Wind Advisory 12, NWS Caribou, ME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
322 PM EDT WED OCT 11 2006

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT WITH
A WAVE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ON THE FRONT AND MOVING THROUGH THE
STATE ON THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE
THURSDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE
ON FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MAJOR CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE STG WINDS ON THE COAST &
POTENTIAL FOR HVY RAFL. DECIDED TO GO W/HIGH WIND WARNING FOR
COASTAL ZONES 29-30 LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...GFS & THE NAM-WRF CLOSE W/BRINGING
BULK OF QPF INTO EASTERN MAINE ESP DOWNEAST & THE COAST & STG WINDS
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED BY A FEW HRS
W/THE GFS BEING FASTER IN BRINGING QPF & STGR WINDS IN. LATEST
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED BULK OF RAFL STILL BACK ACROSS WRN & NRN NYS
DOWN INTO NJ. GOOD ALIGNMENT PER BUFKIT PROFILES W/SE WIND INCG UP
THRU 7K FT & VEERING MORE SLY THRU 10 KT FT. WARM NOSE PUNCHING
IN ALONG W/50-60KT JET. THERE IS THE STABILITY FACTOR TO DEAL
WITH. HOWEVER...HVY RAFL COULD ALLOW THOSE WINDS TO GET FLUSHED
DOWN TO THE SFC ESP RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. COULD SEE GUSTS HIT 60
MPH ON COAST ESP THE OUTER ISLANDS. WINDS WILL TAILOR OFF AS ONE
TRAVELS FURTHER INLAND W/THE HELP OF TERRAIN BLOCKING THE SE WINDS
& STABLE AIRMASS. USED THE HPC QPF GRIDS & MADE ADJUSTMENTS IN
AREAL COVERAGE WITH SLUG OF HVY RAFL AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS
INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS. DECIDED ON 1.5+ INCHES BY THURSDAY
EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS W/CLOSE TO 1.25 INCHES
IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MAINE S OF CAR & PQI.

AXIS OF HVY RAFL WILL NE THURSDAY MORNING AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY &
WEAK LOW PRES WAVE MOVE ON THROUGH. STEADY RAFL WILL TAPER OFF TO
SHOWERS AS WINDS SHIFT TO MORE SSW IN THE AFTERNOON. PREFERRED THE
MAV MOS FOR MAX TEMPS W/AN ADJUSTMENT ON THE LOWER END.

THINGS BEGIN TO DRY OUT THURSDAY NIGHT AS SYSTEM PULLS WELL INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WILL HAVE DEAL W/ALOT OF CLOUDS AS UPPER
TROF REMAINS WELL W OF THE CWA. PULLED BACK ON COLDER AIR ARRIVING
INTO CWA BY 6 HRS OR SO. THEREFORE...THURSDAY NIGHT MINS WERE
ADJUSTED UPWARD AS WELL AS THE DWPTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN SHAPING UP FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
TIME FRAME. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION DURING
FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM WRF DO SHOW A WEAK WAVE MOVING
NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE COAST. THE NAM WRF WAS FURTHUR
WEST WITH THIS FEATURE COMPARED TO THE GFS. LEANED WITH THE GFS
SOLUTION AND KEPT THINGS DRY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL VORTEX ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. THIS WILL KEEP A
RELATIVELY DRY W TO SW FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER WEAK SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATING THRU THIS FLOW
FROM TIME TO TIME COULD RESULT IN A FEW DAYTIME SPRINKLES OR
NIGHTTIME FLURRIES BUT INDICATED ONLYSLIGHTT CHANCE IN THE GRIDS.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
STARTED OUT W/MVFR CIGS ACROSS KBG TO KBHB LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING & THEN WENT FOR IFR BY 04Z AS RAFL MOVES INTO
THE AREA. FURTHER N...STARTED THINGS OUT IN THE VFR CATEGORY &
THEN LOWERED CIGS DOWN TO MVFR BY 05Z. WENT W/IFR CONDITIONS
EVERYWHERE AFT 07Z RIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING TIL 16Z.

&&

.MARINE...
KEPT GLW IN PLACE. WINDS 15-20 ATTM. SEAS HAVE COME UP TO 5 FT &
WILL CONTINUE TO INC W/INCG SELY WINDS. ADDED GUSTS TO 45 KT LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU W/THAT TIGHT PRES GRADIENT. BROUGHT WINDS
DOWN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS WINDS GO MORE SSWY & WILL DEC DOWN TO
SCA LEVELS. NAM-WRF12 WINDS WERE USED INTO THU MORNING & THEN WENT
W/THE GFS W/ADJUSTMENTS THU NIGHT TO TAILOR THEM DOWN A BIT. PREV
WAVE HEIGHT GRIDS WERE USED W/ADJUSTMENTS UPWARD TONIGHT INTO
EARLY THU DUE STG SE WINDS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR MEZ029-030 FROM 2 AM THURSDAY TO NOON
     THURSDAY.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR ANZ050 FROM 3 AM THURSDAY TO 6 PM THURSDAY.
&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE...HEWITT
LONG TERM/MARINE...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
120 PM EDT WED OCT 11 2006

ANZ050-MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032-121100-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EASTPORT ME TO STONINGTON ME OUT 25 NM-
NORTHWEST AROOSTOOK-NORTHEAST AROOSTOOK-NORTHERN SOMERSET-
NORTHERN PISCATAQUIS-NORTHERN PENOBSCOT-SOUTHEAST AROOSTOOK-
CENTRAL PISCATAQUIS-CENTRAL PENOBSCOT-SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT-
INTERIOR HANCOCK-CENTRAL WASHINGTON-COASTAL HANCOCK-
COASTAL WASHINGTON-SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS-NORTHERN WASHINGTON-
120 PM EDT WED OCT 11 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A HIGH WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON
COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT. THESE WINDS COULD POSSIBLY REACH
SPEEDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH ALONG THE COAST.

OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY FOR SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR
40 KNOTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

GALES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY STRONG WINDS RIGHT ALONG THE
COAST. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BEHIND THE WARM FRONT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND DOWNEAST MAINE. IN THE
MEANTIME...SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...REACHING UP TO ONE AND ONE HALF
INCHES IN SOME AREAS...WILL OCCUR ACROSS ALL OF THE REGION
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER WIND AND RAIN REPORTS MAY BE NEEDED ON THURSDAY.

HEWITT