Severe Thunderstorm Warning 6, NWS Charleston, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
323 PM EST MON JAN 2 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
DRY PUNCH BLASTING INTO SW GEORGIA THIS AFTN WITH DEEP MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE RIGHT ACROSS OUR CWFA AT THE PRESENT TIME. EVEN THOUGH
INITIAL CONVECTIVE LINES WERE REACHING THE COAST...NEW CELLS
ACROSS SW GEORGIA SUGGEST NOT LOWERING THE TORNADO WATCH JUST YET.
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL TELL AS POTENTIAL NEW ACTIVITY MOVES NE INTO
THE AREA ON NOSE OF THE DRY SLOT. INCREASING WIND FIELDS SUGGEST
ANY CELLULAR ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS OR STRONG
ROTATION.

SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM W TO E AOB MIDNIGHT WITH GUSTY
WEST WINDS FOR AT LEAST A WHILE WITH THE ENHANCED DRYING. STILL
LOOKING FOR SUNSHINE AND MID 60S TUE WITH CLEAR AND COOLER WEATHER
TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LAKE WINDS...
DRY PUNCH AND TIGHTENING GRADIENT LOOKS TOO IMPRESSIVE TO NOT
GO WITH A LWA ON LAKE MOULTRIE TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING. WE RAN
THE ADVISORY THROUGH 21Z TO ALLOW FOR A POSSIBLE EARLY CANCELLATION
ON TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR THE NEXT FROPA THU-FRI. HIGH PRES
WILL BUILD AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. DUE TO ACTIVE WEATHER WE MADE
VERY FEW CHANGES THIS PACKAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
SIMILAR REASONING AS THE LAKE WINDS FOR THE NEAR SHORE MARINE WATERS
TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN AND OFFSHORE JETTING DEVELOPS AND
STRENGTHENS. WE WILL HOIST/CONTINUE SCA FOR ALL WATERS TONIGHT AND
MAINTAIN TRENDS OF DECREASING WINDS AND SEAS ON TUE. NO BIG CHANGES
FOR THE LATTER PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...
WE WILL BE NEEDED SOME AMENDMENTS SHORTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR FOR TSTM
TIMING CURRENT RNFL. THERE SHOULD BE IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATER THIS
EVENING AS ACTIVITY PUSHES OFFSHORE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 8 PM.
SC...TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 8 PM.
     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR LAKE MOULTRIE SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AMZ330-350-352-354-374.

&&

24

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
210 PM EST MON JAN 2 2006

AMZ330-350-352-354-374-GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040-
042>045-047>051-031000-
CHARLESTON HARBOR-
WATERS FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SC OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM EDISTO BEACH SC TO SAVANNAH GA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA OUT
20 NM...INCLUDING GRAYS REEF NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-JENKINS-SCREVEN-CANDLER-BULLOCH-EFFINGHAM-TATTNALL-EVANS-
INLAND BRYAN-COASTAL BRYAN-INLAND CHATHAM-COASTAL CHATHAM-LONG-
INLAND LIBERTY-COASTAL LIBERTY-INLAND MCINTOSH-COASTAL MCINTOSH-
ALLENDALE-HAMPTON-INLAND COLLETON-DORCHESTER-BERKELEY-
INLAND JASPER-BEAUFORT-COASTAL COLLETON-CHARLESTON-COASTAL JASPER-
430 AM EST MON JAN 2 2006

...MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
.SEVERE WEATHER...SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTH COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA. BY
THIS AFTERNOON...THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT. THE STRONG INSTABILITY IS UNUSUAL FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. AS A RESULT...MOST OF GEORGIA AND MUCH OF
EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA HAS BEEN PUT UNDER A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER. THE MAIN HAZARDS EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS ARE LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. ADDITIONALLY...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST AREAS UNTIL 8 PM.

.FLOODING...WITH THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING...SOME AREAS MAY RECEIVE A COUPLE OF INCHES OF
RAIN. IF HEAVY RAIN MOVES ACROSS THE SAME AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...THOSE AREAS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE
FLOODING. ALSO...AREAS THAT RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THIS
MORNING MAY CAUSE THE SOIL TO BECOME SATURATED AND THEREFORE ALLOW
TREES TO BE BLOWN DOWN EASIER WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS...LAW ENFORCEMENT...SPOTTERS AND THE
MEDIA ARE REMINDED THAT THIS IS A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK ISSUED BY THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

.LAKE WINDS...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY FOR LAKE MOULTRIE IN BERKELEY COUNTY SOUTH CAROLINA. REFER
TO THE LATEST RECREATIONAL FORECAST FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
341 PM EST MON JAN 02 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0210 PM     HAIL             4 SE BEAUFORT           32.39N 80.62W
01/02/2006  0.88 INCH        BEAUFORT           SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
342 PM EST MON JAN 02 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0210 PM     HAIL             5 SW BEAUFORT           32.38N 80.73W
01/02/2006  0.88 INCH        BEAUFORT           SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
343 PM EST MON JAN 02 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0210 PM     HAIL             2 NE BEAUFORT           32.45N 80.65W
01/02/2006  0.88 INCH        BEAUFORT           SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
352 PM EST MON JAN 2 2006

GAZ114-115-022115-
EVANS-TATTNALL-
352 PM EST MON JAN 2 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT EVANS COUNTY AND TATTNALL COUNTY
THROUGH 415 PM EST...

AT 352 PM EST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 6 MILES WEST OF REIDSVILLE...MOVING EAST
AT 55 MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND
HUGHLAND...COLLINS...REIDSVILLE...MANASSAS...UNDINE...JENNIE...
DANIELS...BAY BRANCH...HAGAN AND BELLVILLE THROUGH 415 PM EST.

HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
424 PM EST MON JAN 02 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 42 ESE WILD DUNES       32.50N 79.10W
01/02/2006  43 MPH           AMZ370             XX   BUOY

            PEAK WIND OBSERVED AT BUOY 41004. TIME ESTIMATED BASED ON
            RADAR.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
436 PM EST MON JAN 02 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1232 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 N REIDSVILLE          32.13N 82.12W
01/02/2006                   TATTNALL           GA   NEWSPAPER

            ROOF OFF A HOUSE ON HIGHWAY 23.

1235 PM     TSTM WND DMG     COLLINS                 32.18N 82.11W
01/02/2006                   TATTNALL           GA   NEWSPAPER

            ROOF OFF A HOUSE ON HIGHWAY 292 AND ROOF OFF A HOUSE AND
            SHEDS DESTROYED ON LYNNTOWN ROAD.

&&

MTE