Severe Thunderstorm Warning 150, NWS Charleston, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
255 PM EDT SAT JUL 15 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT/...UPR LVL TROF AXIS OVR THE
ERN CONUS...AND ON THE BACKSIDE OF A BROAD UPR RIDGE CENTERED OVR
THE CENTRAL CONUS...WILL SLOWLY PUSH TWD THE COASTLINE THIS EVE
THEN OFFSHORE OVRNGT. THIS WILL THEN HELP USHER A SFC LOW PRES TROF
OVR THE APPALACHIANS TWD THE COAST. AS THIS UPR/LWR LVL COMBO MOVES
EWD...IT STILL LOOKS TO INTERACT WITH PLENTY OF WARM/MOIST UNSTABLE
AIR OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN. NOW THAT THE LARGE BKN/OVC
CLOUD DECK THAT LAID ACRS THE NRN HALF OF THE CWFA IS THINNING
OUT...CONVECTION IS STARTING TO BREAK OUT OVR WRN SC/ERN GA. IN THE
NEXT FEW HRS...THESE SHWRS/TSTMS LOOK TO SLOWLY SPREAD EWD INTO THE
CWFA. WITH COVERAGE ONLY EXPECTED TO INCRS THRU THE REST OF THE AFTN
INTO THE EVE HAVE INCRD ALL AREAS TO CHC THIS EVE...TRENDING FROM
50S N TO 30S S...THEN DROPPING DOWN TO SLGT CHC EVERYWHERE OVRNGT.
STILL AN OUTSIDE SHOT AT SEVERE TSTMS FOR THE NRN HALF OF THE CWFA
WITH DAMAGING WINDS...ESP IF BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS OCCUR TO ENHANCE
LIFTING MECHANISM...SO WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF SUCH IN GRIDS AND
TEXT PRODUCTS.

WITH UPR LVL SHTWV FCST TO SHIFT OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK TMRW...MAIN
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TMRW AFTN AND TMRW EVE RETURNS TO DIURNAL
SEABREEZE AND BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS AS UPR LVL RIDGING STARTS TO
MAKE INROADS TO THE SE CONUS ALONG WITH SFC HIGH PRES. WARM/MOIST
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL STILL BE IN PLACE BUT THE DYNAMICS WILL BE
LACKING SO WILL DROP POPS BACK TO THE 20/30 SCHEME.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE...WITH MIN TEMPS ONLY DROPPING TO
THE UPR 70S TNGT THEN RISING BACK UP TO THE MID 90S TMRW. HEAT
INDICES BETWEEN 100-105 WILL AGAIN BE A CONCERN SO WILL MAINTAIN
HEADLINE IN THE ZFP.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...DEEP UPPER RIDGE WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD...PRODUCING VERY WARM H85
TEMPS OF +17 TO +20C. THIS SHOULD YIELD HIGH TEMPS IN THE 90S EACH
DAY. BERMUDA HIGH PRES AT THE SFC WILL KEEP A GULF MOISTURE TAP INTO
THE REGION...THUS HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE. THE GFS
DOES NOT INDICATE MUCH OF ANY SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE
ERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AXIS DURING THE PERIOD. THUS ONLY SLIGHT
CHC POPS WERE CARRIED...MAINLY FOR AIRMASS SHOWERS AND STORMS...WITH
SOME AID FROM THE SEABREEZE.
&&

.MARINE...PINCHED GRAD EVIDENT OVR THE WATERS WITH MOST AREA BUOYS
REPORTING 15-20 KT WINDS AND UNTIL THE SFC TROF PUSHES OFFSHORE...
WINDS OVR THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE LAX TO SHUT DOWN SO WILL RUN
WITH THOSE SPEEDS OVRNGT. CLOSER TO SHORE...FBIS1 AND KCHL HAVE BEEN
REPORTING WINDS CLOSER TO 15 KT SO WILL INITIALIZE WITH 15 KT FOR
CHAS HARBOR BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT TO SEE IF A SHORT-LIVED SCEC
WOULD BE NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED
SINCE FETCH WILL BE SHIFTING MORE DEFINITIVELY OFFSHORE AND ALLOW
SEAS TO SUBSIDE FROM 5 FT. ALTHOUGH WILL INITIALIZE THE OUTER GA
WATERS WITH 5 FT...WILL OPEN THE RANGE TO 3-5 FT AND NOT NEED A
HEADLINE THEN WILL SUBSIDE SEAS FURTHER LATE TNGT. CONDS WILL CONT
TO IMPROVE TMRW INTO TMRW NGT AS SFC BNDRY SLOWLY SINKS SWD ACRS THE
WATERS AND SHIFTS WINDS TO NLY BUT LACK OF DECENT GRAD WILL KEEP
SPEEDS CAPPED AT 15 KT TMRW THRU TMRW NGT.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY S OF THE WATERS ON MON WILL PUSH FARTHER S DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS THE BERMUDA RIDGE REESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE
WRN ATLC. TUE THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS WILL MAINLY BE FROM THE
SW/S/SE AOB 15 KTS WITH SEAS AOB 3 FT.
&&

.AVIATION...KCLX RADAR SHOWING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
TO THE WEST OF OUR CWFA OUT AHEAD OF A WEAK BOUNDARY. HAVE VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NOT CONFIDENT ON THE TIMING
OF THE SHOWERS REACHING BOTH CHS AND SAV THIS AFTERNOON...SO HAVE
LEFT OUT OF TAF AND WILL MONITOR AND AMEND IF/WHEN NECESSARY.
&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&

JPC/JRL/REV

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1105 AM EDT SAT JUL 15 2006

AMZ330-350-352-354-374-GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040-
042>045-047>051-161000-
CHARLESTON HARBOR-
WATERS FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SC OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM EDISTO BEACH SC TO SAVANNAH GA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA OUT
20 NM...INCLUDING GRAYS REEF NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-JENKINS-SCREVEN-CANDLER-BULLOCH-EFFINGHAM-TATTNALL-EVANS-
INLAND BRYAN-COASTAL BRYAN-INLAND CHATHAM-COASTAL CHATHAM-LONG-
INLAND LIBERTY-COASTAL LIBERTY-INLAND MCINTOSH-COASTAL MCINTOSH-
ALLENDALE-HAMPTON-INLAND COLLETON-DORCHESTER-BERKELEY-
INLAND JASPER-BEAUFORT-COASTAL COLLETON-CHARLESTON-COASTAL
JASPER-
1105 AM EDT SAT JUL 15 2006

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA AND PART OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTH
SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
.RIP CURRENTS...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA
BEACHES TODAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST SURF ZONE FORECAST
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

.STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE STRONG WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH...WITH LARGE HAIL A SECONDARY HAZARD. PLEASE SEE
THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FROM THIS OFFICE AND THE DAY 1 CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

.EXCESSIVE HEAT...TEMPERATURES MAXING OUT IN THE MID 90S WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WILL CREATE HEAT INDICES IN THE 100
TO 105 DEGREE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO USE EXTRA
CAUTION IF UNDERGOING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES TO PREVENT AGAINST HEAT
RELATED ILLNESSES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
.STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE THE
MAIN HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS.

.EXCESSIVE HEAT...TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE MID 90S
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AND DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THIS WILL CREATE HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100 TO
105...AND MAY EXCEED 105 DEGREES FOR PART OF THAT TIME. SHOULD THAT
BE THE CASE...HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. EVEN IF NOT
FORMALLY REQUIRED...SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WINDS OR DAMAGE SHOULD THEY OCCUR. IN ADDITION... RIP
CURRENT REPORTS ARE ALWAYS WELCOME AND REQUESTED.

JPC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
426 PM EDT SAT JUL 15 2006

GAZ101-SCZ042-047-152100-
EFFINGHAM-HAMPTON-INLAND JASPER-
426 PM EDT SAT JUL 15 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT EFFINGHAM COUNTY...HAMPTON COUNTY
AND JASPER COUNTY THROUGH 500 PM EDT...

AT 426 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SHIRLEY...OR ABOUT
18 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SYLVANIA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...GARNETT...
ROBERTVILLE...SCOTIA...SHIRLEY...CLYO AND PINELAND THROUGH 500 PM
EDT.

GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
528 PM EDT SAT JUL 15 2006

SCZ045-152300-
BERKELEY-
528 PM EDT SAT JUL 15 2006

...THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT LAKE MOULTRIE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

AT 528 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 30 MILES WEST AND NORTHWEST
OF LAKE MOULTRIE...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
BERKELEY COUNTY AND AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND LAKE MOULTRIE BY 630
PM.  GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH DANGEROUS
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

THUNDERSTORMS POSE A VARIETY OF THREATS TO BOATERS ON LAKE MOULTRIE.
YOUR BEST COURSE OF ACTION DURING A THUNDERSTORM IS TO SEEK SAFE
HARBOR. IF YOU ARE CAUGHT ON THE OPEN LAKE WATERS...STAY BELOW
DECK...AND IF POSSIBLE...AWAY FROM METAL OBJECTS.

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