Wind Chill Advisory 3, NWS Caribou, ME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
324 PM EST SAT FEB 18 2006

.SYNOPSIS...INTESE LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT FURTHER AWAY FROM AREA
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF
THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN SUNDAY EVENING. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL RIDGE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT-MONDAY/...
LEANED HEAVILY W/THE GFS FOR SYNOPTIC FEATURES. BLENDED THE SKY &
POP GRIDS W/THE NAM & GFS. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE BLEND OF THE
NAM/FWC & MAV MOS & THEN GENERALLY WENT W/THE MAV-MET BLEND. TOOK
THE PREV WINDS GRIDS & MADE ADJUSTMENT PER LATEST CONDITIONS &
WHAT GUIDANCE SHOWED INTO SUNDAY.

WENT AHEAD & PUT UP A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR ENTIRE CWFA EXCEPT
THE COAST FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ALSO WILL GO AHEAD &
ISSUE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE COAST (MEZ029-030) TIL 05Z. RAINWISE &
SOME REPORTS COMING IN W/GUSTS 45-50 MPH ON THE OUTER ISLANDS. THE
SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR W/THE CONTINUATION OF A WNW FLOW WILL LEAD TO
WIND CHILL VALUES HITTING 20-30 BELOW. COLDEST READINGS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER AS MIN TEMPERATURES WILL DROP WELL BELOW ZERO (15 TO
20 BELOW) BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
READINGS IN SOME LOCALES HIT WIND CHILL WARNING CRITERIA EARLY
SUNDAY ESP EXPOSED AREAS WHERE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW. ONLY
SETBACK TO THIS WILL BE CLOUD COVER TO LINGER LONGER INTO EARLY
SUNDAY ACROSS NRN & WRN AREAS. LOOKING FOR THE WINDS TO RELAX BY
SUNDAY AS LOW IN THE MARITIMES CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT & HIGH PRES
RIDGING TAKES PLACE BY THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL
BE A BIT WARMER THE CORE OF THE REAL COLD AIR MOVES ONTO THE NE.
SOME WK WAA NOT SATURDAY.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY HAVE USED COMBINATION OF MAV/MET FOR
TEMPERATURES...DEW POINT AND WINDS OVER LAND. FOR SAME PERIOD USED
GFS SKY AND POPS. FOR GRIDS DAY 4 THRU 7 HAVE USED HPC GRIDS PER
AGREEMENT WITH ONLY CHANGES MADE TO BETTER FIT NEIGHBORING GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
A FEW STRAY SNOW SHOWER ARE EXPECTED AT CAR AND PQI...BUT VFR COND
WILL PREVAIL. THE ONLY CONCERN FOR AVIATION THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
BE THE STRONG WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
EXTENDED THE GLW TO 10Z PER COLLABORATION W/GYX & OPC. ANOTHER
SURGE OF WINDS W/THAT ARCTIC AIR MOVING OVER THE WATERS. WILL
CARRY GUSTS TO 45 KTS EARLY TONIGHT & THEN BRING THINGS DOWN BLO
GLW CRITERIA SUNDAY MORNING. SHOULD SEE SCA CONDITIONS RIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY. EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL COME DOWN BLO SCA LEVELS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT...SEAS WILL STAY UP. IN LONG TERM HAVE USED HPC
WINDS. FOR SEAS HAVE MANUALLY GENERATED GRIDS TO FIT HPC
WIND...GENERALLY FORECAST IS FOR LIGHT WINDS THRU THE EXTENDED
PERIOD AND WNA WAVE WATCH SHOWING NO INCOMING SWELL AT OR ABOVE 2
FT. SO GENERATED WAVE HEIGHTS BASED ON LOCAL WINDS UNDER
ASSUMPTION OF ONLY BACKGROUND SWELL.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR MEZ001>006-010 FROM 5 PM SATURDAY TO
     NOON SUNDAY.
  ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR MEZ011-015>017-031-032
     FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 10 AM SUNDAY.
  ...WIND ADVISORY FOR MEZ029-030 FROM 4 PM TIL MIDNIGHT.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR ANZ050 UNTIL 5 AM SUNDAY.

&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE...HEWITT
LONG TERM/MARINE...MIGNONE
AVIATION...HEWITT/NORTON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
551 AM EST SAT FEB 18 2006

ANZ050-MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032-191100-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EASTPORT ME TO STONINGTON ME OUT 25 NM-
NORTHWEST AROOSTOOK-NORTHEAST AROOSTOOK-NORTHERN SOMERSET-
NORTHERN PISCATAQUIS-NORTHERN PENOBSCOT-SOUTHEAST AROOSTOOK-
CENTRAL PISCATAQUIS-CENTRAL PENOBSCOT-SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT-
INTERIOR HANCOCK-CENTRAL WASHINGTON-COASTAL HANCOCK-
COASTAL WASHINGTON-SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS-NORTHERN WASHINGTON-
551 AM EST SAT FEB 18 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL COMBINE
TO PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS THROUGH THIS MORNING. A
WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN MAINE THROUGH
11 AM EST. SEE THE PRODUCT PWMWSWCAR FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. A
WIND ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT THROUGH 5 PM EST TODAY. PLEASE
REFER TO THE PRODUCT PWMNPWCAR FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS INTO TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS WILL AGAIN BE A FACTOR LATER TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY AS BRISK WINDS COMBINE WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES TO
PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER REPORTS OF ANY POWER OUTAGES OR WIND DAMAGE ARE REQUESTED.

KHW