Severe Thunderstorm Warning 150, NWS Cleveland, OH

000 
WWUS51 KCLE 211759
SVSCLE

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
158 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2006

OHC139-211808-
/O.CAN.KCLE.SV.W.0150.000000T0000Z-060621T1815Z/
RICHLAND OH-
158 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2006


...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR RICHLAND COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED AND IS NO LONGER 
SEVERE.

LAT...LON 4085 8271 4085 8242 4073 8240 4072 8234
      4064 8234 4066 8264 4068 8262 4072 8264
      4071 8273

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO
1000 AM EDT WED JUN 21 2006

.SHORT TERM(REST OF TODAY)...
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG AN WEST OF INTERSTATE 77.
UPDATE WAS MAIN FOR WORDING AND GROUPING OF THE ZONES.
&&

.AVIATION(12Z-12Z)...
ONGOING AREA OF ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN OHIO ASSOCIATED
WITH A SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD THIS
MORNING BUT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN BY LATE MORNING.  WILL MAKE
MENTION OF TEMPOS AT ALL SITES TO ALLOW FOR THIS AREA OF RAIN TO
MOVE THROUGH BUT AM EXPECTING A DRY PERIOD LATE MORNING THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON AS NORTHERN OHIO/NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA BECOME POSITIONED
IN THE WARM SECTOR OF AN APPROACHING LOW.  STILL EXPECTING
CONVECTIVE INITIATION SOMETIME AROUND 19-21Z ACROSS EASTERN INDIANA
WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SHORTLY
THEREAFTER.  TRIED TO PIN DOWN TIMING OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL AS BEST
AS POSSIBLE PER WRF MODEL AND FOCUSED ON THE 22-24Z TIME PERIOD NEAR
TOL AND FDY...01Z TO 03Z NEAR CLEVELAND AND AROUND 02-04Z NEAR YNG.
GUSTS TO 40 KTS MENTIONED AT THIS POINT.

LATE IN THE PERIOD BOTH GFS AND NAM SHOW A STALLED BOUNDARY AROUND
INTERSTATE 70 WHICH BECOMES THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.  WENT WITH VCSH ALL
SITES BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO GO WITH
CONTINUOUS RAIN SHOWERS OUTRIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THRU THUR NIGHT)...
SHOWERS AND TSTMS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING OVER NE INDIANA AND
LMIC NORTH OF WARM FRONT BUT LARGE SCALE COMPLEX ANTICIPATED IN
EARLIER FCST DIDNT DEVPL. WARM FRONT SW AREA FROM IA TO CENTRAL KY
WILL LIFT NE INTO NE OHIO THIS EVENING AND EAST OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WHILE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA
BY THURSDAY MORNING. GFS AND WRF MODELS QUITE DIFFER ON HANDLING
SHOWERS/TSTMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. PREFER WRF SINCE IT  SEEMS TO HAVE
A BETTER HANDLE ON NEARBY CURRENT CONDITIONS. SINCE THERE ARE SOME
TSTMS DEVELOPING NEAR WARM FRONT WILL GO WITH CHC POPS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AREA THIS MORNING HOLDING OFF IN THE FAR EAST UNTIL THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
NEAR CDFNT OVER NRN IN AND LOWER MI LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS S/W OVER
NEBRASKA MOVES ENE INTO THE SOUTHERN LAKES REGION THIS EVENING
MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH THE LOWER LAKES TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH
CURRENT FORECAST OF LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE AREA ESPECIALLY EARLY
TONIGHT...HOLDING ONTO LKLY POPS OVERNIGHT IN THE NE. CONTINUE WITH
CHC SHOWERS/TSTMS THU AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS FRONT DROPS SLOWLY SE
INTO THE AREA. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT AS S/W MOVING OUT NEBRASKA
THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP COMPLEX OF STORMS NRN INDIANA AND
SOUTHERN MI LATER THIS AFTERNOON MOVING EAST INTO THE AREA THIS
EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRI THRU TUE)...
GFS AND DGEX REMAIN RIDDLED WITH CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK SO HARD TO PIN
DOWN THE IMPORTANT FEATURES. ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE A LITTLE CLEANER
LOOKING WITH A SIMILAR PATTERN TO GFS AND DGEX. THERE IS STILL A
CONSISTENT TREND TOWARD HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA BUILDING
SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WHILE WE WILL REMAIN
NEAR THE BAROCLINIC ZONE I WILL STICK WITH A DRY FCST (POPS BLO 20%)
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK HOPING THE BOUNDARY IS FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH THAT WE WILL NOT BE BRUSHED BY ANY ELEVATED OVERRUNNING.
TROUGH ALOFT ACTUALLY DEEPENS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT TO THE WEST
OF THE FCST AREA SO EVENTUALLY SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION MAY BEGIN TO
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH. GFS AND
ESPECIALLY ENSEMBLE EXTENDED GUIDANCE KEEP POPS BLO CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMS ALTHOUGH NCEP POP PROGS CONTINUE TO BE HIGHER. WILL NOT
INTRODUCE ANY SHOWER/STORMS AT THIS TIME ON MONDAY OR TUESDAY AND IN
ALL PROBABILITY ANY CONVECTION WOULD LIKELY AFFECT A SMALL PART OF
FCST AREA AND BE RESTRICTED TO AFTERNOON/EVENING SO WILL JUST KEEP
MONITORING LONG RANGE PROGS AT THIS TIME.

TEMP GUIDANCE TRENDING DOWN EVEN MORE AND WILL TWEAK FCST DOWN A
DEGREE OR SO DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ALTHOUGH WE ARE
ALREADY A COUPLE OF CATEGORIES BELOW NORMAL IN THE CURRENT FCST SO
WILL NOT GO WILD. IN ANY CASE...SHOULD SEE RELATIVELY COOL TEMPS
WITH LOW DEWPOINTS THIS WEEKEND. AS FLOW VEERS TO THE SOUTHEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER BACK TO NEAR NORMAL (80ISH)
ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.OH...NONE.
.PA...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...THOMPSON/WCR
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...LEINS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
458 AM EDT WED JUN 21 2006

LEZ142>144-162>164-OHZ003-006>009-017>019-220900-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH-RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH-
MAUMEE BAY OH TO RENO BEACH OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-LUCAS-WOOD-
OTTAWA-SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-
458 AM EDT WED JUN 21 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...
NORTH CENTRAL OHIO AND NORTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
WHILE A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT.

THE MAIN THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE FROM LATE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY TONIGHT WHEN A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND THESE MAY ALSO BE SEVERE. DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY TONIGHT.

LEZ145>149-165>169-OHZ010>014-020>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-
PAZ001>003-220900-
VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH-AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH-
WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OH-GENEVA-ON-THE-
LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH-CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-GENEVA-ON-
THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-
LAKE-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-MEDINA-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-
WYANDOT-CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-ASHLAND-WAYNE-STARK-MAHONING-MARION-
MORROW-HOLMES-KNOX-ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-
SOUTHERN ERIE-CRAWFORD PA-
458 AM EDT WED JUN 21 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...
NORTH CENTRAL OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO...NORTHWEST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND EARLY
TONIGHT...WHILE A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND JUST NORTH OF THE AREA
TONIGHT.

THE MAIN THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE THIS EVENING AND
EARLY TONIGHT WHEN A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA. HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AND THESE MAY ALSO BE SEVERE. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
LARGE HAIL APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
TONIGHT.