Severe Thunderstorm Warning 25, NWS Caribou, ME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
255 AM EDT MON JUL 10 2006

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MOVE SLOWLY EAST OF THE REGION BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
WEST ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS APPEARED REASONABLE CONSISTENT WITH AMPLITUDE AND TIMING OF
S/WV FEATURES IN THE SHORT RANGE...SPCLY IN REGARD TO RNFL POTENTIAL
THIS AFT/EVE AND AGAIN TUE AFT/EVE. ALTHOUGH BOTH MODELS INDICATE
MOD INSTABILITY BOTH PDS...THE LACK OF WIDESPREAD COHERENT MID/UPPER
LVL DYNAMICS PRECLDE GOING WITH CATEGORICAL POPS WITH EITHER EVENT
ATTM. HOWEVER...ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS PRESENT TO GO WITH LIKELY
POPS BOTH EVENTS AND TO INCLUDE INCLUDE ENHANCED TSTM WORDING FOR
WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HVY RNFL FOR ISOLD STRONGEST STORMS THIS
AFT/EVE. ENHANCED TSTMS WORDING MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN FOR TUE
AFT/EVE AS ANOTHER S/WV APCHS FROM THE GREAT LKS... BUT ITS A
LITTLE EARLY TO INCLUDE IN THE FCST ATTM. BEST QPF SHOULD OCCUR IN
THE LATE AFT AND ERLY EVE PDS OF BOTH DAYS WHEN HIER RNFL RATES
OCCURS WITH THE MOST INTENSE TSTM ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...MOST FCST
ELEMENTS A BLEND OF WRF/GFS DATA WITH HI/LOW TEMPS A BLEND OF MOS
GUIDANCE AND GFS ENS TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THRU THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THIS PERIOD WITH SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDER STORMS POSSIBLE IN SOME
AREAS AS IT MOVES THROUGH. HAVE BASED THIS FORECAST ON A
COMBINATION OF THE GFS AND NAM. THE DEW POINT...TEMPERATURES...
POPS AND WINDS BASED ON A MAV/MET COMBINATION. HAVE USED NAM12
TEMPERATURES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THE SKY GRIDS AND QPF BASED
ON 50/50 BLEND OF THE GFS AND NAM. THE SKY GRIDS AND QPF GRIDS
HAVE BEEN MODIFIED TO BETTER FIT THE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR WITH PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG BRIEFLY POSSIBLE AT A COUPLE
OF TAF SITES ERLY THIS MORN...AND PERHAPS LONGER LASTING AND MORE
WIDESPREAD LATE TNGT IN THE WAKE OF ANY SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY.

&&

.MARINE...
MARGINAL SCA WVS WILL LIKELY CONT THRU THE DAY TDY AS SWELL FROM
EXITING LOW PRES IN THE OPEN ATLC CONT TO AFFECT THE WATERS...BUT
WVS SHOULD DIMINISH SLIGHTLY TO BELOW SCA TNGT INTO TUE AS THE
LOW MOVES FURTHER E INTO THE OPEN ATLC AND THE SWELL COMPONENT
DIMINISHES.

LONG TERM: FOR WINDS HAVE INITIALIZED THE GRIDS WITH NAM12 SINCE
THE GFS HAS HAD A HISTORY OF OVER-FORECASTING WIND SPEEDS LAST
SEVERAL DAYS. FOR SEAS EXPECT THE SOUTHERLY SWELL TO CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE COMBINED SEAS. EVEN THOUGH THE GFS WIND SPEED
FORECASTS HAVE BEEN TOO HIGH IN OUR WATERS DUE TO THE MARINE
INVERSION...OBSERVATIONS SHOWING THE WNA BASED ON GFS WINDS
REASONABLE SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE. THE WNA HAS TRENDED DOWN
WITH MAX WAVE HEIGHTS LAST SEVERAL RUNS AND SEEMS TO BE CONVERGING
ON A REASONABLE SOLUTION. SO WILL POPULATE WAVE GRIDS WITH WNA
WITH NO MODIFICATIONS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR ANZ050 UNTIL
      6 PM THIS EVE.
&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE...VJN
LONG TERM/MARINE...MIGNONE
AVIATION...NORTON

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