Severe Thunderstorm Warning 100, NWS Charleston, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
330 PM EDT MON MAY 22 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...UPSTREAM CONVECTION
BEGINNING TO INITIATE AS A LARGE CU FIELD DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF GEORGIA. INSTABILITY OVER SOUTHEAST GA AND SC CONTINUES TO
LOOK SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. 18Z MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS LI VALUES DOWN TO -3
WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE CWA...AS WELL AS GOOD SURFACE
WIND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COASTLINE. FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS STALLED
OVER THE CWA. THE LINGERING BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH THE
SEABREEZE...SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO ENHANCE ANY CONVECTION
THAT SLIPS INTO THE CWA.

LATEST RUC RUN SHOWS LIFTED INDICES AND CAPE MAXIMIZING BETWEEN 21Z
AND 00Z OVER THE SC ZONES...ESPECIALLY COLLETON...DORCHESTER AND
BERKELEY COUNTIES. THIS TIMING COINCIDES WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
SHORTWAVE FROM THE WEST...WHICH SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAP INTO THE
INSTABILITY AND BOUNDARY FORCING. AS WITH PREVIOUS DAYS...CONVECTION
SHOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY TO AREAS NORTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER.
SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA HAVE REMAINED HOT AND DRY AND SO SHOULD
NOT BE A FOCUS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA DURING THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE MAIN VORT MAX PASSES
OFFSHORE.

LATEST PNAM AND GFS SHOWS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING AROUND THE
SC/GA BORDER UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE FINALLY MOVING SOUTH
TOWARD THE FL/GA BORDER BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SEABREEZE CONVERGENCE
WITH THE LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER INLAND AREAS IS CLEARLY
EVIDENT IN BOTH PNAM AND GFS MODEL WIND FIELDS. GFS SHOWS A LARGE
SWATH OF PRECIP IN SOUTHEAST SC ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCREASED
FORCING...WHILE PNAM SHOWS PRECIP FOCUSED MORE IN SOUTHEAST GA. WILL
JUST CONTINUE WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER BOTH SC AND GA AREAS
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY
TO ACCOUNT FOR POP UP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH...MAX TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL
BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAYS...RANGING FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 80S.
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...UPPER RIDGING BUILDING INTO
THE AREA WED SHUD BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT LEAVING THE FCST DRY ATTM.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON THU BUT HESITANT TO REMOVE THE SLGT CHC POPS
WE HAD GOING THIS FAR OUT. UPPER RIDGING GETS REPLACED BY TROUGHING
ON FRI/SAT. THE GFS SHOWS THE TROUGH CLOSING OFF INTO A LOW AND
MOVING SWD ALONG THE SE COAST WITH A COASTAL TROUGH FORMING AT THE
SFC...WHICH THEN MIGRATES TWD THE COAST MON. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN
LOW END CHC POPS FRI/SAT. SLGT CHC POPS SHUD DO FOR SUN/MON UNTIL
THE PATTERN BECOMES A BIT MORE CLEAR.

TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN AOA CLIMO THRU THE PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS STALLED APPROXIMATELY AT THE
BORDER BETWEEN THE SC AND GA MARINE ZONES. BUOY 4...AS WELL AS FOLLY
BEACH AND EDISTO BEACH...ARE REPORTING E TO NE WINDS. BUOY 8 AND THE
OFFSHORE GA TOWERS...ARE MAINLY REPORTING S WINDS. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL DESCEND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT LIGHT E TO SE WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM UNDER
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT.

WEAK PRES GRAD OVER THE MARINE AREA WILL PROVIDE BENIGN CONDITIONS
FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. GRAD MAY TIGHTEN A BIT TOWARD THE WEEKEND AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES...BUT CONDITIONS ATTM LOOK TO REMAIN AOB SCA
LEVELS.
&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED CU WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS CONVECTION INITIATES TO THE
WEST. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO THE SOUTH. KSAV WILL SEE MORE VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT...BEFORE
THE BOUNDARY DESCENDS SOUTH OF THE TAF SITE TUESDAY AND WINDS BECOME
NORTHEASTERLY.
&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

79/RJB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
430 AM EDT MON MAY 22 2006

AMZ330-350-352-354-374-GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040-
042>045-047>051-231000-
CHARLESTON HARBOR-
WATERS FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SC OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM EDISTO BEACH SC TO SAVANNAH GA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA OUT
20 NM...INCLUDING GRAYS REEF NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-JENKINS-SCREVEN-CANDLER-BULLOCH-EFFINGHAM-TATTNALL-EVANS-
INLAND BRYAN-COASTAL BRYAN-INLAND CHATHAM-COASTAL CHATHAM-LONG-
INLAND LIBERTY-COASTAL LIBERTY-INLAND MCINTOSH-COASTAL MCINTOSH-
ALLENDALE-HAMPTON-INLAND COLLETON-DORCHESTER-BERKELEY-
INLAND JASPER-BEAUFORT-COASTAL COLLETON-CHARLESTON-COASTAL JASPER-
430 AM EDT MON MAY 22 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTH
SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
.SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 16 IN GEORGIA...INCLUDING ALL OF SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY BE POSSIBLE. REFER TO THE DAY
ONE OUTLOOK ISSUED BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER AND THE LOCAL
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA.

24

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
611 PM EDT MON MAY 22 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0608 PM     HAIL             2 NE WALTERBORO         32.93N 80.64W
05/22/2006  E1.75 INCH       COLLETON           SC   PUBLIC

            GOLFBALL HAIL NEAR THUNDERBOLT DRIVE NEAR THE WALTERBORO
            AIRPORT

&&

PAY

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