Severe Thunderstorm Warning 48, NWS Caribou, ME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
236 PM EDT SAT JUL 15 2006

.SYNOPSIS...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE STATE WILL
MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH
OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY AND THEN A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
KCBW 88D SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS STARTING TO FIRE UP IN
ADVANCE OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SHOWERS
AND TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING AS THE SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS NORTH AND WEST
ZONES WHERE AXIS OF GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL BE FOCUSED. WITH PWS
RUNNING AROUND 1.5 WILL CONTINUE TO REFERENCE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AS WELL. WIND FIELDS ALOFT MODERATE SO WILL CONTINUE TO
REFERENCE GUSTY WINDS IN ANY TSTMS AS WELL. WITH FREEZING LVL RATHER
HIGH THINK HAIL WONT BE PRIMARY THREAT. SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE
SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH MOVE TO THE EAST. EXPECT PATCHY FOG
AS WELL.

COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH EARLY SUNDAY
OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND MAINLY DRY. CANT RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTM DURING THE AFTN.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST SUNDAY
EVENING. WILL MENTION THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE
NORTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THIS FEATURE.

ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. WITH LOW LVL
MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE AND WEAK VORTS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS NORTH FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS MON AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

USED THE HPC GRIDS PRETTY MUCH AS IS DUE TO PSBL STG TO ISOLD SVR
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. MODIFICATIONS VERY
MADE TO SKY & WIND GRIDS ESP BY MID WEEK (WED INTO THU) W/HIGH
PRES RIDGING ACROSS THE NERN U.S. & SUB-TROPICAL SYSM PER GFS &
CANADIAN GEM PASSING WELL TO THE S.

PULLING BACK INTO MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...RATHER
ACTIVE PATTERN W/A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE
CWA. WENT W/TSRA BASED AS AIRMASS LOOKS TO REMAIN UNSTABLE
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. DWPTS RUNNING IN THE 60S & MID-LVLS REMAINING
UNSTABLE SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE BOTH MONDAY EVENING &
THEN AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE BY LATE IN THE WEEK W/YET
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS & TSTMS.

MODIFICATIONS WERE MADE TO DWPTS TO BRING THEM UP INTO THE 60S
ACROSS THE BOARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY & THEN BLENDED THEM
W/HPC GUIDANCE. ACCEPTED HPC TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE W/LITTLE
MODIFICATION. MIDNIGHT CREW MADE NEED TO TWEAK TEMPERATURES UP ESP
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR MORE SUNSHINE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ON TAP FOR THE CROWN OF
MAINE FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE VCNTY OF BGR. OUTSIDE OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS VFR CIGS AND VSBY ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES. 4
TO 5 MILES IN FOG WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT IN AREAS THAT GET
ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES EXPECTED NEXT SEVRL DAYS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE...DUDA
LONG TERM/MARINE...HEWITT
AVIATION...NORTON