Severe Thunderstorm Warning 92, NWS Caribou, ME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
437 PM EDT FRI AUG 4 2006

.SYNOPSIS....
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE THIS
EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST JUST
IN ADVANCE OF THE THIS FRONT WHILE IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
LATER THIS THIS EVENING COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON THE CWA IS CAUGHT BETWEEN TWO FRONTAL SYSTEMS. THE
FIRST IS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT JUST OFFSHORE THE MAINE COAST
AND WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RAIN IN THE DOWNEAST REGION TODAY.
THIS FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TREK EAST AND NORTH OUT OF THE
AREA. THE SECOND IS A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC JUST TO THE
WEST OF THE CWA. INSTABILITY AND LARGE SCALE LIFT ARE COMBINING TO
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF NORTHERN MAINE.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS THEN END
WHILE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER TONIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR
RESIDES JUST ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT. THEREFORE...THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN A MILD AND RELATIVELY NICE
WEEKEND. COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES OVER THE AREA AND STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING IS LIKELY TO RESULT. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
BACK IN ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN MAINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS REGARDING SEVERAL DISTURBANCES
TRACKING NORTH OF THE REGION. FOR NOW...EXPECT THESE DISTURBANCES
TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...IF THEY WERE TO TRACK A
LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH...SHOWERS COULD CLIP NORTHERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION FRIDAY...ALLOWING WARMER AIR TO BEGIN RETURNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS MONDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...THOUGH SEVERAL COOL NIGHTS COULD OCCUR MID WEEK
WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALLOWING FOR GOOD NIGHTTIME RADIATIONAL
COOLING.

&&

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL MAINE THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL PRODUCE
LOCALLY LOWER CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES. EXPECT INTERVALS OF MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS WITH ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. COLD FRONT PASSAGE
TONIGHT WILL SWITCH WINDS TO NORTHERLY BY MIDNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED.

LONG TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. VISIBILITIES COULD BE
REDUCED AT TIMES MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND
PATCHY FOG. PATCHY FOG COULD LINGER EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE...LERICOS
LONG TERM/MARINE...NORCROSS
AVIATION...LERICOS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
309 AM EDT FRI AUG 4 2006

ANZ050-MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032-050900-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EASTPORT ME TO STONINGTON ME OUT 25 NM-
NORTHWEST AROOSTOOK-NORTHEAST AROOSTOOK-NORTHERN SOMERSET-
NORTHERN PISCATAQUIS-NORTHERN PENOBSCOT-SOUTHEAST AROOSTOOK-
CENTRAL PISCATAQUIS-CENTRAL PENOBSCOT-SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT-
INTERIOR HANCOCK-CENTRAL WASHINGTON-COASTAL HANCOCK-
COASTAL WASHINGTON-SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS-NORTHERN WASHINGTON-
309 AM EDT FRI AUG 4 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TODAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH SEVERE
LIMITS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

DUDA

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