Severe Thunderstorm Warning 86, NWS Charleston, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
522 PM EDT SUN MAY 14 2006

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ENTIRE AREA THROUGH 10
PM...
...MORE SEVERE WX LIKELY TO MOVE IN FROM THE W THIS EVE...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THRU MON NIGHT/...CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN KEEPING
THE SVR WX SOMEWHAT IN CHECK SO FAR THIS AFTN...BUT SOME CLEARING
HAS WORKED ITS WAY INTO THE AREA FROM THE W. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR
ISOLATED SVR WX TO FORM...WHICH INTERACTED WITH THE SEA BREEZE AS IT
WENT THRU THE N CHS AREA. THAT SEA BREEZE IS NOW APPROACHING THE
I-95 CORRIDOR AS IT MOVES W AND WE WILL SEE IT INTERACT WITH OTHER
STORMS COMING IN FROM THE W DURING THIS EVE. HAIL...STRONG WINDS AND
AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A TORNADO CAN STILL BE EXPECTED AS WE SEE
INTERACTION OF E MOVING STORMS...THE W MOVING SEA BREEZE AND VARIOUS
OUTFLOWS.

THE FRONT WILL BE SLUGGISH IN MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...UNTIL PASSAGE
OF THE LOW AND MID LEVEL TROUGH MON NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL LIE NE-SW
ALONG THE E AND SE PART OF THE CWA BY LATE TONIGHT THRU EARLY MON
NIGHT. AS A RESULT WE WILL BE SLOW IN SEEING ANY CLEARING FROM THE
NW UNTIL LATER MON NIGHT AND TUE. THUS I HAVE MAINTAINED SCATTERED
TO LIKELY POPS TONIGHT...SCATTERED POPS MON AND MON EVE...THEN DOWN
TO SLIGHT CHANCE OR NO POPS THEREAFTER.

WITH THE CLOUD COVER...ELEVATED DEWPTS AND SWLY FLOW TONIGHT TEMPS
WILL HOLD NEAR OR ABOVE 60 IN MOST LOCATIONS...WARMING ONLY INTO THE
70S DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ON MON...THEN COOLING INTO THE
LOWER-MID 50S MON NIGHT.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...THE U/L LOW WILL FINALLY BEGIN
TO PULL INTO NEW ENGLAND ON TUE WITH SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THEREAFTER AS THE ASSCD UPPER TROUGH ALSO BEGINS TO MOVE OFF THE
COAST. TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN AOB NORMAL TUE/WED WITH UPPER TROUGH
STILL EXERTING IT/S INFLUENCE BUT RETURN TO AOA NEAR THE END OF THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK IN. OVERALL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FCST...ESPCLY CONSIDERING THE SHORT
TERM SEVERE WX CONCERNS.
&&

.MARINE...FRONT WILL BE SLOW IN CLEARING THE MARINE AREA UNTIL MON
NIGHT AS IT GETS BOGGED DOWN ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT/MON. THUS
WILL KEEP A GENERAL SW FLOW IN PLACE...UNTIL PASSAGE OF THE FRONT
AND WINDS SHIFTING TO W OR WNW MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE. PRES
GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN ENOUGH TONIGHT INTO MON TO ALLOW FOR SPEEDS UP
TO 15-20 KT...BUT WITH OFFSHORE FETCH WILL KEEP SEAS AT 5 FT OR
LESS. ONLY HEADLINES FOR BE SCSEC IN CHS HARBOR THIS EVE AS THERE IS
ENHANCEMENT OF THE SEA BREEZE WITH NEARBY CONVECTION AND PINCHED
GRADIENT.

RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRAD TO PERSIST OVER THE WATERS TUE AFTN THRU
FRI...RESULTING IN CONDITIONS REMAINING BELOW 15 KT. WINDS WILL
MAINLY BE OFFSHORE OUTSIDE OF THE AFTN SEA BREEZE...ESPCLY WED-FRI.
&&

.LAKE WINDS...STILL ENOUGH MIXING TO MAINTAIN THE LWA ACROSS LAKE
MOULTRIE. ACTUALLY EXTENDED THE LWA ANOTHER HOUR UNTIL 10 PM TO MESH
WITH EXPIRATION OF THE SVR TSTM WATCH.
&&

.AVIATION...WE COULD BE IN FOR SEVERAL HOURS OF WET WX AT BOTH CHS
AND SAV TONIGHT AS MOISTURE STREAMS ENE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS
IT STALLS ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...COVERAGE OF SHRA AND
TSRA WILL SCATTERED...THUS PREVAILING VSBYS AND CIGS TO REMAIN IN
THE VFR CATEGORY. STILL PLENTY OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH THE
FRONT IN THE AREA ON MON...AND LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONSIDER
POSSIBLE SHRA OR TSRA...ESP AT THE SAV TERMINAL MON AFTN.

OUTSIDE OF ANY HIGHER GUSTS IN CONVECTION...LIGHT TO MODERATE SW TO
W WINDS THRU THE FCST PERIOD.
&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR LAKE MOULTRIE SCZ045 UNTIL 10 PM.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

33/44

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
950 PM EDT SUN MAY 13 2006

AMZ330-350-352-354-374-GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040-
042>045-047>051-151000-
CHARLESTON HARBOR-
WATERS FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SC OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM EDISTO BEACH SC TO SAVANNAH GA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA OUT
20 NM...INCLUDING GRAYS REEF NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-JENKINS-SCREVEN-CANDLER-BULLOCH-EFFINGHAM-TATTNALL-EVANS-
INLAND BRYAN-COASTAL BRYAN-INLAND CHATHAM-COASTAL CHATHAM-LONG-
INLAND LIBERTY-COASTAL LIBERTY-INLAND MCINTOSH-COASTAL MCINTOSH-
ALLENDALE-HAMPTON-INLAND COLLETON-DORCHESTER-BERKELEY-INLAND
JASPER-BEAUFORT-COASTAL COLLETON-CHARLESTON-COASTAL JASPER-
950 PM EDT SUN MAY 13 2006

...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA UNTIL
MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTH
SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
.SEVERE WEATHER...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA EARLY TONIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO POSSIBLE
WARNINGS OR STATEMENTS FROM THIS OFFICE...AND TO THE LATEST DAY 1
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK ISSUED BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS STILL NEEDED...MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA EARLY TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
916 PM EDT SUN MAY 14 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0916 PM     HAIL             WEST ASHLEY             32.80N 80.01W
05/14/2006  E1.00 INCH       CHARLESTON         SC   NWS EMPLOYEE

            LARGE HAIL REPORTED BY OFF DUTY NWS EMPLOYEE.

&&

33

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
920 PM EDT SUN MAY 14 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0920 PM     HAIL             WEST ASHLEY             32.80N 80.01W
05/14/2006  E1.00 INCH       CHARLESTON         SC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGE HAIL REPORTED.

&&

33

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
921 PM EDT SUN MAY 14 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0921 PM     HAIL             WEST ASHLEY             32.80N 80.01W
05/14/2006  E0.88 INCH       CHARLESTON         SC   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

33

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
922 PM EDT SUN MAY 14 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0919 PM     HAIL             WEST ASHLEY             32.80N 80.01W
05/14/2006  M1.50 INCH       CHARLESTON         SC   NWS EMPLOYEE

            PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL 1/2 MILE S OF CITADEL MALL.

&&

24

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
925 PM EDT SUN MAY 14 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0920 PM     HAIL             2 SE RINCON             32.28N 81.21W
05/14/2006  E1.00 INCH       EFFINGHAM          GA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SCW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
926 PM EDT SUN MAY 14 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0921 PM     TORNADO          NORTH CHARLESTON        32.85N 79.97W
05/14/2006                   CHARLESTON         SC   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TORNADO REPORTED BY NORTH CHARLESTON FIRE DEPARTMENT VIA
            CHANNEL 5 TELEVISION STATION.

&&

33