Severe Thunderstorm Warning 186, NWS Charleston, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
420 PM EDT FRI AUG 4 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...A HOT...HUMID AND
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT HAS SPAWNED NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CWA THIS AFTERNOON. RUC SHORT TERM FORECAST FIELDS SHOWS SEVERAL
WEAK VORT MAXES OVER CENTRAL NC AND SC...WHICH MAY BE ASSISTING THE
INITIATION AND MAINTENANCE OF THESE STORMS. LAPS ANALYSIS INDICATES
HIGH CAPE VALUES OVER SOUTHEAST GA AND SC...SO WOULD EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WILL ALLOW HEAT ADVISORY TO CONTINUE UNTIL 8PM TONIGHT. OBSERVATION
SITES THAT HAVE NOT YET SEEN RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...SUCH AS SAVANNAH...ARE STILL REPORTING HEAT INDICES ABOVE
105 DEGREES.

PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY...AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
FORECAST AREA. BOTH NAM AND GFS SHOW THE SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPPING
SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY MORNING...THEN STALLING OUT
APPROXIMATELY OVER THE SC/GA BORDER. WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE WEAK
FRONT...EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO BE ABLE
TO PERSIST TONIGHT. MORE EXTENSIVE AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT...INCREASING TO CHANCE POPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

HEAT INDICES UP TO 105 DEGREES ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 90S IN MOST
LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND DEWPOINTS LINGERING IN
THE MID 70S. WILL CHOOSE NOT TO ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR TOMORROW
AT THIS POINT...SINCE COVERAGE AND DURATION OF HIGHEST INDICES
APPEARS TO BE LESS ON SATURDAY THAN TODAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SFC AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
ACROSS THE SE CONUS SUN THROUGH TUE...BEFORE RETROGRADING WESTWARD
INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY WED THROUGH FRI. AT THE SURFACE...FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA SUN...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK. AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS LOWER BY MID WEEK...A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION WED AND STALL OUT OVER THE AREA ON
THU. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN GET RE-ESTABLISHED FOR FRI. AS FOR
SENSIBLE WEATHER...WILL CONTINUE LOW CHC/SLGT CHC POPS EACH DAY
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR TSRA IN THE KCHS TAF AS AN
INTENSE STORM PASSED OVER THE TERMINAL. THE TEMPO GROUP EXPIRES AT
21Z...AND IT LOOKS LIKE A VCTS WILL BE SUFFICIENT AT THIS POINT.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN POPPING UP IN THE VICINITY OF KSAV...BUT
NOTHING HAS FORMED OVER THE TERMINAL YET. WILL ALSO MAINTAIN VCTS AT
KSAV TO ACCOUNT FOR ONGOING CONVECTION NEARBY.

EXPECT CONVECTION TO DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS BEHIND THE SEABREEZE FRONT WILL ALSO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AT
BOTH TERMINALS.
&&

.MARINE...SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST GA AND SC
COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE SOUTH CAROLINA MARINE ZONES...STALLING
APPROXIMATELY OVER THE SC/GA LINE. THUS WINDS IN THE SC MARINE
ZONES WILL TURN BRIEFLY NORTHWESTERLY SATURDAY...BEFORE SEABREEZE
EFFECTS VEER THE WINDS AROUND TO SOUTHERLY. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL
BE AOB 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS AOB 3 FT.

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE RULE ACROSS THE WATERS
SUN THROUGH WED...WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOB 15 KT...WITH SEAS AOB 4 FT.
&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HEAT ADVISORY FOR GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141 UNTIL 8 PM
     TONIGHT.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FOR SCZ040-042>045-047>051 UNTIL 8 PM TONIGHT.
MARINE...NONE.
&&

79/JRJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
400 AM EDT FRI AUG 4 2006

AMZ330-350-352-354-374-GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040-
042>045-047>051-051000-
CHARLESTON HARBOR-
WATERS FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SC OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM EDISTO BEACH SC TO SAVANNAH GA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA OUT
20 NM...INCLUDING GRAYS REEF NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-JENKINS-SCREVEN-CANDLER-BULLOCH-EFFINGHAM-TATTNALL-EVANS-
INLAND BRYAN-COASTAL BRYAN-INLAND CHATHAM-COASTAL CHATHAM-LONG-
INLAND LIBERTY-COASTAL LIBERTY-INLAND MCINTOSH-COASTAL MCINTOSH-
ALLENDALE-HAMPTON-INLAND COLLETON-DORCHESTER-BERKELEY-
INLAND JASPER-BEAUFORT-COASTAL COLLETON-CHARLESTON-COASTAL
JASPER-
400 AM EDT FRI AUG 4 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTH
SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
.SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS
COULD BECOME SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH BEING
THE PRIMARY THREAT. REFER TO THE DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER FOR MORE INFORMATION.

.EXCESSIVE HEAT...HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL PRODUCE
HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM 105 TO 114 DEGREES TODAY. A HEAT ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FROM 11 AM UNTIL 8 PM EDT. REFER TO
THE LATEST NON-PRECIPITATION PRODUCT FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

JRL

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
429 PM EDT FRI AUG 4 2006

GAZ137-042100-
LONG-
429 PM EDT FRI AUG 4 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT LONG COUNTY THROUGH 500 PM EDT...

AT 429 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 3 MILES WEST OF LUDOWICI...MOVING
NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...DONALD AND
LUDOWICI THROUGH 500 PM EDT.

GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
434 PM EDT FRI AUG 4 2006

GAZ099-114-115-042115-
CANDLER-EVANS-TATTNALL-
434 PM EDT FRI AUG 4 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT EVANS COUNTY...TATTNALL COUNTY
AND CANDLER COUNTY THROUGH 515 PM EDT...

AT 434 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF EXCELSIOR...OR
ABOUT 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF METTER...MOVING WEST AT 5 MPH.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...THROUGH
515 PM EDT.

HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
436 PM EDT FRI AUG 4 2006

SCZ049-050-042100-
CHARLESTON-COASTAL COLLETON-
436 PM EDT FRI AUG 4 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CHARLESTON COUNTY AND COLLETON
COUNTY THROUGH 500 PM EDT...

AT 436 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
5 MILES WEST OF WIGGINS TO 2 MILES SOUTH OF ADAMS RUN...MOVING SOUTH
AT 15 MPH.

THIS CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND
AROUND...ADAMS RUN...FENWICK...WIGGINS AND BENNETTS POINT THROUGH
500 PM EDT.

HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
442 PM EDT FRI AUG 4 2006

GAZ118-119-042130-
COASTAL CHATHAM-INLAND CHATHAM-
442 PM EDT FRI AUG 4 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CHATHAM COUNTY THROUGH 530 PM
EDT...

AT 442 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED OVER LIBERTY CITY...OR ABOUT 3 MILES
WEST OF SAVANNAH...STATIONARY.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...
BURROUGHS...GARDEN CITY...SAVANNAH AND WHITE BLUFF THROUGH 530 PM
EDT.

GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED.