High Wind Watch 8, NWS Caribou, ME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
459 AM EST THU NOV 16 2006

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY AND TONIGHT...REACHING SOUTHERN QUEBEC PROVINCE LATE TONIGHT.
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NORTH FRIDAY...DRAWING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS TODAY WILL BECOME A STEADY RAIN TONIGHT.
THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES. A
THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE FRIDAY ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS.
THE RAIN WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THIS LOW TODAY BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST AREA. LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL/DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S
NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S DOWNEAST.

THE LOW WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NORTH TO SOUTHERN QUEBEC PROVINCE
TONIGHT...DRAWING A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TOWARD
THE FORECAST AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST WHERE WINDS WILL
BE ONSHORE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO FALL TONIGHT WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S NORTH TO THE MID 50S DOWNEAST.

THE LOW WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NORTH ACROSS QUEBEC PROVINCE
FRIDAY...DRAWING THE COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
MODELS INDICATE A STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET...50 TO 60 KNOTS
AT THE 925 MB LEVEL...CROSSING THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT. THE STRONG ONSHORE WINDS WILL HELP ADVECT
ABUNDANT MOISTURE INLAND ACROSS THE REGION. THE MOISTURE INFLUX
AND FORCING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE RAIN
FRIDAY...WHICH COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES. A THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO
POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY. THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL
ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE DOWNEAST COAST AND ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT WHERE WINDS WILL BE
ONSHORE. STRONG WINDS COULD ALSO EXTEND ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST
AREAS. WITH THE GROUND ALREADY WET...THE WINDS COULD MORE EASILY
UPROOT TREES. THUS...HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR
COASTAL/INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS FOR FRIDAY. FURTHER
NORTH...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DEEPER INVERSION WHICH
SHOULD KEEP THE WINDS MORE ELEVATED ABOVE THE SURFACE.
HOWEVER...GUSTY WINDS WILL STILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 50S NORTH...WITH UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DOWNEAST...IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
EVENING WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS FRIDAY EVENING DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A RELATIVELY DRY WEEKEND
WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING A BIT COOLER THAN OF LATE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. A WEAK COOL FRONT MAY CROSS THE
REGION BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS
TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH MVFR/VFR VISIBILITIES ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS. VISIBILITIES WILL LOWER IN ALL AREAS LATER TONIGHT IN
DEVELOPING RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.
WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT...REACHING GALE LEVELS LATE.
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT
WHILE THE LOW LEVEL JET CROSSES THE WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. A GALE WARNING IS THEN IN EFFECT FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN/FOG TODAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

LONG TERM: SCA FOR SEAS WILL PROBABLY BE REQUIRED SATURDAY AND
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WATER LEVELS ARE STILL RUNNING HIGH ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS
FROM THE RECENT HEAVY RAINS AND WITH ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN
EXPECTED FRIDAY...HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF NORTHWEST AROOSTOOK COUNTY WHERE LESSER RAIN IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     MEZ002>006-010-011-015>017-029>032.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR MEZ015>017-029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ050.

&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE...NORCROSS
LONG TERM/MARINE...DUDA
AVIATION...WEITLICH/NORCROSS
HYDROLOGY...NORCROSS