Lake Effect Snow Advisory 9, NWS Cleveland, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO
330 PM EST MON MAR 13 2006

.SHORT TERM(TNGT-WED)...

COLD FRONT IS BECOMING ACTIVE AT THIS TIME AS CONVECTION IS
BEGINNING TO FIRE OVER WESTERN OHIO ALONG A NARROW AXIS OF
INSTABILITY WITH LI DOWN TO -2. SHEAR IS INTENSE WITH 0-1 KM VALUES
NEAR 30 KNOTS AND 0-6 KM AROUND 50-60 KNOTS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY
INCREASE IN INTENSITY THIS EVENING AS IT SWEEPS EAST. A PERIOD OF
HIGH WINDS WILL ENSUE ALONG AND BEHIND FRONT  OVERNIGHT EXPECT
GRADIENT WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUST OF 40 TO 45 KNOTS. BUFKIT
SHOWS SOME OF INLAND SITE OF TOL AND MFD WITH A BRIEF PERIOD THIS
EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL OF GUSTING OVER 50 KT FROM THE NAM. OTHER
LOCATIONS DONT HAVE A WELL MIXED DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER AND THUS HAVE
WEAKER WINDS. WL INCLUDE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TNGT.

MUCH COLD AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TNGT AND TEMPERATURES WILL
PLUNGE TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS. SEASONABLE READINGS ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY AS A COLD MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS. SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP LATE TNGT AND TUESDAY IN THE SNOWBELT EAST
OF CLE. LOW LEVEL INVERSION THAT DEVELOPS WITH THE COLD AIR IS
RATHER SHALLOW ON TUE AND WED AND THIS SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT THE
INTENSITY AND AMOUNT OF LES IN THE SNOWBELT EAST OF CLE. MAV TEMP
GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE.

RAINFALL TODAY HAS BEEN LIGHT FOR THE MOST PART AND EXPECTED ONLY
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN THIS EVEING SO WE WILL LET THE FLOOD WATCH
EXPIRE.

&&

.LONG TERM(WED-MON)...

THE ECMWF AND THE GFS ARE RATHER SIMILAR DURING THIS PERIOD WHICH
INCREASE CONFIDENCE IN THE FCST. A MORE SEASONABLE PERIOD IS
EXPECTED WITH A MAINLY SNOW EVENT FOR THURSDAY. SOME MIXED PCPN MAY
FALL OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE OHIO
VALLEY TO OUR SOUTH. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE REGION FRIDAY
WITH SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFCT IN THE FAVORED AREAS AND THEN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RIDGE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AND MOVE LITTLE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (UPDATE FOR WATCH #88)
ZONE WAS UPDATED TO INCLUDE WATCH #88 FOR NORTH CENTRAL...NORTHEAST
OHIO...NORTHWEST PENNYSLVANIA.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z-18Z)...
ACTIVE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM WESTERN LWR MI TO NE ARKANSAS
TO MOVE EASTWARD. FRONT WL BE ACCOMPANIED BY HVY RAIN/TSTMS...STRONG
GUSTY WNDS AND HAIL. WINDS OVR NRN IND STARTING GUSTS ARND 45 KNOTS
AS OF 1 PM. SO WILL CONT PREVIOUS THINKING OF HIGH WINDS OF AT LEAST
45 KNOTS HERE IN THE NORTH. AIR BEHIND COLD FRONT TO BRING TEMPS
INTO THE MID 30S BY 7 AM WITH A FEW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS (CLE &
ERI).

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND ADVISORY ALL OF CLE OHIO COUNTIES TONIGHT UNTIL 6 AM
TUE OHZ003-006>013-019 FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO         6 AM TUESDAY.

PA...WIND ADVISORY ERIE AND CRAWFORD TONIGHT UNTIL 6 AM.

&&

SHORT TERM...THOMPSON/REL
LONG TERM...REL
AVIATION...BC