Coastal Flood Statement 10, NWS Charleston, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
324 PM EDT SUN OCT 8 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/...AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED
A WEAK LOW EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A STRONG
MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

AFTER SOME ACTIVITY THIS MORNING JUST NORTH OF CHARLESTON...THE BULK
OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS STAYED NORTH OF CWFA.
HOWEVER A PIECE OF ENERGY APPEARS TO HAVE PUSHED OFF THE GEORGIA
COAST WHICH HAS INITIALIZED SOME NEW ACTIVITY EAST OF SAVANNAH.
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP NORTH AND SPREAD INTO THE CHARLESTON
TRI-COUNTY AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE GFS SHOWS MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND NEAR
CHARLESTON SO FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ADDITIONAL BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
ASHORE LATER TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE ON
MONDAY MORNING LEAVING SOME SHOWERS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST...WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT
AND MONDAY BUT NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED THERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY
MOVES OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE SURFACE LOW ALSO SLIDES
NORTHEAST OFF THE SC AND GA COAST. ALTHOUGH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS IN THE AREA ON TUESDAY...ONSHORE FLOW AND CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE COASTLINE WEAKENS. HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR TUESDAY OVER
LAND...WHILE MAINTAINING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AS LOW AND
MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS.

THE STRONG MID WEEK COLD FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO APPROACH THE
SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY ACCORDING TO THE 12Z GFS RUN. GFS CONTINUES
TO WAFFLE ON THE TIMING OF FROPA...SINCE THE 06Z RUN HAD FROPA
OCCURRING AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED CHANCE POPS FOR
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ALL DAY THURSDAY...WHICH COULD BE NARROWED
DOWN CLOSER TO THE EVENT.

THE AXIS OF THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE EAST COAST
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...USHERING IN PERHAPS THE COLDEST
AIRMASS OF THE YEAR SO FAR. 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND ZERO
WITHIN THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT. EXTENDED GUIDANCE
IS GIVING LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
40S NEAR THE COAST...WHILE COOP GUIDANCE IS SHOWING LOWS FALLING
INTO THE UPPER 30S FURTHER INLAND. HAVE REDUCED HIGH TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY INTO THE LOWER 70S.

A LARGE SWATH OF DRY AIR FILTERS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW. THE REGION REMAINS UNDER
THE FLATTENING TROUGH THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HAVE
MAINTAINED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER PERSISTING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW REMAINS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
EXPECT SOME 6 FOOTERS TO REACH INTO THE GEORGIA OUTER WATERS SO WILL
KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOING THERE. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW EXERCISE CAUTION CRITERIA. THE LOW WILL PULL AWAY ON
MONDAY WHICH WILL BEGIN A SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS.

WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH THE COASTAL LOW
LINGERING OFFSHORE OF NC. BY WEDNESDAY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOP
AS THE OFFSHORE LOW FILLS IN AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. 12Z GFS RUN IS INDICATING THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE COASTAL
WATERS BY LATE THURSDAY. FEEL THAT TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS
POINT...THUS WILL NOT SHOW QUITE THE INCREASE IN WESTERLY WINDS ON
THURSDAY THAT THE GFS INDICATES UNTIL THERE IS A LITTLE MORE
CONSISTENCY. COLD ADVECTION THAT INITIATES FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE ENOUGH MIXING OVER THE WARMER WATERS TO
INCREASE WINDS AND SEAS TO SCA CRITERIA IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND
SCEC CRITERIA NEARSHORE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT AT KCHS WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA. MAINLY QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KSAV.

&&

.COASTAL FLOODING...HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO NOT
MENTION SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING.

HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE PREDICTED AGAIN FOR MONDAY MORNING. THE
AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STRONG MID LEVEL LOW
AND THE WEAK SURFACE LOW. EXPECT WINDS TO BE NORTHEAST IN SOUTH
CAROLINA AROUND HIGH TIDE WHICH SHOULD ADD AN ONSHORE COMPONENT OVER
THE WATER. THIS COULD LEAD TO TIDE LEVELS BEING A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
THIS MORNING NEAR CHARLESTON AND BEAUFORT. THUS...EXPECT SOME HIGH
WATER IN COASTAL AREAS WHICH COULD CAUSE FLOODING AND SIGNIFICANT
BEACH EROSION. WILL ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR
CHARLESTON...COLLETON AND BEAUFORT COUNTIES FOR MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR SCZ048>050 FROM 6 AM TO 2 PM MON.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AMZ374.

&&

SCW/WMS

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
353 PM EDT SUN OCT 08 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 AM     HIGH ASTR TIDES  HUNTING ISLAND          32.38N 80.44W
10/08/2006                   BEAUFORT           SC   PUBLIC

            WATER COVERING PARKING LOT AT HUNTING ISLAND DURING THE
            MORNING HIGH TIDE.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
403 PM EDT SUN OCT 08 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 AM     HIGH ASTR TIDES  FOLLY BEACH             32.65N 79.94W
10/08/2006                   CHARLESTON         SC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WATER CAME UP TO THE DUNE LINE AT THE WASHOUT DURING THIS
            MORNINGS HIGH TIDE BUT DID NOT OVERFLOW ONTO ASHLEY AVE.
            MODERATE EROSION ALSO OCCURRING.

&&