Tornado Warning 44, NWS Charleston, SC

000 
WWUS52 KCHS 090134
SVSCHS

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
934 PM EDT SUN OCT 8 2006

SCC013-090200-
/O.CON.KCHS.TO.W.0044.000000T0000Z-061009T0200Z/
BEAUFORT SC-
934 PM EDT SUN OCT 8 2006

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT FOR BEAUFORT
COUNTY...

AT 931 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR FRIPP ISLAND...OR 
ABOUT 11 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BEAUFORT...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...FOLLY
FIELD...FRIPP ISLAND...HILTON HEAD ISLAND AND PARRIS ISLAND.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
STURDY SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST
DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER ONLY...PLEASE CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN CHARLESTON TOLL FREE AT 1-888-383-2024 OR EMAIL YOUR
REPORTS TO CHS.SKYWARN@NOAA.GOV.

LAT...LON 3231 8040 3238 8053 3235 8080 3216 8075

$$

000 
WWUS52 KCHS 090144
SVSCHS

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
944 PM EDT SUN OCT 8 2006

SCC013-090200-
/O.CON.KCHS.TO.W.0044.000000T0000Z-061009T0200Z/
BEAUFORT SC-
944 PM EDT SUN OCT 8 2006

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT FOR BEAUFORT
COUNTY...

AT 942 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO.  THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR LONGWOOD...OR
ABOUT 9 MILES SOUTH OF BEAUFORT...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 20 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...PARIS 
ISLAND...HILTON HEAD ISLAND...PORT ROYAL SOUND...LONGWOOD.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER ONLY...PLEASE CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN CHARLESTON TOLL FREE AT 1-888-383-2024 OR EMAIL YOUR
REPORTS TO CHS.SKYWARN@NOAA.GOV.

LAT...LON 3227 8054 3235 8062 3233 8084 3216 8078

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
324 PM EDT SUN OCT 8 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/...AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED
A WEAK LOW EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A STRONG
MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

AFTER SOME ACTIVITY THIS MORNING JUST NORTH OF CHARLESTON...THE BULK
OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS STAYED NORTH OF CWFA.
HOWEVER A PIECE OF ENERGY APPEARS TO HAVE PUSHED OFF THE GEORGIA
COAST WHICH HAS INITIALIZED SOME NEW ACTIVITY EAST OF SAVANNAH.
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP NORTH AND SPREAD INTO THE CHARLESTON
TRI-COUNTY AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE GFS SHOWS MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND NEAR
CHARLESTON SO FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ADDITIONAL BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
ASHORE LATER TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE ON
MONDAY MORNING LEAVING SOME SHOWERS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST...WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT
AND MONDAY BUT NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED THERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY
MOVES OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE SURFACE LOW ALSO SLIDES
NORTHEAST OFF THE SC AND GA COAST. ALTHOUGH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS IN THE AREA ON TUESDAY...ONSHORE FLOW AND CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE COASTLINE WEAKENS. HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR TUESDAY OVER
LAND...WHILE MAINTAINING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AS LOW AND
MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS.

THE STRONG MID WEEK COLD FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO APPROACH THE
SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY ACCORDING TO THE 12Z GFS RUN. GFS CONTINUES
TO WAFFLE ON THE TIMING OF FROPA...SINCE THE 06Z RUN HAD FROPA
OCCURRING AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED CHANCE POPS FOR
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ALL DAY THURSDAY...WHICH COULD BE NARROWED
DOWN CLOSER TO THE EVENT.

THE AXIS OF THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE EAST COAST
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...USHERING IN PERHAPS THE COLDEST
AIRMASS OF THE YEAR SO FAR. 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND ZERO
WITHIN THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT. EXTENDED GUIDANCE
IS GIVING LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
40S NEAR THE COAST...WHILE COOP GUIDANCE IS SHOWING LOWS FALLING
INTO THE UPPER 30S FURTHER INLAND. HAVE REDUCED HIGH TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY INTO THE LOWER 70S.

A LARGE SWATH OF DRY AIR FILTERS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW. THE REGION REMAINS UNDER
THE FLATTENING TROUGH THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HAVE
MAINTAINED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER PERSISTING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW REMAINS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
EXPECT SOME 6 FOOTERS TO REACH INTO THE GEORGIA OUTER WATERS SO WILL
KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOING THERE. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW EXERCISE CAUTION CRITERIA. THE LOW WILL PULL AWAY ON
MONDAY WHICH WILL BEGIN A SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS.

WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH THE COASTAL LOW
LINGERING OFFSHORE OF NC. BY WEDNESDAY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOP
AS THE OFFSHORE LOW FILLS IN AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. 12Z GFS RUN IS INDICATING THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE COASTAL
WATERS BY LATE THURSDAY. FEEL THAT TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS
POINT...THUS WILL NOT SHOW QUITE THE INCREASE IN WESTERLY WINDS ON
THURSDAY THAT THE GFS INDICATES UNTIL THERE IS A LITTLE MORE
CONSISTENCY. COLD ADVECTION THAT INITIATES FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE ENOUGH MIXING OVER THE WARMER WATERS TO
INCREASE WINDS AND SEAS TO SCA CRITERIA IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND
SCEC CRITERIA NEARSHORE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT AT KCHS WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA. MAINLY QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KSAV.

&&

.COASTAL FLOODING...HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO NOT
MENTION SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING.

HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE PREDICTED AGAIN FOR MONDAY MORNING. THE
AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STRONG MID LEVEL LOW
AND THE WEAK SURFACE LOW. EXPECT WINDS TO BE NORTHEAST IN SOUTH
CAROLINA AROUND HIGH TIDE WHICH SHOULD ADD AN ONSHORE COMPONENT OVER
THE WATER. THIS COULD LEAD TO TIDE LEVELS BEING A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
THIS MORNING NEAR CHARLESTON AND BEAUFORT. THUS...EXPECT SOME HIGH
WATER IN COASTAL AREAS WHICH COULD CAUSE FLOODING AND SIGNIFICANT
BEACH EROSION. WILL ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR
CHARLESTON...COLLETON AND BEAUFORT COUNTIES FOR MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR SCZ048>050 FROM 6 AM TO 2 PM MON.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AMZ374.

&&

SCW/WMS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
430 PM EDT SUN OCT 8 2006

AMZ330-350-352-354-374-GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040-
042>045-047>051-091000-
CHARLESTON HARBOR-
WATERS FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SC OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM EDISTO BEACH SC TO SAVANNAH GA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA OUT
20 NM...INCLUDING GRAYS REEF NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-JENKINS-SCREVEN-CANDLER-BULLOCH-EFFINGHAM-TATTNALL-EVANS-
INLAND BRYAN-COASTAL BRYAN-INLAND CHATHAM-COASTAL CHATHAM-LONG-
INLAND LIBERTY-COASTAL LIBERTY-INLAND MCINTOSH-COASTAL MCINTOSH-
ALLENDALE-HAMPTON-INLAND COLLETON-DORCHESTER-BERKELEY-INLAND
JASPER-BEAUFORT-COASTAL COLLETON-CHARLESTON-COASTAL JASPER-
430 PM EDT SUN OCT 8 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTH
SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
.THUNDERSTORMS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR WATER SPOUT ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
.COASTAL FLOODING...VERY HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ON MONDAY WILL
COMBINE WITH NORTHEAST WINDS AND SOME SWELL WAVE TO RESULT IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG
THE GEORGIA COAST. HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING ACROSS
COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA...WHICH COULD FURTHER AGGRAVATE FLOODING. A
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTH
CAROLINA. REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE FOR DETAILS ON
THIS DEVELOPING COASTAL FLOOD EVENT.

.BEACH EROSION...A STIFF NORTHEAST WIND COMBINED WITH VERY HIGH
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR TO MODERATE
BEACH EROSION ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST AND MODERATE TO SEVERE EROSION
ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THE WORST EROSIVE EFFECTS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG NORTH AND EAST FACING BEACHES. REFER TO THE LATEST
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE FOR DETAILS.

.RIP CURRENTS...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON MONDAY
AND THE INCREASED RISK MAY LAST INTO TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
353 PM EDT SUN OCT 08 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 AM     HIGH ASTR TIDES  HUNTING ISLAND          32.38N 80.44W
10/08/2006                   BEAUFORT           SC   PUBLIC

            WATER COVERING PARKING LOT AT HUNTING ISLAND DURING THE
            MORNING HIGH TIDE.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
403 PM EDT SUN OCT 08 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 AM     HIGH ASTR TIDES  FOLLY BEACH             32.65N 79.94W
10/08/2006                   CHARLESTON         SC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WATER CAME UP TO THE DUNE LINE AT THE WASHOUT DURING THIS
            MORNINGS HIGH TIDE BUT DID NOT OVERFLOW ONTO ASHLEY AVE.
            MODERATE EROSION ALSO OCCURRING.

&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
807 PM EDT SUN OCT 8 2006

SCZ043>045-048>050-090800-
INLAND COLLETON-DORCHESTER-BERKELEY-BEAUFORT-COASTAL COLLETON-
CHARLESTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WALTERBORO...ST. GEORGE...SUMMERVILLE...
MONCKS CORNER...BEAUFORT...HILTON HEAD...EDISTO BEACH...
CHARLESTON
807 PM EDT SUN OCT 8 2006

...SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT...

NUMEROUS CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
MEANDERS OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AND A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL
STORM SYSTEM ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION.

AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHEAST...BANDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ROTATE INLAND ACROSS MUCH OF BEAUFORT...
COASTAL COLLETON AND CHARLESTON COUNTIES. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE
FOR A FEW OF THESE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE WITH THE MAIN HAZARDS
BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND TORNADOES. LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO
OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT WILL
BE FROM HUNTING ISLAND NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST TO MCCLELLANVILLE...
INCLUDING EDISTO BEACH...FOLLY BEACH...DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON...MOUNT
PLEASANT AND AWENDAW.

PEOPLE ACROSS SOUTH COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE LATEST WEATHER CONDITIONS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
ACTION SHOULD A WARNING BE ISSUED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...TV OR YOUR LOCAL NEWS SOURCE
FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. MAKE SURE YOUR NOAA
WEATHER RADIO REMAINS IN ALERT MODE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
818 PM EDT SUN OCT 8 2006

SCZ050-090045-
CHARLESTON-
818 PM EDT SUN OCT 8 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CHARLESTON COUNTY THROUGH 845 PM
EDT...

AT 818 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF STILES POINT...OR
ABOUT 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON...MOVING WEST AT 20 MPH.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...FOLLY
BEACH AND JAMES ISLAND THROUGH 845 PM EDT.

SMALL HAIL...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30 MPH.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
859 PM EDT SUN OCT 8 2006

SCZ050-090130-
CHARLESTON-
859 PM EDT SUN OCT 8 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CHARLESTON COUNTY THROUGH 930 PM
EDT...

AT 859 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LEGAREVILLE...OR
ABOUT 12 MILES SOUTH OF CHARLESTON...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...FOLLY
BEACH...KIAWAH ISLAND AND SEABROOK ISLAND THROUGH 930 PM EDT.

SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
CAN BE EXPECTED.