Severe Thunderstorm Warning 125, NWS Charleston, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
940 PM EDT SUN JUN 4 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...CDFNT MAKING PROGRESS ACRS WRN NC AND INTO
THE SC UPSTATE...BEING USHERED ALONG BY A TIGHT UPR LVL TROF THAT
WILL BECOME CUTOFF LATE TNGT THRU TMRW JUST NW OF THE CWFA. AHEAD OF
THIS FNT...SFC CONVERGENCE IS EVIDENT BETWEEN THE EVER ONGOING
SEABREEZE AND SWLY SFC FLOW FM SRN GA...AND UNSTABLE AIR IS ALSO
MAINTAINING ITS PRESENCE. THIS COMBINATION HAS ALLOWED A FEW STRONG
TSTMS...INCLUDING ONE SEVERE TSTM...TO DEVELOP IN SCATTERED FASHION
ACRS THE CWFA. INCRG MOISTURE ALONG WITH THE LIFT OF THE APCHG CDFNT
WILL KEEP THE CHC FOR SHWRS/TSTMS GOING OVRNGT. WRF LOOKS TO HAVE
THE BEST HANDLE ON THE SITUATION AND TIMES THE THICKER CLOUD COVER
THRU THE CWFA AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND CLOSE TO 12Z. GIVEN CURRENT
PROGRESS...IT APPEARS THAT ANY PRECIP COULD OCCUR BEFORE DAYBREAK.
HAVE TWEAKED GRIDS TO SHOW SLGT/LOW CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS ALL NIGHT AND
WILL MAKE MINOR WORDING CHANGES FOR THE OVRNGT PERIOD IN THE TEXT
FCST. TEMPS THUS FAR LOOK ON TRACK TO MEET FCST MIN TEMPS AND WIND
FCST LOOKS GOOD.
&&

.MARINE...ONLY MINOR COSMETIC TWEAKS NEEDED FOR THE WELL HANDLED
ONGOING CWF. APCHG CDFNT IS HELPING VEER WINDS FROM SE AND S TO SW
AS DEPICTED IN RECENT BUOY REPORTS. GIVEN SLIGHTLY TIGHTENED PRES
GRAD OVR THE WATERS...WILL PUT ALL MARINE ZONES AT 10-15 KT OVRNGT.
WAVE HEIGHTS ARE IN CHECK GIVEN RECENT BUOY/TOWER OBS AND NO
SIGNIFICANT FORCING IS XPCTD TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO CURRENT FCST.
&&

.AVIATION...MAIN QUESTION FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD OF THE 05/00Z
TAFS IS CONVECTION TIMING. SHWRS/TSTMS WRAPPING ARND THE SRN EDGE OF
THE UPR LVL TROF MAKING THEIR WAY THRU WRN NC AND THE SC UPSTATE.
BEST TIMING HAS THE LEADING EDGE OF THICKER CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY
TSTMS...MAKING IT TWD THE SC/GA COAST BY 05Z-06Z TNGT. HOWEVER...
WITH KCHS IN A BETTER POSITION TO SEE CONVECTION GIVEN GREATER
INSTABILITY HAVE ONLY INCLUDED TSTM MENTION FOR KCHS IN THE FORM OF
TEMPO GROUPS. FOR KSAV...ONLY USED CB BUT THE POSSIBILITY IS THERE
FOR TSTM INCLUSION IN LATER ISSUANCES. ONCE THE SHTWV PUSHES THRU...
THEN FOG BECOMES A PLAYER WITH LGT/CALM SFC WINDS AND SFC MOISTURE
POOLING. ANTICIPATING PRECIP AT KCHS...MVFR VSBYS WERE INCLUDED BUT
WERE OMITTED FROM KSAV WITH PRECIP NOT XPCTD. WINDS THEN PICK UP A
BIT GOING INTO TMRW AFTN THEN INCLUDED CB/S FOR THE LATE AFTN PERIOD
TMRW AS ANOTHER SHTWV PRODUCING LIFT WITHIN DEEP MOISTURE IS XPCTD.
&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

JPC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
425 AM EDT SUN JUN 4 2006

AMZ330-350-352-354-374-GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040-
042>045-047>051-051030-
CHARLESTON HARBOR-
WATERS FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SC OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM EDISTO BEACH SC TO SAVANNAH GA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA OUT
20 NM...INCLUDING GRAYS REEF NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-JENKINS-SCREVEN-CANDLER-BULLOCH-EFFINGHAM-TATTNALL-EVANS-
INLAND BRYAN-COASTAL BRYAN-INLAND CHATHAM-COASTAL CHATHAM-LONG-
INLAND LIBERTY-COASTAL LIBERTY-INLAND MCINTOSH-COASTAL MCINTOSH-
ALLENDALE-HAMPTON-INLAND COLLETON-DORCHESTER-BERKELEY-
INLAND JASPER-BEAUFORT-COASTAL COLLETON-CHARLESTON-COASTAL
JASPER-
425 AM EDT SUN JUN 4 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTH
SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
.STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA DURING
TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS...LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL ARE THE MAIN WEATHER
HAZARDS. PLEASE REFER TO THE DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK ISSUED BY THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
.STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SMALL HAIL IS THE MAIN WEATHER HAZARD. PLEASE REFER TO THE DAY 2
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK ISSUED BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED DURING TONIGHT.

33

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1020 PM EDT SUN JUN 4 2006

SCZ045-050-050315-
BERKELEY-CHARLESTON-
1020 PM EDT SUN JUN 4 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT BERKELEY COUNTY AND CHARLESTON
COUNTY THROUGH 1115 PM EDT...

AT 1020 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 2 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
LADSON...OR ABOUT 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SUMMERVILLE...MOVING EAST AT
20 MPH.

THIS CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND
AROUND...CAINHOY...COLLEGE PARK...GOOSE CREEK...HANAHAN...LADSON...
SANGAREE AND WANDO THROUGH 1115 PM EDT.

HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1023 PM EDT SUN JUN 4 2006

GAZ100-050315-
BULLOCH-
1023 PM EDT SUN JUN 4 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHWEST BULLOCH COUNTY THROUGH
1115 PM EDT...

AT 1023 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF NEVILS...OR ABOUT
11 MILES NORTHEAST OF CLAXTON...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...
BROOKLET...DENMARK...NEVILS AND REGISTER THROUGH 1115 PM EDT.

HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1028 PM EDT SUN JUN 4 2006

GAZ137-050315-
LONG-
1028 PM EDT SUN JUN 4 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT LONG COUNTY THROUGH 1115 PM
EDT...

AT 1028 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 4 MILES SOUTH OF WEFANIE...OR ABOUT 5
MILES WEST OF LUDOWICI...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...
WEFANIE...AIMAR AND LUDOWICI THROUGH 1115 PM EDT.

HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED.