Severe Thunderstorm Warning 161, NWS Charleston, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1100 AM EDT FRI JUL 28 2006

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...MESOANALYSIS AT LOW AND MID LEVELS SHOWS RIDGE
AXIS ACROSS THE CWA...AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES WESTWARD OVER
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THUNDERSTORM CHECKLIST INDICATES AN AFTERNOON
ENVIRONMENT FULL OF INSTABILITY AND BUOYANCY POTENTIAL. LIFTED
INDICES FALL TO -8 ACCORDING TO THE MODIFIED MORNING SOUNDING...WITH
CAPE VALUES ABOVE 4000 J/KG. COMPARING THE MODIFIED CHS AND JAX
SOUNDINGS INDICATES THAT THERE WILL BE A STRONGER CAP OVER THE
GEORGIA ZONES...WHICH MAY INHIBIT OR DELAY WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN THOSE AREAS.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS ALREADY PREVALENT ALONG THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COASTLINE FROM AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE OFFSHORE. WOULD
EXPECT CHARLESTON...BERKELEY AND DORCHESTER COUNTIES TO BE THE FIRST
IN THE CWA TO SEE POP UP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. EARLY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM INITIATION POSSIBLE...ONCE
THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IN THE LOWER 90S IS REACHED. FIRST
CONVECTION OF THE DAY WILL BE ALONG THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY AND ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY DUE TO THE HIGH LEVELS OF
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. STORMS WILL BE SLOWING MOVING IN NATURE
DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW...SO FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS MAY
BE A PROBLEM THIS AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR THE
ENTIRE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONTINUING
THROUGH THE EVENING.

HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE OTHER MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE
DAY. MANY AREAS ARE ALREADY REPORTING HEAT INDICES ABOVE 100 DEGREES
THIS MORNING. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S...WITH
INLAND GEORGIA ZONES APPROACHING 100 DEGREES. WILL KEEP HEAT
ADVISORY GOING FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK...SO NO UPDATES TO NECESSARY THIS MORNING.
&&

.MARINE...CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AT MARINE SITES INDICATE WINDS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 15 KT. CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS A LITTLE
LOW WITH WIND SPEEDS...AS RUC AND NAM MODELS ALSO AGREE THAT WINDS
WILL REACH 15 KT BY THE AFTERNOON. WILL BUMP UP THE WINDS TO BETTER
REPRESENT CURRENT AND EXPECTED CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS TODAY...MAINTAINING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY AND TONIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED CU WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
COASTLINE THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE BY
EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE DEVELOPING SEABREEZE BOUNDARY...AND
CONTINUING AFTER BOUNDARY PASSAGE WITHIN THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR.
WILL LEAVE MENTION OF CB IN TAFS...WITH THE INTENTION OF UPDATING AS
CONVECTION DEVELOPS TO BETTER PIN DOWN THE TIMING OF CONVECTION.
SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BACK TO THE SOUTH AS A RESULT OF
SEABREEZE CIRCULATION.
&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HEAT ADVISORY GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY SCZ040-042>045-047>051.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

79

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
230 AM EDT FRI JUL 28 2006

AMZ330-350-352-354-374-GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040-
042>045-047>051-291000-
CHARLESTON HARBOR-
WATERS FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SC OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM EDISTO BEACH SC TO SAVANNAH GA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA OUT
20 NM...INCLUDING GRAYS REEF NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-JENKINS-SCREVEN-CANDLER-BULLOCH-EFFINGHAM-TATTNALL-EVANS-
INLAND BRYAN-COASTAL BRYAN-INLAND CHATHAM-COASTAL CHATHAM-LONG-
INLAND LIBERTY-COASTAL LIBERTY-INLAND MCINTOSH-COASTAL MCINTOSH-
ALLENDALE-HAMPTON-INLAND COLLETON-DORCHESTER-BERKELEY-
INLAND JASPER-BEAUFORT-COASTAL COLLETON-CHARLESTON-COASTAL
JASPER-
230 AM EDT FRI JUL 28 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTH
SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
.EXCESSIVE HEAT...HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM 95 TO 100 AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST COMBINED WITH HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT WILL LEAD TO
HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 105 AND 110 THIS AFTERNOON. REFER TO THE LATEST
NON-PRECIPITATION STATEMENT FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

.STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AFFECT A FEW SPOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
245 PM EDT FRI JUL 28 2006

SCZ045-281915-
BERKELEY-
245 PM EDT FRI JUL 28 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT BERKELEY COUNTY THROUGH 315 PM
EDT...

AT 245 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 3 MILES SOUTH OF STONY LANDING...OR
ABOUT 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MONCKS CORNER...DRIFTING NORTHEAST AT 5
MPH.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...MONCKS
CORNER...OLD CORDESVILLE AND CORDESVILLE THROUGH 315 PM EDT.

EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
258 PM EDT FRI JUL 28 2006

SCZ045-281930-
BERKELEY-
258 PM EDT FRI JUL 28 2006

...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ON THE SOUTHERN SHORES OF LAKE
MOULTRIE...
...MARINERS SEEK SAFE HARBOR...

AT 258 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SEVERAL THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORES OF LAKE
MOULTRIE...ROUGHLY FROM CHICORA TO BONNEAU...INCLUDING PINOPOLIS.
THESE STORMS ARE NEARLY STATIONARY. MARINERS AND SWIMMERS IN LAKE
MOULTRIE SHOULD SEEK SAFE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

THUNDERSTORMS POSE A VARIETY OF THREATS TO BOATERS ON LAKE MOULTRIE.
YOUR BEST COURSE OF ACTION DURING A THUNDERSTORM IS TO SEEK SAFE
HARBOR. IF YOU ARE CAUGHT ON THE OPEN LAKE WATERS...STAY BELOW
DECK...AND IF POSSIBLE...AWAY FROM METAL OBJECTS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
311 PM EDT FRI JUL 28 2006

SCZ043-044-281945-
DORCHESTER-INLAND COLLETON-
311 PM EDT FRI JUL 28 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT DORCHESTER COUNTY AND COLLETON
COUNTY THROUGH 345 PM EDT...

AT 311 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 4 MILES EAST OF COTTAGEVILLE...OR ABOUT
14 MILES EAST OF WALTERBORO. THE STORM IS NEARLY STATIONARY.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND
AROUND...COTTAGEVILLE...NORMAN LANDING...GETTYSVILLE
THROUGH 345 PM EDT.

SMALL HAIL...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED.