Severe Thunderstorm Warning 127, NWS Cleveland, OH

000 
WWUS51 KCLE 192008
SVSCLE

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
406 PM EDT MON JUN 19 2006

OHC093-192030-
/O.CON.KCLE.SV.W.0127.000000T0000Z-060619T2030Z/
LORAIN OH-
406 PM EDT MON JUN 19 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM EDT
FOR NORTHERN LORAIN COUNTY...

AT 404 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DIME SIZE HAIL...
AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
AVON LAKE...OR ABOUT 12 MILES NORTHEAST OF LORAIN...MOVING EAST AT 40
MPH.  A SECOND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SOUTH 
AMHERST...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

WIND DAMAGE WITH THIS STORM MAY OCCUR WELL AHEAD OF ANY RAIN OR
LIGHTNING. DO NOT WAIT FOR THE SOUND OF THUNDER BEFORE TAKING COVER.
SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT MONDAY
EVENING FOR NORTHWEST OHIO. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS
IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT MONDAY EVENING FOR NORTHEASTERN OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

LAT...LON 4157 8221 4142 8242 4120 8200 4151 8197

$$

BMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO
305 PM EDT MON JUN 19 2006

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
THREE AREAS OF SHOWERS/STORMS...FIRST OVR CENTRAL INDIANA DIVING
SOUTHEAST. SECOND FROM SE LWR MI EXPANDING ACROSS SW ONTARIO ALONG
SFC TROUGH. THIRD JUST AHEAD OF CDFNT NR KLAN. NICE SHORTWAVE ALOFT
ALONG IL/WI BORDER. WILL LIKELY SEE STORMS ACROSS LWR MI/ONTARIO
EVENTUALLY MERGE TOGETHER AHEAD OF WAVE AND CDFNT. MUST BE SOME
CAPPING SUBSIDENCE OCCURRING BETWEEN EXITING SHORTWAVE FROM THIS
MORNING AND APPROACHING SHORT WAVE AS CUMULUS ACROSS NE OH/NW PA
RATHER MODERATE AT THE MOMENT. INSTABILITY IMPRESSIVE ACROSS NW OH
WITH LI ABOUT -8 AND DEWPOINTS POOLING AHEAD OF TROUGH. THINK LINE
OF STORMS WILL EXPAND SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE AND MOVE SE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING TOWARD FDY MARION AND MFD. UNSURE HOW MUCH THE
STORMS WILL HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY CROSS THE MARINE LAYER OVER LAKE
ERIE AND STP SAYS ADDITIONAL BOX MAY BE NEEDED EAST OF 510. WILL USE
LEFTOVER WEATHER AND EARLY TONIGHT PHRASING IN FCST FOR ALL ZONES
AND WILL LIKELY CALL IT SCATTERED/CHANCE UNLESS LINE OF STORMS IS
SOLIDIFYING BFR GOING TO PRESS. AIRMASS BEHIND CDFNT IS COOLER AND
DRIER AND WILL BE ESPECIALLY NOTICEABLE NEAR LAKE ERIE. WITH FLATTER
RIDGE AND SHORT WAVES TRAVELING ACROSS THE NOTHERN STATES IT WILL
TIME FOR STORM COMPLEX SEASON TO RESUME. FIRST COMPLEX WILL COME
QUICKLY OVER UPPER MIDWEST TOMORROW AND NW OHO WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE SYSTEM BY LATE AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL LIKELY
SHIFT FARTHER EAST BY WEDNESDAY AND WILL INCLUDE CHANCE POPS AS
EARLY AS TUE NGT NW OHIO AND MOST OF FCST AREA WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH
STORMS MAY MISS EXTREME NE OH/NW PA.

TEMP GUIDANCE SIMILAR THRU TUE NGT ALTHOUGH WILL GO WITH HIGHER END
GUIDANCE WESTERN PART OF FCST AREA TUE NGT AS CLOUDS WILL INCREASE.
GFS TEMP GUIDANCE MAY BE A CATEGORY TOO WARM WEDNESDAY IF WE HAVE
CLOUDS BUT HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BEGIN WORKING BACK NE.

&&

.LONG TERM (THU THRU MON)...
STILL THE SAME ISSUES FACING THE EXTENDED FCST. A RELATIVELY FAST
AND MORE ZONAL FLOW WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES EVOLVING INTO MORE OF
A TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE WEEKEND. SHOULD BE PLENTY OF HEAT AND
HUMIDITY DURING THE MID AND LATE WEEK FOR A THREAT OF SHOWERS/STORMS
ALTHOUGH DIFFICULT AT THIS POINT TO PIN DOWN A SPECIFIC FAVORED
TIME/DAY OR AREA. COULD EVEN BE ACTIVITY AT NIGHT WITH FLAT RIDGE
JUST TO THE SOUTH AND STRONG BAROCLINC ZONE NEARBY. SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL BE NEAR THE AREA ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WILL
CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS PRETTY MUCH EVEYWHERE INTO THE WEEKEND.
STILL FEEL THAT WE HAVE A SHOT AT SOME POTENTIALLY DRY WEATHER BY
THE WEEKEND HOPING THAT THE BOUNDARY GETS SURPRESSSED SOUTH ALTHOUGH
SOME MODELS STILL KEEP CONVECTION ACROSS LOWER GREAT LAKES, THIS IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AS AIRMASS WILL BE SHALLOW ENOUGH TO BE OVERUN BY
ELEVATED CONVECTION. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP A FULL BLOW
SURFACE WAVE TO OUR EAST ON SUNDAY AND FEEL THIS MAY BE A BIT
OVERDONE. WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
COUNTIES OVER THE WEEKEND AND SEE IF A TREND DEVELOPS DURING THE
WEEK SO THAT WE CAN ADJUST FCST FARTHER NORTH OR SOUTH.

TEMPS WARM THRU THURSDAY...NEAR GFS/NCEP EXTENDED TEMP GUIDANCE.
COOLER ON FRIDAY ALTHOUGH NOT AS COOL AS GUIDANCE. WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL FCST TEMPS BELOW
NORMAL...IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION(18Z-18Z)...
UPPER TROUGH WILL ACTIVATE UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER OH/IN/MI THIS
AFTERNOON. THE ENTIRE AREA HAS A RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS.
ORGANIZED SHRA/TS WILL DEVELOP FIRST ACROSS WESTERN OH TAF SITES.
ELSEWHERE A FEW TCU MAY DEVELOP INTO CB...ESPECIALLY WHERE ENHANCED
CU NOW PRESENT ACROSS FAR EAST. MODELS INDICATING BULK OF ENERGY
WILL DIP SOUTH POSSIBLY LEAVING NE OH/NW PA OUT OF MUCH OF THE
ACTION.  TAFS TRY TO DEPICT THIS AS BEST AS POSSIBLE.

HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY WORKS IN FOR TUE.  SO QUICKLY THAT WE MAY HAVE
SOME LIGHT FG/BR FOR WESTERN SITES...AND MAY DEVELOP SOME MVFR CIGS
ALONG THE EAST LAKESHORE AND INLAND WHERE GRADIENT STAYS UP AND SOME
MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS STILL PRESENT.  FAIR WEATHER DAY TUE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.OH...SVR WATCH BOX 510.
.PA...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...OUDEMAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
509 AM EDT MON JUN 19 2006

LEZ142>149-162>169-OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-
PAZ001>003-201200-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH-RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH-VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH-WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OH-
GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH-CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
MAUMEE BAY OH TO RENO BEACH OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-GENEVA-ON-
THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-LUCAS-WOOD-OTTAWA-
SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-
HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-MEDINA-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-WYANDOT-
CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-ASHLAND-WAYNE-STARK-MAHONING-MARION-MORROW-
HOLMES-KNOX-ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-
CRAWFORD PA-
509 AM EDT MON JUN 19 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...
NORTH CENTRAL OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO...NORTHWEST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OHIO THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
PENNSYLVANIA BY THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS
BEING DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON IF STORMS BECOME SEVERE.