Severe Thunderstorm Warning 20, NWS Caribou, ME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
204 PM EDT SUN JUL 2 2006

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM NORTHERN MAINE EAST INTO
THE MARITIMES WILL PULL A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
A SMALL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE STATE ON MONDAY
THEN ANOTHER LOW TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL PULL
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA TUESDAY. THIS LOW WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...LOW PRESSURE
CROSSING NORTHERN MAINE EARLY THIS EVENING WILL BRING SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW SMALL EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE SOME SUNSHINE AND WARMER AIR WAS
ABLE TO WORK IN. AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
A SMALL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS
WILL BRING A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ON MONDAY. A NEW AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL PULL MOISTURE BACK INTO
THE REGION TUESDAY BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONGER
DIFFERENTIAL ADVECTION THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF THE
AREA TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...ECMWF AND GFS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE LONGER TERM KEEPING TROF ALONG EASTERN SEABOARD
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. GFS DOES DEVELOP A LOW OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST ON FRIDAY BUT ECMWF JUST DEVELOPS A WAVE ON THE
FRONT. I AGREE WITH HPC IN FAVORING THE ECMWF AND HAVE LOADED THE HPC
GUIDANCE FOR THE LONG TERM. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH FRIDAY WHEN THE TROFFING MOVES EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO MAINE LATE ON FRIDAY
AND REMAIN THERE INTO THE WEEKEND GIVING A RESPITE FROM THE
UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...IFR CEILINGS OVER THE NORTH THIS EVENING WILL IMPROVE
TO VFR LATER TONIGHT AS LOW CLOUDS MIX OUT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DOWNEAST THROUGH TOMORROW. WATCH OUT FOR ISOLATED TSTMS
EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS OVER 5 FT WILL
WARRENT KEEPING SCA THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER
TONIGHT THEN SEAS WILL COME DOWN ON MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
AWAY. MONDAY SHOULD THEN TURN OUT TO BE A PLEASANT DAY ON THE
WATER AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER. IN THE LONGER TERM A WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ050 UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY.
&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE...BLOOMER
LONG TERM/MARINE...WOLFE
AVIATION...WEITLICH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
557 AM EDT SUN JUL 2 2006

ANZ050-MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032-031000-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EASTPORT ME TO STONINGTON ME OUT 25 NM-
NORTHWEST AROOSTOOK-NORTHEAST AROOSTOOK-NORTHERN SOMERSET-
NORTHERN PISCATAQUIS-NORTHERN PENOBSCOT-SOUTHEAST AROOSTOOK-
CENTRAL PISCATAQUIS-CENTRAL PENOBSCOT-SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT-
INTERIOR HANCOCK-CENTRAL WASHINGTON-COASTAL HANCOCK-
COASTAL WASHINGTON-SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS-NORTHERN WASHINGTON-
557 AM EDT SUN JUL 2 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN MAINE.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OKLAHOMA HAS PUT THE STATE
OF MAINE IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. LARGE HAIL IS
ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING AS A FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

AREA WEATHER SPOTTERS AND AMATEUR RADIO OPERATORS ARE URGED TO
RELAY ANY RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN CARIBOU.

HEWITT

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