MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA AS WELL.  SO WILL KEEP IT DRY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...XCPT TO SLGT CHC NR PBZ COS.

RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE AREA INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
BUT WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES
OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL FORCE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND A SLGT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT AND ON MONDAY OVER THE
EXTREME EAST AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL REMAIN DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
EAST INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND ALONG WITH DRIER AIR.  THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH MEAN 1000 TO 500 MB MOISTURE OVER THE AREA TO KEEP
SKIES FROM BEING CLEAR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE BEGINNING TO MODERATE FROM
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS.  WILL UP MINS AND MAXES BY ABOUT 3 TO 4 DEGREES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TIL 10 PM THU EVE FOR ALL COS.
.PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TIL 10 PM THU EVE FOR ERIE AND CRAWFORD.

&&

SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY/ADAMS
AVIATION...DJB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
518 AM EDT THU JUN 22 2006

LEZ142>149-162>169-OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-
PAZ001>003-230930-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH-RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH-VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH-WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OH-
GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH-CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
MAUMEE BAY OH TO RENO BEACH OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-GENEVA-ON-
THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-LUCAS-WOOD-OTTAWA-
SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-
HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-MEDINA-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-WYANDOT-
CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-ASHLAND-WAYNE-STARK-MAHONING-MARION-MORROW-
HOLMES-KNOX-ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-
CRAWFORD PA-
518 AM EDT THU JUN 22 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...
NORTH CENTRAL OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO...NORTHWEST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. THE MAIN THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL APPEAR TO BE THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO
POSSIBLE.

ALSO A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA THROUGH
THIS EVENING. HEAVY RAINS YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT HAVE LEFT A HIGH
POTENTIAL FOR POSSIBLE FLOODING FROM THE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE GROUND IS SATURATED AND MANY
STREAMS AND RIVERS ARE ALREADY RUNNING HIGH WITH A FEW EVEN
CURRENTLY IN FLOOD IN NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN FROM SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
A THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING. THE MAIN THREAT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL TEND TO BE OVER THE INLAND COUNTIES AS MUCH OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHIFTS INLAND AWAY FROM THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT.