High Surf Advisory 3, NWS Charleston, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1007 AM EDT FRI OCT 27 2006

.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE IS FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED IN THE FAVORED REGION EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS IN
CENTRAL AND EASTERN SC AND NC. EVAPORATIONAL COOLING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE INITIAL LIGHT RAINFALL HAS INCREASED LLVL STABILITY OF
THE AIRMASS AND WILL MAKE MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT DIFFICULT
TODAY. SWLY WINDS IN THE LOWEST 500 MB OF THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUE
TO INCREASE...WITH 12Z RAOBS SHOWING 25-35 KT AT 850 MB. WRF HAS
BEEN HANDLING THIS SYSTEM WELL AND SHOWS MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS
THE 300K THETA SFC INCREASING TO AROUND 45 KTS BY 18Z TODAY.
EXTREME SOUTHEAST GEORGIA EXPECTED TO SEE THE LEAST RAINFALL TODAY
SINCE THE WEDGE BOUNDARY IS DRAPED ACROSS THAT AREA ATTM. NEARLY
CONTINUOUS STRATIFORM PRECIP EXPECTED ELSEWHERE...BUT WITH AN
EVENTUAL NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE PRECIP SHIELD AS THE WARM
FRONT DRIFTS NORTH. HAVE INCREASED POPS IN THE LOCATIONS N OF THE
WARM FRONT TO 100 PCNT AND KEPT A SHARP GRADIENT TO CHC POPS OVER
FAR SRN PORTION. CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN THICK MOST AREAS...BUT SHOW
A FEW POSSIBLE BREAKS ACROSS SRN PORTION WHEN THE BOUNDARY DRIFTS
N AND DEEPER MIXING ERODES SOME OF THE CLOUDS.

HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM LOWER 60S FAR N PORTION TO UPPER 70S
FAR SW PORTION. THE IN-BETWEEN AREAS ARE THE TOUGHEST TO FORECAST
SINCE A SMALL VARIATION IN THE WARM FRONTAL POSITION CAN MAKE ALL
THE DIFFERENCE. UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS FORTHCOMING.
&&

.AVIATION...STRATIFORM RAIN WILL BE THE STORY FOR CHS TODAY. AS
THE WEDGE HAS STRENGTHENED AND SFC TEMPS WARMED A BIT...CIGS HAVE
LIFTED TO VFR...HOWEVER SFC VSBYS WILL LIKELY REMAIN MVFR FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY WITH PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE AND HIGH BL STABILITY.
PRECIP SHOULD TRANSITION TO MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE THIS EVENING AS
THE WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH. HEAVIER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL
BECOME POSSIBLE. LOWER CIGS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THIS EVE...
INITIALLY WITH CONVECTIVE SHOWERS BUT LATER A MORE PREVAILING
STRATUS DECK IS POSSIBLE AFTER SUNSET. THE NEXT MAJOR ISSUE IS
WINDS. SCREAMING LLJ WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS EVE...WITH 850 MB
WINDS OF 65 KTS POSSIBLE BY MIDNIGHT. WE EXPECT A BAND OF
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATER
THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH LIGHTNING WILL BE SCARCE DUE TO LIMITED
INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL LAPSE RATES...THESE CONVECTIVE CELLS WILL
BE QUITE CAPABLE OF MIXING STRONG LLJ WINDS TO THE SFC. THUS HAVE
SOME PRETTY SIGNIFICANT GUSTS IN TAFS FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD. LLWS
MAY NEED TO BE ADDED AT A LATER TIME...BUT AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS
MARGINAL GIVEN THE VERY STRONG SFC WINDS EXPECTED.

CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE A BIT BETTER AT SAV TODAY DUE TO THE BEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT BEING N OF THE TERM. HAVE SOME RAIN THIS MORNING
BUT PRECIP LIFTING N BY AFTERNOON. CURRENT TAFS SHOW SOME MVFR CIGS
COMING IN AROUND NOON...BUT THIS MAY BE ADJUSTED IN A FEW HRS IF
THE FRONT SHIFTS FARTHER N. WINDS ARE THE BIG ISSUE TONIGHT IN SAV
AS WELL. SEE PREVIOUS PARAGRAPH.
&&

.MARINE...FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FOUND ACROSS THE NEAR COAST OF THE
CWFA THIS MORNING...WITH WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRES ALONG THE FRONT. ONE
WAVE IS JUST OFF TYBEE ISLAND WITH A SECOND JUST OFF CHARLESTON.
WARM FRONT WILL BE SLOW IN LIFTING N AND NW TODAY...BUT WILL ALLOW
FOR ALL WINDS TO VEER TO SE AND S THRU THE AFTN. WIND SPEEDS WILL
STEADILY INCREASE THRU THE DAY AS LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF
DEEPENING LOW PRES MOVING THRU THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE
TN VALLEY BY 00Z.

ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE SEVERAL MORE HOURS UNTIL WE START SEEING SCA
CRITERIA...ESP IN THE CHS HARBOR...WILL GO AHEAD AND RAISE SCA FOR
ALL WATERS WITH THE MORNING FCST RATHER THAN THE 18Z START TIME.
THIS WILL GIVE MARINERS A BIGGER HEADS UP AND THEN WILL TRANSITION
TO GALE WARNING /EXCEPT FOR THE CHS HARBOR/ FOR TONIGHT WITH THE
AFTN ISSUANCE.

WILL LOWER PRECIP CHANCES SLIGHTLY OVER GA WATERS TO HIGH END
SCATTERED THIS AFTN...AS BULK OF ACTIVITY WILL LIFT N WITH THE WARM
FRONT. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW TSTMS...BUT BEST CHANCES OF TSTMS TO
OCCUR TONIGHT OVER THE ATLC.
&&

WINDS/LAKE WINDS...STILL LOOKS LIKE WE COULD SEE A WIND ADVISORY FOR
TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA...ESP OVER THE SC COASTAL
COUNTIES...AND PERHAPS BERKELEY AND DORCHESTER. WILL REEVALUATE THE
SITUATION AGAIN THIS AFTN...BUT FOR NOW I WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING.
HWO ALREADY ADDRESSES THIS CONCERN.

WILL KEEP WATCH FOR POSSIBLE EARLIER START TIME OF THE LWA ON LAKE
MOULTRIE...BUT FOR NOW 6 PM START TIME LOOKS GOOD. ALTHOUGH WINDS
ARE ALREADY SE-S...THIS MAY BE TEMPORARY AS WARM FRONT IS STILL
ACROSS GA AND WE COULD SEE WINDS BACK TO MORE ELY THE NEXT FEW HOURS
BEFORE VEERING AGAIN TO SE AND S WITH PASSAGE OF THE FRONT LATER
TODAY. WILL SEND AN UPDATE TO THE RECREATIONAL FCST A BIT LATER THIS
MORNING.
&&

.RIP CURRENTS...WIND FIELDS ARE HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR RIP CURRENT
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF ANY ASTRONOMICAL
INFLUENCES AND THE LACK OF ANY SWELLS WILL STILL ALLOW FOR A LOW
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS /ALBEIT ALMOST INTO THE MODERATE RISK AS PER
LOCAL WORKSHEET/.
&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY SCZ045/LAKE MOULTRIE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AMZ350-352-354-374 THRU 00Z SAT.
         GALE WARNING AMZ350-352-354-374 00Z-12Z SAT.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AMZ330 THRU 16Z SAT.

&&

JRL/33

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
330 PM EDT FRI OCT 27 2006

GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040-042>045-047>051-280730-
JENKINS-SCREVEN-CANDLER-BULLOCH-EFFINGHAM-TATTNALL-EVANS-
INLAND BRYAN-COASTAL BRYAN-INLAND CHATHAM-COASTAL CHATHAM-LONG-
INLAND LIBERTY-COASTAL LIBERTY-INLAND MCINTOSH-COASTAL MCINTOSH-
ALLENDALE-HAMPTON-INLAND COLLETON-DORCHESTER-BERKELEY-
INLAND JASPER-BEAUFORT-COASTAL COLLETON-CHARLESTON-COASTAL JASPER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MILLEN...SYLVANIA...METTER...
STATESBORO...SPRINGFIELD...REIDSVILLE...CLAXTON...PEMBROKE...
FORT MCALLISTER...SAVANNAH...TYBEE ISLAND...LUDOWICI...
HINESVILLE...HALFMOON LANDING...TOWNSEND...DARIEN...ALLENDALE...
HAMPTON...WALTERBORO...ST. GEORGE...SUMMERVILLE...MONCKS CORNER...
RIDGELAND...BEAUFORT...HILTON HEAD...EDISTO BEACH...CHARLESTON...
JASPER
330 PM EDT FRI OCT 27 2006

..DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS GEORGIA AND THE
CAROLINAS TONIGHT. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST LATE THIS EVENING...THEN CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
MORNING. WINDS JUST ABOVE THE GROUND WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN
SPEED THROUGH TONIGHT...PEAKING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A LINE OF
HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THE NUMBER OF THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. DUE TO SUCH STRONG WINDS
ALOFT...THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH. THIS EVENT COULD BE QUITE DIFFERENT FROM
MOST SOUTHEAST SEVERE WEATHER EPISODES...IN THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL
NOT BE NECESSARY TO PRODUCE DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS AT THE
SURFACE. THEREFORE...STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS COULD OCCUR WITH
LITTLE OR NO WARNING. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...TV OR YOUR LOCAL NEWS SOURCE FOR
LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. MAKE SURE YOUR NOAA WEATHER
RADIO REMAINS IN ALERT MODE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

JRL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
330 PM EDT FRI OCT 27 2006

GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040-042>045-047>051-280730-
JENKINS-SCREVEN-CANDLER-BULLOCH-EFFINGHAM-TATTNALL-EVANS-
INLAND BRYAN-COASTAL BRYAN-INLAND CHATHAM-COASTAL CHATHAM-LONG-
INLAND LIBERTY-COASTAL LIBERTY-INLAND MCINTOSH-COASTAL MCINTOSH-
ALLENDALE-HAMPTON-INLAND COLLETON-DORCHESTER-BERKELEY-
INLAND JASPER-BEAUFORT-COASTAL COLLETON-CHARLESTON-COASTAL JASPER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MILLEN...SYLVANIA...METTER...
STATESBORO...SPRINGFIELD...REIDSVILLE...CLAXTON...PEMBROKE...
FORT MCALLISTER...SAVANNAH...TYBEE ISLAND...LUDOWICI...
HINESVILLE...HALFMOON LANDING...TOWNSEND...DARIEN...ALLENDALE...
HAMPTON...WALTERBORO...ST. GEORGE...SUMMERVILLE...MONCKS CORNER...
RIDGELAND...BEAUFORT...HILTON HEAD...EDISTO BEACH...CHARLESTON...
JASPER
330 PM EDT FRI OCT 27 2006

...DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS GEORGIA AND THE
CAROLINAS TONIGHT. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST LATE THIS EVENING...THEN CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
MORNING. WINDS JUST ABOVE THE GROUND WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN
SPEED THROUGH TONIGHT...PEAKING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A LINE OF
HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THE NUMBER OF THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. DUE TO SUCH STRONG WINDS
ALOFT...THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH. THIS EVENT COULD BE QUITE DIFFERENT FROM
MOST SOUTHEAST SEVERE WEATHER EPISODES...IN THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL
NOT BE NECESSARY TO PRODUCE DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS AT THE
SURFACE. THEREFORE...STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS COULD OCCUR WITH
LITTLE OR NO WARNING. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...TV OR YOUR LOCAL NEWS SOURCE FOR
LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. MAKE SURE YOUR NOAA WEATHER
RADIO REMAINS IN ALERT MODE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

JRL